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In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we attempt to keep up with the ever-evolving tensions in the South China Sea following a busy time in the disputed waterway. Photo: AP

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Global Impact: China warns of infringing on its sovereignty, Philippines plans first submarine as South China Sea tensions continue

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
In this week’s issue, we attempt to keep up with the ever-evolving tensions in the South China Sea following a busy time in the disputed waterway

South China Sea

Maria Siow

Published: 2:00pm, 5 Feb 2024

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Tensions in the South China Sea show no signs of abating, with the Philippine navy expressing alarm this week over the growing presence of Chinese warships and maritime militia boats around Mischief Reef in the disputed waterway.

Navy spokesman Roy Vincent Trinidad said about 200 vessels, including coastguard fleets, were swarming the outcrop about 37km (23 miles) away from the Second Thomas Shoal, referred to by the Chinese as Renai Jiao.

Apart from upgrading all of the territorial features – islands, shoals and reefs – that the Philippines occupies in the region, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr made it clear that his country would purchase its first submarine to defend its maritime sovereignty.

China’s coastguard, on the other hand, said it had “driven off” four Filipinos from a disputed shoal, alleging that the latter had “illegally intruded into” the Scarborough Shoal.

05:22

Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues

These developments occurred just days after Beijing and Manila agreed to further improve maritime communication and “properly manage their differences through consultation” during their bilateral consultative mechanism meeting held in Shanghai.

Earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the Philippines to “act with caution” in the South China Sea dispute, pointing out that relations between Beijing and Manila relations are at a crossroads.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning minced no words when she warned that China would “respond resolutely” if the Philippines built a permanent structure in the Spratly Islands, known in China as the Nansha Islands, arguing that this would amount to “a significant move” that would “seriously infringe” on China’s sovereignty.

Separately, the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command held a new military exercise involving the navy and air force in the South China Sea, following the end of a two-day joint patrol by the United States and the Philippines.

01:00

Philippines accuses China of using water cannons to obstruct its vessels in South China Sea

Beijing also honoured one of its most advanced guided-missile destroyers – the Nanchang – as a “role model of the times” for a series of missions, including exercises around disputed regions in the South China Sea.

Ominously, a seasoned Chinese legal expert warned that China still has plenty of countermeasures – “a lot of legal weapons” – it could use against Manila if tensions between the two countries continue to escalate.

With months of naval skirmishes with China still fresh in its minds, the Philippines this week signed a coastguard-cooperation pact with Vietnam, pledging to share information, set up a communication hotline, and work on a joint coastguard committee.

Manila also plans to build on its partnership with Washington – US Navy fuel was recently shipped from the American base at Hawaii to Subic Bay in the west of Luzon – while expanding ties with other allies and “like-minded countries” including Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.

Beijing uses pinyin terms to double down on its claims over South China Sea

As a gesture of goodwill by a fellow Southeast Asian country, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said Manila and Jakarta should boost security ties “through concrete steps”, and even suggested that the Philippines purchase anti-submarine aircraft from Indonesia.

With more countries expressing anxieties over tensions in the South China Sea, China stated in no uncertain terms that outside interference is uncalled for, when it accused German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of “making unwarranted accusations” about China’s actions during its recent confrontations with Philippine vessels.

But that has not deterred France from discussing with Manila ways to strengthen military cooperation, including negotiations on allowing troops into the other’s territory for joint exercises.

Not to be outdone, the Italian Navy is also expected to send its flagship aircraft carrier Cavour, along with its battle group, to the region this year.

60-Second Catch-up

Philippines alarmed by 200 Chinese vessels at Mischief Reef, Marcos urges dialogue

Video: Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues

Opinion: If pushed, would Beijing build a naval outpost on Second Thomas Shoal too?

Beijing flexes maritime muscles as Manila’s ‘assertive transparency’ puts it on the defensive

Video: Philippines accuses China of using water cannons to obstruct its vessels in South China Sea

China’s envoy to Philippines lodges protest over weekend clashes

Beijing steps up military patrols as US and the Philippines conduct more drills in disputed waterway

Opinion: Asean, Beijing must address cyber threats in South China Sea talks

Beijing, Asean claimant states risk pushing beyond ‘grey zone between peace and war’ in 2024

Deep dives

The South China Sea and Taiwan may be twin powder kegs, but which is riskier?

As Taiwan and its newly elected president grab the headlines, another potential hotspot for US-China ties has been brewing in the region
Frequent clashes between China and the Philippines in disputed South China Sea has observers weighing the costs of an alternative conflict

Taiwan’s fate as a potential flashpoint in Beijing’s relations with Washington appears sealed after the island chose William Lai Ching-te to be its next president.

