South China Sea: how ideological differences between Philippines and China could heat up tensions in disputed waters

The countries’ opposing ideologies amid clashing sovereignty claims could lead to years of militarisation and confrontation in the region if not contained, analysts warn
Manila has been boosting defence ties with various countries with the aim of building ‘collective deterrence’ in the event of conflict in the region

The Philippines

Maria Siow

Published: 10:00am, 26 Jan 2024

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The recent trading of barbs between China and the Philippines over ideological differences highlights the “perennial mistrust” between the two neighbours, experts say, noting that their disparate approaches to democracy and authoritarianism are likely to further escalate tensions in the South China Sea.

After Taiwan’s ruling-party candidate Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in the island’s presidential election earlier this month, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr congratulated Lai, referring to the latter as president.

This earned a rebuke from China’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, who said Marcos Jnr should “read more books to properly understand the ins and outs of the Taiwan issue”.

In response, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr lashed out at Mao for “insulting” his president and stooping to “low and gutter-level talk”.

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Describing his country as one that “[enjoys] the privileges, rights and freedoms of a democratic society”, Teodoro Jnr said it was unsurprising that “an agent of a party and system of government incompatible with our way of life … would go that far and that low”.

The worsening tussle over ideological differences highlighted “the perennial mistrust and unclear expectations” between the two neighbours, said Chester Cabalza, a security strategist and founding president of the International Development and Security Cooperation (IDSC), a think tank in Manila.

The contrast between democracy and authoritarianism felt like “déjà vu” from the Cold War in that it might lead to “years of militarisation and confrontation in the region if not contained”, he added.

“It certainly opens a grand debate of suspicion,” Cabalza said, adding that the “unfurling of a complex geopolitical juggernaut and opposing ideology” might ignite “conflict, intolerance and rivalry”.

Jaehyon Lee, a Southeast Asia expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said the framing of opposing ideologies amid clashing sovereignty claims would heighten tensions in the South China Sea.

“It effectively reduces room for negotiation or compromise,” he said.

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Tensions in the South China Sea have risen precipitously of late, particularly between China and the Philippines, whose forces have engaged in numerous confrontations in recent months while officials trade accusations about which side is responsible for creating conflict in the disputed waterway.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, took a different view, saying that democracy versus authoritarianism was not a useful lens to explain the South China Sea’s “dynamics”.

He noted that China and Vietnam, both communist countries, waged war over the Paracels in 1974 and Johnson South Reef in 1988.

The former was undertaken by Vietnam to expel the Chinese navy from the vicinity, while the latter involved an altercation between Chinese and Vietnamese forces over who would control the Johnson South Reef in the Union Banks region of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

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Pitlo said Manila was also negotiating a separate code of conduct with Vietnam over the South China Sea and was looking to finalise a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between their respective coastguards ahead of Marcos Jnr’s planned visit to Vietnam next week.

“Shared interests or common threat perceptions, not ideology, provides common ground for the two fellow Asean claimants,” Pitlo said.

On Tuesday, the Philippine Coast Guard said in a statement that Vietnam’s standing deputy minister of foreign affairs, Nguyen Minh Vu, visited its headquarters and met its deputy commandant for administration, Vice-Admiral Allan Victor Dela Vega.

During the meeting, both sides discussed the MOU aimed at strengthening “strategic partnership and cooperation”, as well as “promoting, preserving, and protecting” their mutual interest in the region.

A Philippine Coast Guard personnel looks through binoculars while conducting a resupply mission for Filipino troops stationed at a grounded warship in the South China Sea, on October 4, 2023. Photo: Reuters

Collective deterrence

Manila is certainly not relying on ideological rhetoric to counter China’s aggression in the South China Sea. In recent months, the Philippines has strengthened defence cooperation with countries as diverse as Australia, Canada, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain and the United States.

The latest defence pact was signed with Canada last Friday, a move that defence minister Teodoro said could lead to a troop pact between the two countries.

Earlier this month, the Philippines signed an MOU with Britain pledging to strengthen cooperation, particularly in the areas of defence and military education, as well as in training and capacity building.

IDSC’ Cabalza said Manila was expanding its “security cordon” with the goal of “forming a coalition for collective deterrence in the name of global security” and to maintain a rules-based order in the disputed waterway.

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Asan Institute’s Lee said Manila’s defence pacts with multiple countries that offered “minimal deterrence power” would provide indirect help, should there be a conflict in the region.

However, a direct role in a conflict between any Southeast Asian countries and China in the South China Sea would require “more than simple defence cooperation”, Lee said.

The possibility for a “mutual defence agreement or treaty” where countries pledge to assist allies in conflict was slim, Lee added, given Southeast Asian countries’ negative view of “military alliance arrangements”.

Pitlo from the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation said Manila was leveraging its strategic location in return for military aid or security guarantees to quickly shore up the country’s armed forces and coastguard, as well as strengthen deterrence capabilities.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has allocated greater funding for defence and maritime security in the 2024 budget. Photo: AP

Last month, Marcos Jnr signed the 2024 national budget, which allocates greater funding for defence and maritime security, to the tune of US$4.1 billion. It represents a double-digit increase from the previous year’s allocation.

Pitlo added that the contribution to Manila’s military modernisation through defence cooperation with other countries would have to be weighed against the concern of having more foreign aerial and naval vessels operating out of and around the Philippines.

“The attendant peril [will be] more frequent and closer encounters and possible miscalculation, especially between US and Chinese vessels and aircraft,” Pitlo said.