Taiwan’s 2020 election candidates? It’s the US vs China
- Never has the question of whether to align with Washington or Beijing been more important for voters in the island’s presidential race
- The polls are set to become a proxy battleground for the two competing powers as well as a stress test for a delicate triangle of ties
US-Taiwan ties under Tsai Ing-wen are at their best in decades, but that may not be enough to prevent diplomatic isolation
Meanwhile, Trump has substantively upgraded relations with Taiwan, seeing the strategic partnership between the two democracies as helpful to core US interests in terms of values, economy and security, as well as Chinese containment.
President Tsai Ing-wen’s high-profile US visits keep Taiwan in spotlight and send message to Beijing
The demonstrations were originally triggered by a now-suspended bill that would have allowed extradition of criminal suspects to mainland China. But they have evolved into a wider movement calling for democratic reform, universal suffrage and a halt to what many residents see as sliding freedoms in the semi-autonomous territory.
The implementation of Hong Kong’s “one country, two systems” governing formula has been carefully watched by Taiwan as an indicator of how the island might fare in a similar situation. A survey in January found about 80 per cent of Taiwan’s residents opposed unification. Recent polls have suggested Tsai has become more popular due to her rejection of Xi’s call for unification and her support for the Hong Kong protests.
Tsai Ing-wen says ‘friends from Hong Kong’ will be considered for asylum on humanitarian grounds
Tsai and the DPP suffered a crushing defeat in last year’s local elections largely due to a flagging economy and unpopular domestic policies. Despite successes in her efforts to diversify the economy away from China, Tsai faces dire challenges.
Han won a resounding victory in last year’s mayoral elections largely on an economic improvement platform. In March, during a visit to four mainland cities, he met several Chinese officials, including Liu Jieyi, the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, a cabinet-level body that sets Beijing’s Taiwan policy. His close China links are both his greatest strength and vulnerability, as they could help boost the local economy but may hurt relations with the US. His pro-Beijing stance may raise suspicion among voters about his determination to safeguard self-rule and Taiwan’s democratic system.
KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu faces uphill battle in Taiwan presidential race
More importantly, the upcoming elections will for the first time become a proxy battleground for the US and China, as the choice between the two powers will dominate debate. Washington and Beijing have long shared one thing in common on their policy towards Taipei, which is that they both see maintaining stability across the Taiwan Strait as the priority. With this in mind, they have traditionally both shared their preference on election candidates early on in the campaigns.
Against precedent, the US allowed her to attend public meetings with the media and meet United Nations representatives from Taiwanese allies. This was no doubt aimed at boosting Tsai’s chances of winning a second four-year term, as Washington sees the Cornell University-educated politician as the defender of Taiwan’s young and hard-earned democracy. Trump may see a DPP-led Taiwan as a crucial ally in America’s “Indo-Pacific” strategy.
Will Taiwan choose China or choose the world? Its next presidential election will determine its future
Meanwhile, Beijing sees Han, the child of a mainland migrant, as its main hope of improving cross-strait ties amid rising independence sentiment on the island.
The 2020 elections will be a stress test of the complicated triangle of ties that has managed to keep the peace since China’s civil war ended 70 years ago. ■
Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on the topic since the early 1990s