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Exiled former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2019. Photo: AFP

Thailand’s Thaksin Shinawatra poised to return as Pheu Thai seals pact with ex-political foes

  • A possible ‘super-deal’ with former political foes may allow Thaksin to be held in special detention and swiftly seek a royal pardon from the Thai king
  • Thaksin’s return comes as members of his Pheu Thai party pledge to resign over its pact with conservative rivals
Thailand
Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire ex-premier who sits at the heart of Thailand’s decades-long political rupture, is poised to return to the kingdom on Tuesday after 15 years in self-exile, just hours before parliament is due to vote for his party’s candidate for prime minister.

“Tomorrow at 9am, allow me back to live in my homeland and [breathe] the same [air] as my Thai brothers and sisters,” the 74-year-old said in a tweet on Monday.

Authorities say Thaksin will be met by police after he lands at Bangkok’s Don Mueang airport, taken to court to hear charges against him and then to Bangkok Remand Prison where he will be held over three convictions in absentia which carry 10 years in prison.

Exiled ex-PM Thaksin’s return to Thailand to coincide with new PM vote: daughter

However, weeks of speculation over a “super-deal” with erstwhile political foes suggest he may be held in special detention in a medical facility for older inmates and swiftly seek a royal pardon from King Maha Vajiralongkorn.

Thaksin, a former policeman turned telecoms tycoon who throughout his exile contended his convictions are a political hatchet job, insists he is ready to face justice and no longer has any political ambitions.

“I don’t want to offend people. I want everyone to love each other. I want the country to be peaceful,” he told BBC Thai on Saturday. “I’m old, I miss my grandchildren, I want to be with my family.”

His sudden return – after years of failed attempts – comes with Thailand enmeshed in a new political crisis.

An election in May saw the Shinawatra political vehicle Pheu Thai fall behind the Move Forward Party as the public turned to alternatives instead of old political brands, after years of ulcerous government by the so-called “Uncles” – army generals Prayuth Chan-ocha and Prawit Wongsuwon.
But Move Forward has been blocked by the unelected Senate from forming a government – meaning the winners of the Thai election appear set for the opposition.
Srettha Thavisin, a one-time real estate tycoon, with Paetongtarn Shinawatra in Bangkok in April 2023. Photo: Reuters

Instead, on Tuesday the 750 bicameral parliament is due to vote for Pheu Thai’s Srettha Thavisin, a one-time real estate tycoon, to decide if he can be prime minister.

If he gets a simple majority, he will lead a coalition of 11 parties dominated by Pheu Thai, but including two parties linked to the same generals who have spent decades trying to eviscerate the Shinawatras’ political power.

That has led to accusations of betrayal of the pro-democracy cause by many within the party and its “Red Shirt” grass-roots support base, scores of whom have died in political violence defending Shinawatra parties.

On Monday, Red Shirt founder and key Pheu Thai stalwart, Nattawut Saikua, said he had resigned.

“It’s time for me to tell the public that I have terminated my role as director of Pheu Thai family effective immediately,” he told a TV host.

“The decision … is one that will leave me a scar because this is my home. I’ve fought for this family. And everyone here is my family. But when the time comes, you have to make a decision.”

Paetongtarn Shinawatra greets supporters attending her birthday party at the Pheu Thai party’s headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Monday. Photo: EPA-EFE

As other leading party members pledged to resign, Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra said the party’s pact with conservative rivals was a necessary evil after Pheu Thai’s failure to win a landslide in the May polls.

“We know the Pheu Thai party has a price to pay for making this decision – that is the criticism of the people,” Paetongtarn, a 37-year-old political neophyte who is a backup candidate for prime minister, said on Sunday.

But “we must adjust for the benefit of the country. We acknowledge and apologise for causing disappointment and hurt”.

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Self-exiled former Thai leader Thaksin lauds election winner Move Forward Party’s digital savvy

Self-exiled former Thai leader Thaksin lauds election winner Move Forward Party’s digital savvy

Family first, family only

It is a stunning about-turn for a Shinawatra party.

Thaksin surged to power in the 2001 election and secured another landslide in 2005 on a reputation for decisive economic management, with policies recognising the new economic and social aspirations of the neglected poor majority of Thailand.

It made him the only civilian Thai leader to ever serve a full term and win another election.

Yet his star billing and pull among pro-democrats riled the royalist establishment. He was ousted in a 2006 coup and driven into exile two years later as convictions rained down.

A Pheu Thai supporter holds a placard with photographs of former Thai prime ministers Thaksin Shinawatra and Yingluck Shinawatra, during an election campaign rally in Bangkok in April. Photo: AFP

Thaksin continued to loom over the political stage from overseas bases in London and Dubai, with his sister Yingluck winning a 2011 election under the Shinawatras’ new pro-democracy banner – the Pheu Thai party, again drawing on the loyalty of the rural poor.

Her administration was also eventually toppled in a coup in 2014, as military generals Prayuth and Prawit took over power, rewriting the constitution to book the army into power for the long run and on their way to reinventing as a civilian government.

May’s election saw the public deliver a withering verdict of their time in office.

Move Forward emerged as the biggest party, with a radical change agenda to prune the military and monopolies as well as reform the hardline “112” royal defamation law, which carries up to 15 years in jail for insulting the monarchy.

Its remedies for Thailand’s political ills have shaken the establishment like never before, experts say.

Pita Limjaroenrat of Move Forward Party. Photo: AFP

The Thai senate of 250 members, hand-picked by Prayuth, voted down Move Forward’s pick for prime minister Pita Limjaroenrat.

Pheu Thai dropped Move Forward in early August as it is blocked from forming a government and rumours of Thaksin’s return amped up.

On Monday, Pheu Thai said a government with its new coalition partners would boost productivity and incomes, in part by handing out US$284 in digital cash to everyone over 16. It also vowed to rewrite the contentious constitution, but without touching any elements linked to the monarchy, including the royal defamation law.

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