As the fallout reverberated from Beijing to Florida to Buenos Aires, decision-makers in US and Argentine football faced a prospect that previously confronted US basketball and women’s tennis: losing access to China’s market of 1.4 billion people.

Relative values: Messi and China

At stake are broadcast deals, endorsements, merchandise sales and more. China’s sports market is expected to grow 5.2 per cent annually in the next three to five years, reaching 5 trillion yuan (US$695 billion) by 2035, PwC China partner Harrison Liu told last weekend’s Greater Bay Area International Sports Business Summit in Macau.

Far East tours tap into the spending power of the region’s fans, who emptied shops in Hong Kong of Inter’s distinctive pink garments and generated gate receipts of HK$110 million (US$14.1 million) via match tickets costing up to HK$4,880. Miami were paid almost US$7 million by organiser Tatler Asia, sources told the Post.

Messi jerseys were selling at between HK$899 and HK$1,299. The player’s move to Miami last year reportedly gave him a share of kit sales, via a long-term deal with Adidas, supplier to all teams in the domestic US competition Major League Soccer (MLS).

He was also believed to have been granted a cut of new subscriptions to the league’s Apple TV streaming service, which pays MLS US$2.5 billion over 10 years and is available in more than 100 countries and regions – including Hong Kong, at HKD$118 per month or HKD$788 per season. The Apple deal does not cover mainland China.

Analytics company Antenna recorded that 110,000 people bought MLS Season Pass on the day of Messi’s debut, a 280 per cent increase on the season’s opening day, since which fewer than 10,000 per day had been signing up.

Messi’s published annual salary last year was US$20.45 million, by far MLS’ highest. Most of his teammates earn in the tens or hundreds of thousands. US reports put Messi’s final income at more than US$50 million when a bonus and equity in the club were included – roughly the same as the country’s leading basketball players.

In China, partnerships with brands such as Huawei, Chery, Tencent, Mengniu, Chishui River Wine and J&T Express add to Messi’s wealth and attest to his influence. In 2021, he sent three autographed shirts to Chinese pharmaceutical giant Sinovac and in return secured 50,000 vaccines for South American footballers.

Cancelled by China

When a hoped for shot in the arm for Hong Kong backfired, a love affair with the superstar soured. Miami arrived to recruit fans, only to mobilise an army of critics.

Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) deleted footage of the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner from the opening credits of its programme Total Soccer, and its “best of 2023” video. State media weather forecasts removed Messi’s advertisement for a Guizhou liquor.

Marcus Chu Pok, an assistant professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong whose research interests focus on the sport-politics nexus in China, explained the Chinese perspective.

“It was a local event, not on a national level or a serious game, but it reminded people Hong Kong is part of China – that’s an element here,” Chu said.

“China is showing its power to developing countries such as Argentina, and to players there, that if you want to play here, you have to respect China.

“If US football wants the Chinese market, it needs to use Messi and [Miami co-owner] David Beckham. The message to Messi was, if you want to earn Chinese money, you need to behave China’s way.”

Not all Weibo users condemned Messi. “It feels like revenge but as a big country, we don’t need to go to war with a player,” a comment read. “There are far too many players with political leanings, CCTV may not be able to operate if they stick to this.”

“Messi is going to retire soon,” a comment from Shaanxi read. “How much impact would there be?”

NBA’s long road back

He later deleted the tweet and apologised, while the NBA – no doubt concerned for its revenue in China, modestly estimated at US$500 million annually – said Morey had “deeply offended” some fans and “does not represent the Rockets or the NBA”.

It was too late. The Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) halted cooperation with the Rockets, before partners including Li-Ning and the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank abandoned the franchise.

By February 2020, the NBA’s commissioner Adam Silver put its losses at “hundreds of millions of dollars” and “probably less than US$400 million”. The Rockets – popular because they were Chinese star Yao Ming’s former team – stood to lose 400 million yuan (US$56 million) per year, Chinanews.com reported.

“I don’t think any team or body will give up on such a market easily,” a Chinese basketball industry source told the Post. “The NBA’s promotion and revenue in China is the largest outside the United States.”

By October 2021, when the NBA signed up short video platform Kuaishou as a partner, a public relations disaster showed signs of healing. It took 2½ years for Chinese state media to resume carrying NBA regular season games in March 2022.

Cameron Wilson, the Shanghai-based founding editor of Wild East Football, believes Messi and Miami can recover quicker.