Beijing had long advised against a victory for Lai, from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and cast Saturday’s election as a choice between war and peace. If it now chooses to step up pressure on Taiwan, the United States might be prompted to make a tougher response, according to observers.

Beijing shows restraint as Philippines plans to upgrade South China Sea outposts

China appears to be taking ‘wait and see’ approach after Manila says it will improve facilities for troops deployed on disputed reefs and islands
Observers say Beijing could blockade Philippine ships – if the project goes ahead – but US involvement would complicate Chinese response

Beijing likely views Manila’s plan to upgrade its South China Sea outposts as a provocation, but it appears to be taking a “wait and see” approach rather than reacting swiftly, according to analysts.

Observers said Beijing would likely succeed in disrupting Manila’s project – if it indeed goes ahead – but any US involvement in helping the Philippines would complicate China’s available options.

Is Beijing warming to South China Sea code of conduct?

Tensions with the US and a stronger negotiating position after years of reclamation are likely to be driving Beijing’s renewed enthusiasm
But observers say there are also signs that the Southeast Asian bloc claimants are more interested in a meaningful result than a quicker one

One of the world’s lengthiest diplomatic sagas – the decades-long marathon between Beijing and Asean to agree a code of conduct in the South China Sea – is back in the spotlight, with a recent surge in tensions in the disputed waters.

China, which has been accused of dragging its feet for about a quarter of a century, has taken a number of recent opportunities to show its support for an early resolution to the regional debate.

South China Sea: Beijing’s approach ‘will badly backfire in the future’

China could do long-term damage to its relations and influence in Southeast Asia, observers say
Leaders are expected to raise concerns over Beijing’s new map of the waterway during Asean summit

Beijing risks damaging its ties in the region if it continues efforts to assert control in the disputed South China Sea, analysts said ahead of the annual Asean gathering.

They said recent developments in the resource-rich waterway served as a “warning” to regional governments, which would increasingly gravitate towards the United States and its Western allies.

How Philippines-China ideology clash could spike tensions in disputed waters

The countries’ opposing ideologies amid clashing sovereignty claims could lead to years of militarisation and confrontation in the region if not contained, analysts warn
Manila has been boosting defence ties with various countries with the aim of building ‘collective deterrence’ in the event of conflict in the region

The recent trading of barbs between China and the Philippines over ideological differences highlights the “perennial mistrust” between the two neighbours, experts say, noting that their disparate approaches to democracy and authoritarianism are likely to further escalate tensions in the South China Sea.

After Taiwan’s ruling-party candidate Lai Ching-te emerged victorious in the island’s presidential election earlier this month, Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr congratulated Lai, referring to the latter as president.

Will Manila’s plans to build in South China Sea escalate tensions with Beijing?

The Philippines allocates funds to build ‘permanent structure’ on disputed Second Thomas Shoal
The move will probably not cause ‘full-scale escalation’ of tensions but China is prepared to address further provocations, observers say

Manila’s approval of funding to build a “permanent structure” on a disputed reef is unlikely to lead to a “full-scale escalation” in the South China Sea, but Beijing has “many plans” to respond if the Philippines goes along with US provocations in the region, analysts said.

Tensions between Beijing and Manila over the Second Thomas Shoal were renewed last month after the Philippine congress allocated an undisclosed amount of money to build a permanent facility on the disputed reef, prompting strong condemnation from Beijing.

Will more assertive Philippine approach to South China Sea pay off?

Manila is trying to give its maritime confrontations with China maximum publicity in the hope of gaining more international support
Some observers question whether this approach will prompt a change in Chinese behaviour

Philippine coastguards have escorted boats to the South China Sea to resupply its military base on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal seven times in the past four months.

Each time, they have complained about China’s coastguards and maritime militia obstructing their journey to the disputed reef in the South China Sea or making dangerously close passes.

Philippines stands out in Asean over embrace of US’ Indo-Pacific strategy

The policy has raised ‘activity and presence’ of military exercises from the US, India, Germany and even Russia, in the South and East China seas
This stirs up a ‘South China Sea conflict vortex’, in which China exhibits assertiveness, buoyed by the US viewing Beijing as its ‘strategic competitor’

The Philippines is the odd one out in Asean in its total, welcoming embrace of the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy, while other member states have viewed Washington with caution and concern, according to speakers at a conference in Manila on South China Sea maritime security.

“The Indo-Pacific concept [by the US] is a trigger for South China Sea tensions,” Dr Supartono, director of Hang Tuah University in Surabaya, Indonesia, told the Maritime Security Conference in Metro Manila, held on November 22 by Singapore’s Asia Collective and the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation founded by security analyst Chester Cabalza.

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.