The highly anticipated, historic meeting between Trump and Kim raised hopes of a breakthrough. Initially it went well. The sabre-rattling was replaced by chummy smiles and shared jokes. Instead of hurling insults such as “dotard” and “rocket man”, Trump flattered Kim by calling the North Korean leader “talented” and “a worthy negotiator”.

For the first time, there appeared a chance of long-term peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.

The two leaders did not even stay for the full meeting, skipped the final lunch and disappeared before the time came to sign a shared statement.

Ri said US policies prove Washington remained a long-term threat to North Korea and its people. Describing mutual diplomacy as having “faded away into a dark nightmare”, Ri even vowed to increase his country’s nuclear weapons capabilities.

Pyongyang’s comments came after the US State Department said it was disappointed by North Korea’s decision on Tuesday to suspend communication with South Korea in retaliation for Seoul’s failure to stop activists floating anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the inter-Korean border.

Associate research fellow Shawn Ho from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University said it was uncertain if there is a chance for the US and North Korea to improve their relationship from now till the end of the year.

“President Trump is focused on his re-election campaign, dealing with Covid-19, and other domestic issues, but unless Pyongyang conducts another nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile [ICBM] test, we are unlikely to go back to the ‘fire and fury’ days of 2017,” Ho said.

However, Ho said the two sides could have worked harder to seize the moment and convert the thaw in relations into real change.

“The positive momentum and goodwill generated from that historic first summit has been lost and I am not sure if there will ever be as good an opportunity or window to push ahead with the agreement,” he said.

North Korea issues veiled threat to US elections for interfering in peninsula affairs

Donald Kirk, a veteran correspondent and author of books about Korea, the Vietnam war and the Philippines, said that “in a real sense we are back to square one” as Pyongyang has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons or ICBMs.

“Looking over the past two years, if the past is any precedent, I would expect more of the same, more ups and downs, crises and lulls,” Kirk said. “But even that view may be overly optimistic. Basically, the most optimistic scenario would be the continuation of the uneasy peace.”

“Washington has not loosened any of its sanctions against North Korea at all … and even more directly intervened in the improvement of relations between the two Koreas [by] selling advanced weapons to Seoul,” Li said.

Li noted that regardless of the one-on-one relationship between Trump and Kim, the bureaucracy in Washington had expanded its sanctions against Pyongyang. Last month, the US Department of Justice prosecuted 28 North Koreans for money laundering and bank fraud, which Li described as the largest criminal law enforcement action taken by the US against North Korea.

“Even if Trump and Kim meet and send letters to each other, they cannot change the attitude of mutual distrust or even hostility between the two countries’ bureaucratic systems,” Li said. “Therefore, as soon as the negotiations between the two parties fell into working-level dialogues, they collapsed almost immediately.

“North Korea is currently undertaking what is known as the ‘frontal breakthrough strategy’ by giving up on the illusion of immediately restarting dialogue with the US, while focusing on its own domestic economy and national defence construction,” Li said.

Kim-Trump friendship is pointless, North Korea says two years after summit in Singapore

The apparent rapport between Trump and Kim may be the only factor that keeps relations between the US and North Korea from again spiralling out of control.

The bromance of Singapore may not have survived intact but Trump still referred to Kim as a “friend” even after Pyongyang launched a missile last year. In March, Trump sent a letter to Kim offering to help in North Korea’s battle against the coronavirus.

Kim, for his part, was said to have written yet another “beautiful letter” to Trump last August, and has not personally said anything insulting that could further sour ties.

This may be the only saving grace. As Ho put it: “Two years after the summit, the good that has come out of it, even until today, is that Trump and Kim remain on good personal terms.”