“Morey’s tweet touched a core political red line for China,” he said. “Regardless of one’s views about Morey’s right to an opinion, one could understand why there was consternation. But this time, there are plenty of fans in China sensible enough to point out this was an overreaction.

“Anyone questioning why Messi played in Japan simply doesn’t understand sport, or was conflating the issue with Japan-China relations for their own gain.”

Mark Dreyer, author of Sporting Superpower, a book about China’s sporting ambitions, said the NBA incident highlighted the sensitivities of restoring goodwill.

“The NBA was getting it from both sides,” he said. “It was seen as pandering to China from overseas. Whereas the Chinese reaction was, ‘you’re not bowing down at all’. There is no middle ground. You have to take a side.”

WTA double fault?

Some criticised it for leaving, others for returning. The pause potentially cost the WTA hundreds of millions of dollars in broadcasting and sponsorship, although the Covid-19 pandemic, which had already halted Chinese tournaments, makes an exact figure elusive.

China had staged nine tournaments with total prize money of US$30.4 million in 2019, the WTA’s last full year of operations there.

‘Chasing money in China’

Last June, eight months before he stayed rooted to his seat on the sidelines in Hong Kong as disquiet grew louder, Argentina captain Messi had been note-perfect on a trip to China with his World Cup-winning team.

Beijing was gripped by Messi mania, rewarded with a goal by the man himself after only 81 seconds of a sold-out match at the Workers’ Stadium. Days later, Messi skipped a game in Indonesia, upsetting fans. The local football association ruled out refunds and said the match was between Argentina and Indonesia, not Messi and Indonesia.

The Argentine Football Association (AFA) continues to send its team on the road. Time is running out to capitalise on its prime commodity, the ageing Messi, but March’s matches in Hangzhou and Beijing have been scrubbed from the calendar.

“From a sporting and even economic perspective, that June game was massive,” Dreyer said. “I don’t think in 15 years in China I’ve seen anything like that. Now, with games being cancelled, it’s a remarkable fall from grace.”

In Buenos Aires, officials scrambled to find replacements, arranging matches in the US.

“I am sure the AFA were annoyed – it had nothing to do with them,” South American football expert Tim Vickery said. “It is absurd, it is ridiculous, it is many things that are wrong with modern football in one episode.

“But Argentina have just qualified for the Olympics, so the big story with Messi is whether he will play in that. The feeling is, ‘We have been the victims of an injustice, but what happens next?’ They have bigger things to think about.”

Criticism of the AFA, Vickery said, could stem from “Brazil playing meaningful games while we chase money in China”.

Who needs who?

Like the NBA and WTA before them, the MLS and AFA are weighing the costs and benefits of their options, including silence, even if Dreyer suggested football’s global landscape made it less reliant than basketball was on smoothing things over.

“NBA is far and away the biggest basketball league,” he said. “Whereas in football, you’ve got the big European leagues.”

Attention is turning to the US as it prepares to co-host the 2026 Fifa World Cup, and MLS aims to increase its global reach.

Although MLS struck a multi-year streaming deal in 2018 with Chinese companies K-Ball and PPTV, its 2024 matches were not contracted to be distributed in mainland China – ruling out an NBA-style blackout but leaving US football on the outside looking in.

The NBA’s 2019 sale of streaming rights in China earned it US$1.5 billion over five years from Tencent. However, during the Morey saga the Chinese tech giant lost the ability to monetise an audience estimated at 800 million.

Asked whether MLS was seeking a new Chinese streaming partner, its spokeswoman told the Post “we continue to explore ways to further our international distribution”.

During repeated inquiries, MLS, Miami and their fellow clubs were unwilling to discuss any impact on revenues from the Messi affair. A source close to MLS administrators said there was “a wish for it all to go away”.

Back in Hong Kong, a 50,000-seat stadium nears completion at the new Kai Tak Sports Park, with hopes of filling it resting partly on inviting megastars such as Messi. The Argentinian and his teammates were scheduled to visit the site on their last morning in the city, but abandoned the plan.

With Messi to turn 37 and his great rival Cristiano Ronaldo passing 40 before the park is scheduled to open in 2025, the clock is ticking on the possibility of seeing either of them play there.

“It depends what kind of event Hong Kong wants to host: more like this, with a famous name, or a normal sports event,” Chu, of Lingnan University, said. “People attended this for Messi and Beckham. It was not a genuine sporting contest, more of a show.

“If Hong Kong can attract normal sporting mega events, it doesn’t need to think too hard about Messi.”