China’s latest drone export curbs ‘may be signal to West it is neutral in Russia-Ukraine war’
- Defence analysts said the restrictions may be a way of ‘protecting the national interest’ amid accusations China is supplying the Russian military
- Starting from next month exporters will need permission to export equipment that may have military uses
Starting from next month, exporters will require government approval to export civilian drones that could also have military applications.
They came as Russia promised a harsh response to recent drone attacks in central Moscow and annexed Crimea. Kyiv has not confirmed responsibility but Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky had earlier warned that war was coming to Russia.
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“The decision could be seen as a compromise [by Beijing] to avoid losing the international market and potential sanctions from the West, especially after the United States claimed that it had found exports of China-made drones to Russia,” said Macau-based analyst Antony Wong Tong.
“To protect its national interest, Beijing needs to make its neutral position clear, especially amid increasing pressure from the West.”
China has refused to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine but it has declared it will not supply the Russian military with weapons. It has also criticised Western countries for “adding fuel to the fire” by arming Ukraine.
But Beijing has been accused by Western countries of supporting Russia’s war effort, including by supplying equipment.
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In April, the Chinese commerce ministry said some civilian drone companies had “voluntarily suspended their operations in conflict areas” and accused Washington of spreading “false information about Chinese drone exports”.
But a report released by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence last Thursday said China was helping Russia evade sanctions and was probably providing Moscow with military and dual-use technology for use in its war against Ukraine.
Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Beijing-based Yuan Wan military science and technology think tank, said the restrictions on drone exports could be seen as a “responsible answer” to international calls for a peaceful settlement to the war.
“Beijing realised that it would be wrong if it doesn’t do anything to prevent the war from escalating,” he said.
“Since China opposes Western ‘long-arm jurisdiction’, the outside world should realise that it’s impossible for Beijing to stop other countries from reselling Chinese-made drone components to either Russia or Ukraine,” Zhou said.
Zhou also said it was well known that Russian producers have refitted their drones for military use with Chinese-made components sourced through third-party countries.
“For example, it was known that about 80 per cent of the Russian Lancet drones are actually parts made by China,” Zhou said.
The Russian aircraft have been used against Western supplied weapons such as the Leopard 2 tank and Caesar self-propelled howitzers.
Zhou also said Chinese commercial drone developers were now likely to make changes to their products so that they could not be retooled for military use.
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Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military aviation analyst, said Chinese commercial drones could still be used for reconnaissance and added: “It’s hard to predict whether Russia or Ukraine will be affected more, as it depends on how many drones they import from third parties.
“But China will suffer the most, because it used to have more than 70 per cent of market share in the international drone market.”
“To show China is a responsible great power, Beijing needs to show the world that it is willing to sacrifice its economic interests,” said Ni Lexiong, a professor of political science at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
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“The new restrictions are also a move to rebuke the West’s accusations that Beijing is benefiting from the war.”
In the first half of the year, Russia spent about US$562.7 million on drones and other equipment covered by the latest export restrictions, compared with Ukraine’s US$11.6 million, according to Chinese customs data.
But Russia’s imports in that period were up 56.6 per cent from a year earlier, while those from Ukraine fell 46.2 per cent.
Russia and Ukraine have also been buying drones from Iran and Turkey, and exports of restricted materials to both countries rose in the first half of the year, the customs figures show.
