Deep Dive: China shifts to automation, industrial robots to address shrinking workforce and stay competitive

China has 12½ times more robots in its workforce than expected, according to an independent think tank in Washington, an indication that Chinese workers are being replaced by robots at the fastest rate in the world.

“China does not yet appear to be leading in robotic innovation, but … it is likely only a matter of time before Chinese robotics companies catch up to the leading edge,” the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) said in a report released last month.

The decision to replace a human worker with a robot is often about saving money. It follows that developed countries with high wages would have greater penetration rates of robots than lower-wage countries.

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But, the ITIF found that China is using automation far more than expected based on what workers get paid in manufacturing, with 12½ times more robots in use than predicted – a big jump from 1.6 times more in 2017.

The upwards trend was inferred from the data in the report. “China is already the largest industrial robot market in the world. In 2022, 52 per cent of all industrial robots in the world were installed in China, up from 14 per cent a decade earlier,” said Robert D. Atkinson, ITIF president and author of the report.

China’s booming robotics market could be traced to robust domestic demand and strong policy support, according to the government.

Robots are now used across vast sectors of China’s economy, including manufacturing, logistics, hospitality, healthcare and construction. “China’s automobile industry is now the largest in the world, which is also a boon to Chinese robotic adoption, as the auto industry is a major purchaser of industrial robots,” Atkinson said.

The ITIF report also pointed out that China’s robotics industry still relied heavily on foreign technologies, and remained dependent on many imported parts that were predominantly made by companies in Japan, Germany and Switzerland.

Despite the positive growth, Atkinson noted two areas that China still lags in. First is software, which constitutes about 80 per cent of a robot’s value and is a key differentiator of robot quality and versatility, was a weak point for Chinese companies, he said.

The other was innovation. Many automation products from China resembled those of Fanuc in Japan or Boston Robotics in the US, indicating an inclination to imitate over original development.

Staff writers

1. What findings did the ITIF report reveal about China’s robotics development?

(1) China has 12.5 times more robots in its workforce than expected.
(2) China has applied robots in the manufacturing, software, and innovation sectors.
(3) China is the world’s largest industrial robot market, with 52 per cent of all industrial robots installed in the country in 2022.
(4) China is dependent on imported parts made by companies in the US and South Korea.

A. (1) and (2) only
B. (3) and (4) only
C. (1) and (3) only
D. (2) and (4) only

2. State TWO factors that contribute to China’s booming robotics market mentioned in News.

3. What are the two weaknesses of China’s robotics industry? How might these weaknesses affect its development? Explain using News and your own knowledge.

1. Which country and industry are represented in the illustration, and how can you tell?

2. What message might the artist be trying to send about the topic?

1. List TWO observations from the chart.

2. Using Chart, Issue and Glossary, explain how demographic shifts have impacted China’s adoption of industrial robots.

China’s elderly population is rising, but low pay, lack of advancement means there aren’t enough caregivers

• Robotic manufacturing looms large as a potential answer to China’s shrinking labour force and ageing population

• Report estimated that AI and robots could displace 26 per cent of jobs in China over the next two decades while also creating an additional 90 million jobs by 2037

China has expanded its use of industrial robots to climb the industrial chain, with industry insiders and manufacturers saying advanced technology and smart manufacturing are key to sidestepping geopolitical complications and coping with the country’s inevitable demographic changes.

The world’s second-largest economy aims to double its 2020 robot density in the manufacturing sector by 2025 and deploy over 100 applications and solutions for the technology.

Using robots is one way to consolidate the region’s industrial chains and protect against relocation to places with lower labour costs, such as Southeast Asia or parts of China that are further inland.

The trend toward automation comes with demographic challenges, including a low fertility rate and a rapidly ageing society. China’s working-age population – defined in the country as those between 16 and 59 – fell to 875.6 million in 2022 from 896.4 million in 2019, while its population above 65 rose to 209.78 million last year from 176 million in 2019.

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“Ageing is just one of the factors,” said Luo Jun, secretary general of the Asian Manufacturing Forum, a government think tank.

“More importantly, it is the ever-expanding need for industrial transformation and upgrading which will lead to the growth rate of China’s industrial robots being first in the world and remaining so.”

Luo said putting robots in a leading role will allow China to maintain its robust industrial system as it competes with emerging markets seeking to challenge China’s status as the world’s factory.

According to a 2017 report by PwC, artificial intelligence and related technologies such as robots, drones, and autonomous vehicles could displace 26 per cent of jobs in China over the next two decades.

The report estimated that it could also create jobs by boosting productivity and real income and spending levels, creating an additional 90 million jobs by 2037.

But some demographers doubt automation’s ability to counter the country’s labour problems.

