China’s General Liu Zhenli likely to step in for missing defence minister at security forum as US military talks resume
- Veteran of Chinese-Vietnamese war expected to be face of PLA in meetings with US representatives following unexplained disappearance of minister Li Shangfu
- High-level communication between US military and PLA at Beijing-organised regional security forum this month could pave way for presidential talks
General Liu Zhenli is expected to play a central role at a Beijing-organised security forum later this month as China resumes high-level military communications with the United States, according to observers and sources.
Li, the chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army joint staff, is likely to become the face of the PLA in its meeting with US representatives at the Xiangshan Forum following the unexplained disappearance of China’s defence minister Li Shangfu.
The resumption of high-level military communication between China and the US would also pave the way for a potential meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in San Francisco, defence analysts added.
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“Beijing takes the face-to-face meeting at Xiangshan Forum very seriously, as it will be the first step in the resumption of engagement between Chinese senior generals and their US colleagues,” said Zhou Chenming, a researcher at Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing.
“There are no more obstacles to hinder the resumption of Sino-US high-level military communications now, making the forum a timely platform for both sides to have a symbolic ceremony for their relationship restoration.”
It is not clear who will be sent by the Pentagon to attend the coming forum, but a source close to the PLA told the South China Morning Post that Beijing did not expect either Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin or the newly appointed head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charles Brown, to attend.
“Beijing believes Brown is an enthusiastic person. Since he took the new post [late last month], Brown has told a Chinese military attaché to the US that he wants to meet his Chinese counterpart, Liu Zhenli,” the source who requested anonymity, told the Post.
“But Beijing is cautious, because both sides have yet to come up with specific and good topics for discussion … China wants to use the Xiangshan talks as a warm-up occasion to reopen talks between senior officers of the two militaries.”
There has been no explanation from Beijing, fuelling speculation Li could be under investigation and that a replacement could be announced soon. General Liu is the front runner for the position.
China’s legislature announced on Friday it would host another National People’s Congress Standing Committee on October 20, offering a window for the change of defence minister just before the Xiangshan Forum starts. Proposals for “appointments and dismissals” are on the main agenda, according to the announcement.
A military source said: “As one of the very rare war heroes who participated in the [Chinese-Vietnamese] war ... Liu is the most ideal and qualified person to take over Li’s post”.
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The source said no final decision had been made by the Central Military Commission “because all investigations against Li and other senior generals are still going on amid the new anti-graft wave”.
The Xiangshan Forum – which Beijing uses to voice its views on regional disputes – has been held since 2006 but was cancelled in 2020 and 2021 because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Two days of online discussions were held last year.
“I would not be surprised that Beijing announces the resumption of military-to-military dialogue because the [Chinese Communist] Party is trying to improve the atmosphere before Xi Jinping visits the United States next month,” said Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
The Pentagon accepted China’s invitation, issued in August, to attend the Xiangshan Forum, as Washington has also been eager to revive military-to-military communications with Beijing, Reuters reported on Thursday. It said the US military did not reveal who it would send.
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In 2019, then deputy assistant secretary of defence for China Chad Sbragia attended, making him the most senior American official to take part to date. Sbragia told Reuters he was also invited this year and would attend as a former official.
Beijing-based naval analyst Li Jie, said he expected Washington to send someone more senior this year.
“After the White House sent its top officials in diplomatic, commercial and financial areas to Beijing early this year, now it’s time for Pentagon senior officials to come,” Li said, referring to visits made by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other ministers since both sides resumed bilateral engagement a few months ago.
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“The Pentagon’s pressing concern is that the PLA might seize the opportunity to attack Taiwan … the Americans need to come and make it clear, to remind the PLA of the importance of maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, as well as other regional issues,” Ni said.
“The China-US bilateral engagement Washington wants is a coexistence of confrontation, competition and guardrails to prevent military conflicts, which is a special military-to-military relationship different from that of the Cold War, which means face-to-face engagement is still important.”
The space departments of the two countries also had a channel for communication, said Zhang Xiaogang, spokesman for China’s defence ministry, on Friday when responding to questions about military communications to avoid a space crisis.
