Since then, Xi’s tree metaphor has been quoted often by Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing politicians and senior officials. Outgoing Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor cited it at least five times in the last five years.

Looking back at Xi’s Hong Kong visit, analysts noted that the president had struck a firm yet moderate tone in his speeches, warning residents not to cross the bottom line of undermining Chinese sovereignty, and calling for consensus over conflict to solve major problems.

Xi also warned: “Any attempt to endanger China’s sovereignty and security, challenge the power of the central government … or use Hong Kong to carry out infiltration and sabotage activities against the mainland is an act that crosses the red line, and is absolutely impermissible.”

The president also urged the Hong Kong administration to “improve its systems to uphold national sovereignty, security and development interests”, in a reference to the city’s failure to enact its own national security law.

Commenting on the city’s political conflicts and anti-mainland sentiments, the president also said: “Making everything political or deliberately creating differences and provoking confrontation will not resolve the problems.”

He added that the central government would keep an open mind about dialogue with the city’s politicians, including moderate ones from the opposition camp.

“We are willing to communicate with [anyone] no matter what political views or propositions they hold, as long as they love the country and Hong Kong, and sincerely support the ‘one country, two systems’ policy and the Basic Law.”

Now, five years later, as political watchers and the establishment await key messages from Xi when he arrives on Thursday for a visit to mark the city’s 25th anniversary of its return to Chinese sovereignty, they referred to his 2017 speeches to discern any deviations or renewed emphasis on core themes and new tasks.

Tough yet tempered approach

Observers said they believed that Xi’s tough yet tempered approach in 2017 was carefully calibrated to warn the radicals and win over the middle ground.

At that time, Hong Kong authorities and the pro-Beijing camp had been struggling to handle a rise in localist sentiments in the city, with activists either championing that the city should be allowed to determine its political fate, or advocating an outright separation from China.

Localist leaders, such as Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Baggio Leung Chung-hang, had won seats in the Legislative Council election in 2016 and triggered a political storm as they uttered derogatory phrases and displayed an anti-China banner as they took their oath in the Legco chamber.

Their antics prompted the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, the country’s top legislative body, to interpret Article 104 of the Basic Law, specifying that insincere oath-taking could be punishable by instant disqualification.

Looking back, Tam Yiu-chung, the city’s sole representative on the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, said Xi’s warning about the red lines was a key message in the 2017 speech that paved the way for Beijing’s enactment of the national security law in 2020.

By 2019, the forces that held sway towards self-determination at one extreme or greater democratisation at the other had joined forces in their opposition to the withdrawn extradition bill that would have sent fugitives to mainland China for trial. The anti-extradition bill protests morphed into a wider anti-government movement by that summer, prompting Beijing to take the tough route of the national security law.

Tam said: “We paid special attention to the president’s statement that national security is an unchallengeable bottom line. As it was challenged in recent years, the standing committee had no choice but to step in with a ‘combo of punches’,” he said.

That combo was the security law and electoral overhaul in 2021, which altered the political landscape to ensure only “patriots” ruled the city.

Still, former opposition lawmaker Ronny Tong Ka-wah, who was sworn in as a member of the Executive Council on July 1, 2017, said he was most impressed by Xi’s statement that Beijing was ready to talk with anyone who did not endanger national security. The central government had not yet taken a hard line towards the opposition camp despite the challenges by localists.

“Hong Kong’s opposition lawmakers voted down a political reform package in 2015, and there was the oath-taking saga in 2016. But Xi still said in 2017 that apart from national sovereignty, which is a red line, there are a range of topics that can be discussed,” he said. “That was most memorable for me.”

Geopolitics and national sovereignty

The analysts noted that Xi’s Hong Kong visit back then also came at a time when the US-China trade war had yet to break out, and Beijing’s relationship with Washington was still on an even keel.

Three months before the Hong Kong visit, Xi had gone to the United States to meet then US president Donald Trump in Florida in April. Trump also visited Beijing that November, half a year before he started the trade war with China in March 2018.

