Weak Malay support continues to plague PM Anwar’s government as ‘Dubai Move’ talk refuses to die
- PM Anwar Ibrahim is using the ‘Dubai Move’ talk to divert attention from his administration which is riddled with ‘incompetence’, says one opposition MP
- Analysts say the government’s poor ratings among Malays stems from a failure to convince them their rights will continue to be protected by Anwar’s multiracial administration
Threadbare support among Malaysia’s ethnic Malay majority continues to stalk Anwar Ibrahim’s administration, experts say, shaping the prime minister’s policies as his second year in power starts with rumours of an attempt to oust him after a clandestine meeting in Dubai.
Talk of a so-called “Dubai Move” surfaced in late December after anti-corruption authorities seized control of a skyscraper in Kuala Lumpur as part of a corruption probe into Daim Zainuddin, a veteran politician and businessman close to ex-leader Mahathir Mohamad.
Mahathir, 98, is Anwar’s former mentor who became a political nemesis, with the pair known to share a rancorous relationship despite the senior man being deep into his twilight years.
Malaysia denials abound as rumours of fresh political coup do the rounds
On Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said the government received intelligence reports confirming the meeting in Dubai, including flight details of people said to have attended the meeting.
At least two unnamed MPs from Anwar’s ruling coalition joined the meeting, a senior government official said, accusing the opposition of discussing plans to bribe pliable backbenchers and orchestrate mass defections to topple the government.
On Wednesday, Anwar told reporters he had read reports about the “Dubai Move” yet swiftly squashed its impact, saying it “will not have any effect” on his government, which instead is focused on the country’s development and public welfare.
Yet in Malaysia’s treacherous politics, which has seen five prime ministers in as many years, talk of a plot has set off new rounds of speculation, recrimination and further scheming.
“Anwar is insecure because his administration fails to fulfil all the promises they made before,” Wan Saiful Wan Jan, an MP with the opposition Bersatu party, told This Week in Asia.
Wan Saiful said Anwar’s administration was riddled with “incompetence”, citing the most recent example of Tuesday’s botched launch of a national database which triggered concerns of potential identity theft.
“With the glaring incompetence in the background, Anwar needs to divert public attention and he is using his Dubai fantasy as a diversion tactic,” Wan Saiful said.
Anwar has defended his record in government so far, saying the country has done well to attract billions of dollars in fresh foreign investments while maintaining the economy’s recovery momentum after the lean pandemic years.
Seeking support in the Malay heartlands, Anwar’s administration has tacked to the conservative right, cracking down on overt displays of homosexuality and posts deemed offensive on social media.
He has also been the most outspoken global leader on Israel’s bombardment of Gaza, an issue which resonates with Muslim Malaysians who have a long backstory of support for the Palestinian cause.
Political analysts say his positioning is largely motivated by a need for popularity among the Malays, a powerful political bloc who voted in droves for an ethno-nationalist coalition in a deeply-split national election in 2022.
But Anwar’s efforts so far appear to have fallen flat. His government gained narrow victories in state polls in August, which saw a sharp dip in support from Malay voters.
The Perikatan Nasional opposition front claimed it as the clearest sign yet that Anwar does not represent the will of the Malays – who are predominantly Muslim and form nearly 60 per cent of the country’s 33 million population. That means his government is bound to fall sooner than later, the opposition says.
“Many Malays regard the government as illegitimate and too dominated by DAP and East Malaysia,” said political analyst James Chin, referring to the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party and the ruling coalitions of Sabah and Sarawak states which are key members of Anwar’s unity government.
“[The Malays] do not like it,” said Chin, who heads the Asia Institute at the University of Tasmania.
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A matter of time?
A political coup is not a far-fetched possibility in Malaysia.
The country went into a tailspin just as the Covid-19 pandemic took hold in 2020, when several senior government leaders orchestrated a hostile takeover that brought down then-prime minister Mahathir’s administration. He fell just 22 months after a watershed election which brought the country’s first-ever change of government.
What followed was a period of political instability. Bersatu President Muhyiddin Yassin, who succeeded Mahathir, stepped down 17 months into the job after a rare rebuke by the king. He was replaced by Umno leader Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who bowed to pressure from his party to call for early national polls after just over a year in power.
Despite denying links to the purported Dubai Move, the opposition is wedded to the belief that deep-seated discontent among the Malays could trigger a government change well before the country is due to hold elections in 2028.
Anwar’s overall popularity fell to 50 per cent in October, a steep decline from 68 per cent when he first took office in November 2022, according to a report by independent pollster Merdeka Center.
Approval ratings for his administration fared even worse, with just 41 per cent of the survey respondents saying they were satisfied with the government’s performance. The figure plummeted to 27 per cent among the Malays.
Mohammad Sanusi Md Nor, the controversial chief minister of the opposition-held Kedah state, on Wednesday said efforts to topple Anwar’s administration was a constant topic of discussion at their meetings.
“It won’t be five years before they topple. It may happen this year, even this month,” he said at a news conference broadcast on his Facebook page.
Sanusi, who will face a sedition trial starting mid-January over a speech allegedly insulting royalty, said it was not unconstitutional to trigger a midterm change of government.
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Chasing shadows
Analysts say the government’s poor ratings among Malays stems from a failure to convince them that their rights – which include preferential treatment for everything from university places to discounts on house purchases – will continue to be protected by his multiracial administration.
A political putsch, however, comes down to maths.
Earlier this week, Sarawak’s ruling GPS coalition reiterated its support for Anwar. That meant any move to depose Anwar would fall short of a simple parliamentary majority, said political analyst Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri.
“Once GPS said no, [the Dubai Move] was no longer credible,” said Syaza, who heads the political science department at the International Islamic University of Malaysia.
Anwar’s allies also argued that fears of a coup were overblown.
“All this talk about coups is unnecessary and we’re just playing into the opposition’s hands,” said one source, who asked not to be named as they were not authorised to make media statements.
