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Prices weakened in March, extending sequential erosion since May 2023. China’s efforts to stem declines in home prices have not produced the desired results, prompting Goldman Sachs to predict a more aggressive policy response.
China needs more than 15 trillion yuan (US$2.1 trillion) to overturn a three-year housing crisis, Goldman says. Rescue efforts have not been good enough and the market downturn could still get worse.
China is encouraging more property owners to swap their old homes for new ones as a way to rejuvenate the market. Zhengzhou, home to the largest iPhone factory, is among at least 30 other mainland cities to introduce the trade-in scheme.
Simon Siu, chairman of Estate Agents Authority, says decision to scrap extra stamp duties last month was ‘shot in the arm’ for ailing property market.
New home prices fell again in February, despite a slew of measures to prop up the market. While more easing measures can be expected, an ‘L-shaped’ recovery is likely in the coming years given weak fundamentals, Goldman says.
The local government in Hangzhou has taken another drastic move to ease home-purchase restrictions, after an effort last year failed to sustain a rebound in the housing market.
China’s housing market is still plagued by excess supply of used homes as desperate owners look to cash out amid an economic gloom. Prices may need to drop further, with buyers waiting for bigger discounts, analysts say.
Shanghai’s housing market looks set to continue its downward slide due to a lack of buying interest, as would-be buyers wary of a gloomy economic outlook continue to feel uneasy about the current high property prices.
A plunge in contracted sales last month underscores why some creditors are running out of patience to recover their debts.
Amid a sluggish second-hand home market where supply outweighs demand and prices are slumping to fresh lows, many homeowners in China are taking to social media to sell their property in the hopes of finding a buyer more quickly and securing a better deal.
Sentiment has waned and some potential homebuyers would rather extend their leases instead of buying a home, China Index Academy analyst says.
Despite a slew of measures rolled out by Chinese regulators recently to boost demand for property, developers are still struggling with weak sales and reported declines of more than 40 per cent in January.
China’s measures to boost the nation’s troubled housing market are trickling down to the provincial and city levels, with more cities relaxing curbs to buy property.
These estimates imply that property sales in China could fall 10 to 15 per cent this year, versus an initial forecast of about 5 per cent, CGS-CIMB’s Raymond Cheng says.
Beijing and Shanghai issued their latest round of support measures last December to shore up confidence. The measures seem to have yielded solid results. But analysts say the trend is far from sustainable.
Prices of new homes in 70 cities fell 0.4 per cent month on month in December after a 0.3 per cent drop in November, according to a Post analysis of official data.
A downward trend in home sales accelerated in December as discounts and easing measures failed to spark demand.
A growing number of ordinary homebuyers looking to occupy their house rather than invest are looking at properties that have been repossessed by banks as a supply surge brings prices even lower.
Three out of China’s four tier-1 cities saw new-home prices fall in November, with only Shanghai showing an increase, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, as the market waits for stimulus measures to take hold.
Homebuyers in Shenzhen have shown interest in upgrading their homes after the local government eased some policy measures, but expectations of lower incomes amid slower economic growth mean that people are still hesitant about big-ticket purchases.
For US$170 per month, some agents are offering a unit with a private bathroom and allow pets.
Authorities in Shenzhen, China’s technology hub, are reducing the down payment required from people buying a second home, joining a fray of big cities paring back restrictions in a bid to revive the flagging property market.
Developers are offering sweeteners such as delayed down payments, discounts and free parking spaces to home buyers in Shanghai in an attempt to spur demand in the face of slumping sales.
The credit ratings agency downgraded Longfor from ‘Baa3’ to ‘Ba2’ as it expects the developer’s condition to deteriorate across the board. A ratings upgrade is unlikely.
Home prices in major Chinese cities fell for the fourth straight month in October, recording the steepest drop in nearly nine years amid slumping demand.
The positive impact of mainland China’s property stimulus measures is likely to be short-lived, with home sales remaining sluggish for at least the next six months, according to the credit ratings agency.
Weak house sales numbers follow action by central government last month to reduce down payments for millions of homebuyers across China.
Major Chinese commercial banks have cut rates for outstanding home loans as part of a series of state-directed stimulus measures aimed at easing homebuyers’ debt burdens and reviving the country’s troubled property sector. But the cut might not provide a sufficient boost to demand, analysts said.