“Automation helps upgrade manufacturing and the supply chain, but it does little to help domestic consumption and the ageing problem,” said independent demographer Huang Wenzheng.

In the long run, a shrinking population is more likely to lead to a relative decline in gross domestic product per capita and extraordinary talent, he added.

Staff writers

1. Which of the following statements about China’s trend toward automation are true?

(1) China aims to double its 2020 robot density in the manufacturing sector in five years.
(2) Advanced technology and smart manufacturing are crucial for coping with demographic changes.
(3) Using robots helps consolidate industrial chains and protect against relocation.
(4) Ageing is the main reason for the automation trend.

A. (1), (2), (3) only
B. (1), (3), (4) only
C. (2), (3), (4) only
D. all of the above

2. According to Luo, what is the key reason for China’s automation trend? How does centring the use and development of robots address this need?

3. To what extent do you agree with demographer Huang Wenzheng’s statement? Explain using News, Issue, and your own knowledge.

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automation: the process of using technology, such as computer programs or robotics, to achieve a particular outcome while reducing human intervention.

industrial robot: a machine that is programmed to automatically perform production-related tasks in industrial environments, such as a robot on a factory line

smart manufacturing: using advanced technology, such as AI and cloud connectivity, to increase the efficiency and agility of traditional manufacturing processes

demographic changes: shifts in population over time, such as in age or socioeconomic status. Collecting this information can help lawmakers make policies and prepare for any potential impacts on society and the economy.

fertility rate: the number of children a woman can be expected to have in her lifetime. According to estimates from the China Population and Development Research Centre, China’s fertility rate dropped to 1.09 in 2022, down from 1.3 in 2020.

working-age population: the number of people who could participate in the workforce, usually defined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development as those aged 15 to 64. China’s working-age population fell to 875.6 million in 2022 from 896.4 million in 2019.

gross domestic product: abbreviated as GDP, it is the total value of goods produced and services provided in a country during one year. This number is an important indicator of a country’s economic performance.

News

1. C
2. Robust domestic demand and strong policy support
3. Software development and innovation are two weaknesses in China’s robotics industry. One consequence of lagging in software development is its impact on the quality and versatility of robots. This limitation creates challenges in developing advanced robotic systems that can meet diverse industrial needs, thus reducing the competitiveness of Chinese products in the global market. Regarding innovation, copying foreign companies’ products limits China’s capacity to develop unique and groundbreaking technologies that differentiate it from competitors. As a result, it impedes the development of China’s robotics industry and its ability to become a global leader in the field. (accept other reasonable answers)

Illustration

1. The panda robot and the five stars on the red production line represent China and its manufacturing industry. They are both symbols of China.

2. The author expresses a positive attitude towards the use of industrial robots in the workplace, as depicted by the panda crossing its arms with a smile on its face while overseeing the machines’ operations.

Chart

1. China is projected to experience a significant decline in its working-age population over the next two decades. By 2030, the working population is expected to decrease by 26 million; by 2050, a further decline of 148 million is anticipated.

In contrast, other major regions like Africa, India, and the US will witness an increase in their working-age populations during the same period. Africa, in particular, is projected to add 206 million individuals to the workforce by 2030, with an additional 560 million expected by 2050.

2. With a low fertility rate and an ageing population, China is projected to experience a significant decrease in its working-age population over the coming decades, potentially reducing its competitiveness. Meanwhile, regions like India and Africa, which will see substantial increases in their working-age populations, stand to benefit from economic growth and industrial advancement.

In response to these demographic changes and challenges, China has prioritised automation and widely adopted industrial robots. It aims to address the anticipated labour shortage and mitigate potential geopolitical complications while safeguarding its competitiveness and status as the world’s factory. (accept other reasonable answers)

Issue

1. A
2. The key reason for China’s automation trend is that it needs to maintain its robust industrial system and compete with emerging markets. Placing robots in a leading role helps China address this need by enhancing its industrial efficiency, productivity, and competitiveness. By leveraging robotics and automation, China can adapt to the labour shortages associated with the changing demographics, ensuring its position as the world’s factory.
3. To a large extent, I agree with Huang’s view that automation may not effectively address the challenges posed by the changing labour market.

The estimate that technology could displace 26 per cent of jobs in China over the next two decades raises concerns about income inequality and reduced purchasing power for affected individuals, which could impact domestic consumption.

While it is true that automation can create additional job opportunities, there is a potential mismatch between the skills required for these new jobs and the skills possessed by elderly workers and those with lower levels of education. This could lead to reduced competitiveness and limited employment opportunities for these groups, widening income inequality.

Furthermore, addressing the needs of an ageing population requires more than just technological advancements. Healthcare services, social support systems, and policies tailored to the needs of the elderly are crucial aspects that automation alone may not fully address. (accept other reasonable answers)