Since then, US-China relations have deteriorated to such an extent that both sides are assiduously cultivating their own spheres of influence, while the possibility of war over Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing considers a renegade province, is openly discussed.

The city, which used to enjoy certain privileges under the Hong Kong Policy Act, is now “monitored” by the US for its state of freedoms and both the incoming and outgoing chief executives have been sanctioned by the US for their role in the national security law.

But analysts doubted that Xi would, during his visit, talk about the geopolitical environment in a blunt manner to show this was of grave concern or that China was ruffled. Rather, he would couch key messages around the theme of strengthening national sovereignty and staying vigilant against outside, unnamed threats to stability.

Political analyst Derek Yuen Mi-chang, a watcher of US-China relations said that while Beijing’s ties with the Western bloc remained tense, it was unlikely Xi would say too much about geopolitics at a celebratory occasion such as the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule.

“I think national integration is a key theme of Xi’s visit as a whole,” Yuen said.

Song Sio-chong, a professor at Shenzhen University’s Centre for Basic Laws of Hong Kong and Macau, said: “Even though the Chinese and American defence ministers met recently at the Shangri-La security summit in Singapore earlier in June, the Group of Seven has been planning a US$600 billion project to counter Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative. The geopolitical tensions facing China only escalated.

“Since the 2019 riots, Hong Kong has also been on the forefront of tensions between China and the West. It is facing national security threats in areas such as finance, internet, culture and politics, so I believe that Xi will emphasise national security and present another comprehensive discourse on how the city can stay successful in the coming years.”

Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of the semi-official think tank, the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said he believed that while lauding the success of Beijing’s one country, two systems governing principle over Hong Kong is expected to be the key theme of Xi’s trip, the president’s other messages for the city could be much different from 2017.

“In the past five years, the three red lines laid down by Xi were crossed one by one,” Lau said, in a reference to the president’s warning against endangering national security, challenging Beijing’s power and using the city as a base of infiltration.

“I believe that this time Xi will emphasise the need to exercise Beijing’s comprehensive jurisdiction over Hong Kong while preserving the city’s high degree of autonomy,” he added.

The political scholar argued that even though Hong Kong’s authorities had outlawed the pro-independence Hong Kong National Party in 2018, it was Beijing’s enactment of the national security law in June 2020 that stabilised Hong Kong’s public order.

As Beijing also imposed a drastic overhaul last year to Hong Kong’s electoral system to ensure “patriots administering Hong Kong”, Lau said he believed that praising these two moves by the central government would be a key theme in Xi’s remarks.

Economic integration and tech innovation

For Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, who will be sworn in as the new Exco convenor, it was the president’s use of a colloquial Cantonese phrase in his 2017 speeches that stood out.

“He said ‘After leaving Suzhou, one will find it hard to get a boat ride’. He used this as a reminder for us not to miss the boat,” she said.

“I think President Xi has placed a lot of emphasis on technology … He will be visiting the Science Park to remind Hong Kong to make the most of its strengthening in technological innovation.”

The signalling would be important, she said, as Hong Kong was in the midst of trying to diversify its economy while facing competition from the mainland and abroad.

Last year, Shenzhen was a key engine of China’s growth, with its gross domestic product (GDP) of 3 trillion yuan (US$448 billion) contributing 2.6 per cent to the nation’s GDP. In comparison, Hong Kong’s GDP lagged behind at HK$2.86 trillion (US$427 billion).

But Ip said one should not be comparing the two cities’ GDPs as Shenzhen’s urban population, at 15 million, was double the size of Hong Kong’s.

“Hong Kong’s per capita GDP is still leading the rest of the country, but it has so far failed to restructure its economy, and still relies on the service industry,” she said. “Hong Kong and Shenzhen can complement each other in technological research and commercialisation, and join forces on this front.”

Ip said she believed that Xi’s visit would give Hong Kong assurances that the city was capable of working with its mainland neighbours in boosting technological innovation.

