PLA may not be ready for major amphibious attack on Taiwan before 2030: ex-US Navy intelligence officer
- Deck carriers represent PLA’s ‘most significant innovation’ in civil-military asset use, retired US Navy intelligence officer J. Michael Dahm writes
- But range of amphibious landing and logistics skills key to any major Taiwan attack may only come in mid-2030s, Dahm says in China Maritime Report
The integration of deck cargo ships into People’s Liberation Army exercises last year was “the most significant innovation” in the PLA’s coordinated efforts and interactions with civilian maritime assets, J. Michael Dahm, now senior resident fellow at the US-based Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, said in the latest China Maritime Report.
Deck carriers – vessels that move cargo on open, flat decks – could help the PLA to address its shortcomings in transporting troops and equipment in large-scale operations. But more assessment is needed to know just how effective they would be, according to the report published on the US Naval War College website last week.
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Despite some progress in integrating civilian vessels with military exercises, the PLA may still not have the range of amphibious landing capabilities or the over-the-shore logistics needed for a major cross-strait attack on Taiwan before at least 2030, the report said.
“The PLA continued to make progress in 2023 to reduce its potential risk and losses,” Dahm wrote.
“However, this report assesses that at least through 2030, the PLA’s reserve civilian merchant fleet is probably unable to provide significant amphibious landing capabilities or the maritime logistics in austere or challenging environments necessary to support a large-scale, cross-strait invasion of Taiwan.
“That said, if current trends in training and exercises continue, the PLA may be able to effectively leverage civil maritime shipping on a large enough scale to support a major amphibious operation by the mid-2030s.”
The deck carriers are part of the PLA’s efforts to improve its amphibious landing and logistics abilities, skills that would be crucial to an attack on Taiwan.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. The United States, like most countries, does not recognise self-governed Taiwan as an independent state, but is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is committed to arming it.
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The PLA has in recent years used civilian vessels – including cargo ships and civilian ferries – to transport troops and equipment between ports.
China has many more deck cargo ships – both large and small – than large, ocean-going ferries.
With their open decks, deck cargo ships could allow the PLA to transport forces across short distances, such as in a cross-strait operation. Larger deck cargo ships would also support helicopter operations, acting as “lily pads” where they could refuel and rearm, the report said.
Dahm said that based on media reports, commercially available shipping tracking data, and satellite imagery, he concluded that 39 Chinese-owned and flagged merchant ships spent a combined total of 812 days in support of PLA activities last year.
That was a modest increase compared with 2022, when a total of 36 merchant ships took part in a combined 733 days of drills amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, last year large deck cargo ships were observed supporting PLA exercises for the first time.
The report said commercial satellite imagery in July showed three deck cargo ships lifting military vehicles between two ports in Fujian, the coastal mainland province closest to Taiwan.
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Also in July, seven deck cargo ships, together with five large roll-on-roll-off ferries and two general cargo ships also took part in a three-day drill between two ports in Fujian. The movements of the 14 vessels suggested that they could carry out a one-way lift ferrying as many as 1,000 vehicles between the two ports.
Dahm said the PLA’s use of civilian ships also appeared to be “more concentrated” in 2023, with such vessels supporting military activity for 611 ship days between July and September, the peak training season.
It was nearly a third more than in 2022, when civilian vessels registered 462 ship days over the same period.
Dahm said the increase in support during specific periods indicated improved coordination and effectiveness between the fleets.
