China is facing more overseas security risks in year of elections, report says
- With more than 60 countries heading to the polls – including the US, Russia and India – expect a ‘new phase in the geopolitical game’
- Researchers from Chinese think tank analysed Beijing’s relationships with hundreds of countries, as well as their ties with Washington
With elections to be held in countries including the United States, Russia and India, it “will usher in a new phase in the geopolitical game”, Renmin University’s China Overseas Security Research Institute (COSRI) said in its latest report.
The report, which was released on Wednesday, analyses China’s relationships with 193 countries – 60 of them with elections coming up – and their ties with the US.
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It notes that countries such as Togo and Rwanda in Africa, and Tajikistan in Central Asia, could see a transition of power after decades under their current leaders.
The researchers named 29 countries – including the US, India, Ukraine, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe – as “extremely high” overseas security risks for China.
Some 63 nations were considered “high” risk, including Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and Myanmar.
The risk was “moderate” in Thailand, France, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and another 70 countries, while Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand and 24 other nations were in the “low” risk category.
“Without any doubt, I can say that the elections in the US this year are of extremely high risk and this [analysis] is based on both [our] scientific assessment and [the opinions] of our experts,” Qi said.
“[It is] not just the US suppressing us in all areas – from investment to trade – but also because [the US] is a global hegemony,” he said. “This is going to have an impact on our investment in other parts and regions of the world.”
Trump imposed several rounds of tariffs on Chinese imports during his 2016-20 presidency as part of a tough policy that affected trade and security ties between world’s two largest economies. The former president has said he plans to expand tariffs if he is re-elected.
The COSRI report looked at the election’s potential impact on US-China ties.
“If Biden is re-elected, he may have a relatively friendly attitude towards China, but would continue to restrict [China’s] investment in key areas,” it said. “If Trump wins, he will further increase China’s trade restrictions.”
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The report also highlighted other areas of concern for Beijing.
Meanwhile, the European Parliament elections in June will likely reshape the European Union’s political direction for the next five years. The report urged Chinese companies in Europe to step up efforts to explore local markets to offset pressure from the US.
The report identified higher security risks in Africa, where 15 countries will hold elections this year.
Political instability has long been a concern for foreign investors in Africa. China is the continent’s largest trading partner, a major credit provider and significant source of foreign investment, and its influence in Africa often comes under scrutiny during election campaigns.
The researchers said that since a number of African countries – including Uganda, Equatorial Guinea and Eritrea – had been ruled by a single party for a long time, “the political risks in these countries have increased exponentially as their leaders are getting old”.