Agreeing, political scientist Yuen noted that Xi’s expected itinerary included a visit to the Science Park and arrival via the high-speed railway, with even speculative reports suggesting he could return to Beijing on a flight taking off from the brand new third runway.

“These stops suggest that the central government wants to show Hong Kong people that technology, transport and culture are the main areas that the city can focus on in the near future,” he said.

Analysts also said they believed that, in keeping with these themes, Xi would cite economic integration, national resilience, technological innovation, transport infrastructure, culture and national identity as priorities for incoming leader John Lee Ka-chiu’s administration.

Lau said: “The pandemic has obstructed Hong Kong’s efforts in integrating with the mainland.

“But I believe that as the epidemic situation improves, and under the new political order established by the electoral overhaul, Beijing would expect Hong Kong to further integrate with China’s development, and make the best use of Greater Bay Area platforms such as the Nansha and Qianhai economic zones in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, respectively.”

Asked if Xi was likely to touch on issues such as border reopening, Lau said he expected the president to focus on overall directions, such as the importance of fostering a greater sense of national pride among Hongkongers, especially in the younger generation, rather than narrow it down to resuming travel.

Song of Shenzhen University said he believed the president would not only highlight the need for further integration in youth and cultural policies, but also the importance of more cross-border collaboration in safeguarding national and local financial security.

Commercial sector lawmaker Jeffrey Lam Kin-fung, an Exco member, also said that business leaders in Hong Kong were hoping that Xi would give assurances about Hong Kong’s role in the nation and the bay area project.

“We hope that he will show support for the city’s future as a global financial hub,” he said.

“Hong Kong can offer a runway and springboard for mainland cities and start-ups under the bay area project … Shenzhen and Hong Kong are not rivals. They know there are things they cannot do, and they would reach out to Hong Kong for help. We should also do the same.”

Last year, as Beijing unveiled its 14th five-year plan, the central government pledged to support Hong Kong in reinforcing its status as an international financial, shipping, and trading centre.

It also pledged to encourage the city in developing new roles, such as becoming an international aviation and technological hub, as well as a centre for arts and cultural exchange between China and the rest of the world.

Lam said he hoped that during his trip, Xi would show support to Hong Kong’s efforts in boosting the technological and cultural sectors.

Contemplating the political future

Beyond these core themes, Exco member Ronny Tong said he hoped that Xi’s speech would also give greater clarity on Hong Kong’s political future and democratic reforms.

“I hope that he can talk about the city’s direction in the next 25 years, as the city reaches the halfway mark of one country, two systems,” he said, in a reference to Basic Law’s Article 5 which specified that Hong Kong’s capitalist system and way of life shall remain unchanged for 50 years until 2047.

“I also hope that the president’s speech can be forward-looking, and tell us how our political system will go forward from here.”

Pro-Beijing heavyweight Tam said he was also looking forward to any “new instruction or guidelines” from Xi on the implementation of one country, two systems.

But he said he considered it unlikely that Xi would expand on the issue of political reform, less than a month after his meeting with John Lee in Beijing when the latter received his appointment letter. Xi said then that the revamped electoral system had given Hong Kong a “democratic political system which fits one country, two systems” and “must be cherished and upheld in the long run”.

Critics such as Tik Chi-yuen, the city’s sole non-establishment legislator, however, had urged Lee’s administration to explain how Hong Kong could achieve a popular ballot for the city’s leadership, as specified under Article 45 of the Basic Law.

Regina Ip suggested that there was little reason to worry about the city’s political system or the issue of 2047, as long as both Beijing and Hong Kong authorities reassured the people that one country, two systems would be implemented for the long term.

“On the political front, I think the key message from Xi is that Hong Kong people must also accurately understand one country, two systems. In the past few years, the principle almost went off the right track and across the guardrails,” said the former security minister.

“I think Xi would also reassure Hong Kong people that all the guarantees under the Basic Law would remain.”