The judge’s suggestion that he may jail the former president signalled that Trump’s already precarious legal standing could further spiral depending on his behaviour during the trial.

Merchan wrote that he is “keenly aware of, and protective of,” Trump’s First Amendment rights, “particularly given his candidacy for the office of president of the United States”.

“It is critically important that defendant’s legitimate free speech rights not be curtailed, that he be able to fully campaign for the office which he seeks and that he be able to respond and defend himself against political attacks,” Merchan wrote.

Still, he warned that the court would not tolerate “wilful violations of its lawful orders and that if necessary and appropriate under the circumstances, it will impose an incarceratory punishment”.

With that statement, the judge drew nearer the spectre of Trump becoming the first former president of the United States behind bars.

Trump is used to having constant access to his social media bullhorn to slam opponents and speak his mind. After he was banned from Twitter following the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, Trump launched his own platform, where his posts would not be blocked or restricted.

And he has long tried to distance himself from controversial messages he has amplified to his millions of followers by insisting they’re “only retweets”.

But he does have experience with gag orders, which were also imposed in his civil fraud trial. After he was found to have violated those orders, he paid more than US$15,000 in fines.

Tuesday’s ruling came at the start of the second week of testimony in the historic case, in which Manhattan prosecutors argue Trump and his associates took part in an illegal scheme to influence the 2016 presidential campaign by purchasing and then burying seamy stories.

03:15

Trump gained over US$100 million through fraud, New York says as civil trial starts

Trump gained over US$100 million through fraud, New York says as civil trial starts

The payouts went to a doorman with a torrid yarn; former Playboy model Karen McDougal, who had accusations of an affair; and to porn performer Stormy Daniels, who alleged a sexual encounter with Trump. He has pleaded not guilty and says the stories are all fake.

Trump was ordered to pay the gag-order fine by the close of business on Friday and must remove seven offending posts from his Truth Social account and two from his campaign website by 2.15pm on Tuesday.

The judge is also weighing other alleged gag-order violations by Trump and will hear arguments on Thursday. He also announced that he will halt the trial on May 17 to allow Trump to attend his son Barron’s high school graduation.

Of the 10 posts, the one Merchan ruled was not a violation came on April 10, a post referring to witnesses Michael Cohen and Daniels as “sleaze bags”. Merchan said Trump’s contention that he was responding to previous posts by Cohen “is sufficient to give” him pause on whether the post was a violation.

Among those he found to be violations, Merchan ruled that a Trump post quoting Fox News host Jesse Watters’ claim that liberal activists were lying to infiltrate the jury “constitutes a clear violation” of the gag order. Merchan noted that the words contained within the quotation marks in Trump’s April 17 post misstated what Watters actually said.

Merchan cautioned that the gag order “not be used as a sword instead of a shield by potential witnesses” and that if people who are protected by the order, like Cohen, continue to attack Trump, “it becomes apparent” they do not need the gag order’s protection.

Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer, has said he will refrain from commenting about Trump until after he testifies at the trial. On Tuesday, he said in a text message to Associated Press: “The imposed fine is irrelevant. Judge Merchan’s decision elucidates that this behaviour will not be tolerated and that no one is above the law”.

In other developments, testimony resumed Tuesday with Gary Farro, a banker who helped Cohen open accounts, including one that Cohen used to buy Daniels’ silence. She alleged a 2006 sexual encounter with Trump, which he denies. Jurors also heard from Keith Davidson, a lawyer who represented McDougal and Daniels in their negotiations with the National Enquirer and Cohen.

Trump is charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with the hush money payments.

The detailed evidence on business transactions and bank accounts is setting the stage for testimony from Cohen, who went to federal prison after pleading guilty in 2018 to campaign finance violations and other crimes.

Jurors have also heard from Trump’s long-time executive assistant, Rhona Graff, who recounted that she recalled once seeing Daniels at Trump’s office suite in Trump Tower and figured she was a potential contestant for one of Trump’s Apprentice-brand shows.

Last week, former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker laid out how he agreed to serve as the Trump campaign’s “eyes and ears” by helping to squelch unflattering rumours and claims about Trump and women. Pecker described how he paid US$180,000 to scoop up and sit on stories.

Trump’s lawyers have suggested that he was engaged in an effort to protect his name and his family – not to influence the outcome of the presidential election.

The trial – the first of Trump’s four criminal cases to come before a jury – is expected to last for another month or more. And with every moment Trump is in court, he is growing increasingly frustrated while the November election moves ever closer.

For his part, Trump has been campaigning in his off-hours, but he is required to be in court when it is in session, four days a week. Outside the courtroom on Tuesday, he again criticised the case.

“This is a case that should have never been brought,” he said.