Asean’s ‘summit season’ was a smooth ride despite year of turbulence
- There were some achievements at this year’s Asean summit, a key event taking place in Cambodia just before G20 and Apec meetings
- Notably, US, India, have become strategic Asean partners, plus agreement in principle to admit East Timor as 11th Asean member
With global leaders jetting off to Bali for a G20 summit and Bangkok for an Apec meeting, Cambodia can heave a sigh of relief after hosting one of the season’s other main get-togethers, Asean, without much drama. Concerns over the global economy, threats of recession and food and energy security took centre stage against the gridlock of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, intensifying US-China rivalry and the problem of Myanmar. Yet, Asean’s 10 members were able to make some difficult decisions on long-standing issues.
Here are six takeaways from Phnom Penh:
Myanmar crisis: deadlock?
Myanmar proved to be one of the most closely watched issues of this year’s summit. A statement released on the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) did not provide any new measures except for an implementation plan with practical and measurable indicators. Asean leaders called for the 5PC to be “implemented in its entirety”. There was no decision to engage the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) as well as other stakeholders. But manoeuvring space was given to the UN’s Special Envoy to employ a “flexible and informal approach” which could mean that informal engagement with the NUG is possible.
Asean ‘disappointed’ with Myanmar peace plan, Jokowi wants broader junta ban
Ukraine’s symbolic accession to treaty
The Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, signed the Instrument of Accession to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast (TAC) – an Asean instrument embodying the universal principle of peaceful cooperation, including mutual respect for the sovereignty of all nations. Within Asean, responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine vary considerably. Ukraine’s TAC accession, while symbolic, signifies Asean’s in-principle support of Kyiv and its respect for territorial integrity.
Ukraine’s accession means that it will become a High Contracting Party together with Russia, which has been a Party to the TAC since 2004. Although the geographical scope of the TAC is limited to Southeast Asia, there are provisions within the treaty that offer mediation, inquiry or conciliation among High Contracting Parties. However, it is unlikely that Russia will utilise this instrument to resolve its conflict with Ukraine, even if Ukraine were to pursue the TAC as an option to resolve the conflict.
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Soaring inflation, Ukraine and Myanmar top Asia summit agendas
Provisionally admits new member
Only time will tell if East Timor will serve as a net positive contributor to Asean or become another liability. East Timor President Jose Ramos-Horta took a swipe at Asean by saying that getting into it is harder than getting into “heaven”. This might be true; East Timor will have to work for its salvation.
Strategic partnerships for US and India
The US and India have become Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships of Asean, making them the third and fourth dialogue partners to be accorded this status, after China and Australia. Such a partnership signifies a high level of maturity in the relationship as reflected in the breadth and depth of cooperation and political commitment. It is expected that the US’ and India’s new status will help to facilitate their strategic alignment towards the body, including the two nations’ support for the implementation of the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) through new or enhanced areas of cooperation.
Washington and New Delhi’s overall engagement in the region have improved since the pandemic halted physical meetings of Asean summits. For US President Joseph Biden, this month’s summit marked his second Asean meeting following the Special Summit in Washington in May. Recently, Washington appointed a new US Ambassador to Asean.
Although the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was not in Phnom Penh himself, there are expectations that New Delhi will demonstrate strategic leadership in the Indo-Pacific, particularly to balance China’s territorial aggression in the South China Sea, and in economic cooperation, especially after India’s withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in 2020. It is now time for India to match its rhetoric with action.
Is US running out of patience with India’s ‘own interest’ mantra over Russia?
Cambodia shows its mettle
Cambodia inherited chairmanship of Asean when the latter was beset with more problems than the previous year. With the Myanmar political and humanitarian crisis already rocking Asean’s boat, the grouping had to deal with a slew of other challenges too: the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting issues of food and energy security as global supply chains were disrupted, increased cross-strait tension triggered by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s August visit to Taiwan, and moves by the US and its allies to decouple from the Chinese economy.
Here, Cambodia showed its mettle by being adept in managing great power rivalry. It engaged in and co-chaired two summits with the US despite poor bilateral relations and took the initiative to coax Myanmar back to the Asean family table. The unusually timely release of statements, including the Asean leaders’ decision on Myanmar, reflects Cambodia’s competence in managing tough negotiations. Critics who had expected to see a repeat of the 2012 chairmanship fiasco were sorely disappointed.
Can we expect Indonesia to step up?
Cambodia is passing the torch to Indonesia whose Chairmanship theme is a single tagline “Asean Matters: Epicentrum of Growth”. Jakarta’s previous leadership of Asean was transformational. In 2003, Jakarta pulled together Bali Concord III, transforming Asean into a structured regional organisation with three pillars of political-security, economic, and sociocultural cooperation. In 2011 it conducted “shuttle diplomacy” to mediate the land ownership dispute between Cambodia and Thailand over the Preah Vihear Temple.
Indeed, the expectations of Indonesia’s leadership – Asean’s biggest country – are exceptionally high at this critical juncture. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi acknowledged in an interview intensified major power rivalry and Asean citizens’ demands for more tangible impacts. She said Asean needs to initiate significant reforms to stay relevant.
President Joko Widodo’s visit to Russia and Ukraine to try to broker peace and his administration’s G20 leadership have signalled a healthy appetite to take Asean to the next level. However, Indonesia has a full domestic agenda, and it remains unclear if Indonesia will step up to the plate when many before have failed. The Asean Chairmanship will probably be Jokowi’s last attempt to showcase good governance and foreign policy leadership before the country heads into general elections in 2024. All eyes will be on Jakarta come 2023.
