Tokyo 2020: what are the chances of the Olympics happening next year? Pretty much zero
- How can the Games possibly go ahead in 14 months with the worst still yet ahead for many countries? That hope is fanciful at best
- With Japan extending its state of emergency until the end of May, how can it guarantee everyone’s safety? The whole thing is a minefield
In the 2007 financial crisis the banks were “too big to fail”; 13 years on and amid a very different global crisis the Olympics are too big to succeed.
There were a record 207 nations at the last Games in Rio four years ago and more than 200 at each Games since that barrier was broken at Athens in 2004. Tokyo was expecting 206 and it is a literal A-Z of countries from Afghanistan (first Games in 1936) to Zimbabwe, who have been at every Games since 1980.
Nothing else compares to it on a global scale.
Television figures prove it – of the top 10 most watched events in history, six are for the Olympics, with London and Rio the top two at an estimated 3.6 billion viewers. Only the last Fifa World Cup in Russia in 2018 breaks the Olympics in the top seven.
That is a large part of the problem. The number of people needed outside the athletes and officials is immense.
This is all very different to the situation we are in now with some domestic sporting events resuming. They are behind closed doors, there are protocols in place for training, rules about contact have been enforced. Some leagues are even discussing neutral venues and quarantining all the athletes together.
Next year’s Olympics will be cancelled if pandemic not over, says Games chief
That is for domestic competitions. Continental competitions such as the Uefa Champions League are a bigger headache with international travel and increased Covid-19 risk. Little wonder that there is no word on how they will return.
Next year’s Copa America and Euro 2020 (2021?) offer yet more cause for concern as they involve whole nations, but at least they are confined to a continent. The Olympics is global. The world will descend on Tokyo.
The city has 9.2 million inhabitants and they would expect to add half a million or more based on overseas tourists who visited Rio for the Games. Not to mention the visitors from around Japan and the people to ferry them all around, feed them and all of the volunteer roles. Then there is police and security on top of that – Rio deployed an 85,000-strong force four years ago.
How can the Games possibly go ahead in 14 months? That hope is fanciful at best.
Let’s take what we know. Of the 206 countries Japan was expecting to host, how many have the pandemic under control and how many are yet to see its peak?
Japan has already extended its state of emergency until the end of May and some of their politicians are stating the Games may not go ahead as replanned.
Experts are already warning against the reliance on a vaccine – one that the WHO say we might not see until the end of 2021 – and then everyone going would also need a health passport.
Assuming we get to Japan, what would the plan be to test for the coronavirus on a daily basis? Who would do the testing even if there were that number available? What about spectators?
There are problems on an even bigger scale both before and after.
The worst case scenario of that number of people meeting in one place and then returning home does not bear thinking about. It’s every pandemic film script ever written.
Beforehand is less sobering but no less cause for concern.
Consider the number of tests needed for the athletes. Those who are already qualified for Tokyo 2020 will need tested throughout their training, whenever they can resume. Those who need to qualify will have to be tested through that process, where the risk and the cost increases.
Everyone planning on going to the Games will have to be cleared before they go and then checked throughout.
Do they isolate for 14 days before they go and again once they arrive in Tokyo?
This is assuming that travel restrictions are eased to the point where everyone is free to fly across the world.
What of countries where there are still cases next July or June or May? Are they banned from the Olympics on safety grounds? It would be the sensible decision but totally against the Olympic spirit.
Postponed Tokyo Olympics rescheduled for July 23 in 2021
Potentially, countries will pull out if extensive safety protocols are not in place and the health of their athletes and officials cannot be guaranteed.
That was happening in the run-up to Tokyo 2020 pulling the plug on this summer. The athletes spoke and the correct decision was made. Another decision will need to be made in due course.
Even if it is deemed possible to hold the Games, individuals will have to decide if they want to go. The numbers who decide it is not worth the risk could dwarf those who pulled out of Rio 2016 because of the Zika virus.
Covid-19 has brought home to everyone, with the possible exception of some high-ranking politicians, the severity of the situation. Lives have been lost and the way we live has changed with no idea how they will be when we come out of it, and what changes are going to become permanent.
Dutch football has said there will be no spectators until there is a vaccine. Would their footballers skip the Games but other athletes go? It’s a minefield.
There will be an asterisk by these Games and not because Tokyo 2020 takes place in 2021 or 2022 or whenever they can go ahead.
Tokyo 2020 – a timeline of the ‘cursed’ Olympics
Back in the Cold War boycotts saw just 80 nations compete in Moscow in 1980, there were only 140 in Los Angeles four years later. Tokyo 2020 has the potential to see even fewer if they try to force it.
Never mind Citius, Altius, Fortius. What’s Latin for safer?
Help us understand what you are interested in so that we can improve SCMP and provide a better experience for you. We would like to invite you to take this five-minute survey on how you engage with SCMP and the news.
