Why heated rhetoric over US immigration imperils Americans’ future

While immigration is an important topic in US politics, the simplistic rhetoric used around a complex issue only further stokes fear and anger
If US politicians are serious about serving the American people’s interests, they will abandon the overheated rhetoric and work to maximise the benefits of immigration while minimising its costs

Nancy Qian

Published: 8:30pm, 19 Mar 2024

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It is becoming increasingly apparent that immigration will be a major issue for voters in this year’s US presidential election. Since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, more than 6.2 million people who did not have permission to enter the United States have attempted to cross the border from Mexico, and more than 2 million have been allowed to remain while they await an immigration hearing.

This marked increase from previous years has become a source of controversy. While Biden’s critics claim – dubiously – that immigrants are driving up crime rates and taking Americans’ jobs, some Democrats are doubling down on calls to decriminalise illegal border crossings altogether. The first group accuses the second of undermining national security, while advocates of decriminalisation accuse immigration hardliners of racism and xenophobia.

With Americans arguably more divided than at any time since the civil war, US politicians are peddling simplistic rhetoric about an immensely complex issue to stoke fear and anger, deepening the country’s political polarisation.

But there is good news for the American people: The truth about immigration is far less frightening than what some politicians and media figures want you to believe. For starters, immigrants are much less likely to commit crime than US citizens. Nationwide, illegal immigrants tend to be incarcerated at a much lower rate than native-born Americans.

In Texas, for example, illegal immigrants, in 2018, were 45 per cent less likely to be convicted of a crime than native-born Americans. And the crime and incarceration rates for legal immigrants are even lower.

Republicans often point to a 2021 US Department of Justice report showing that federal arrests of non-US citizens increased by 234 per cent between 1998 and 2018, while those of US citizens rose by only 10 per cent. But this increase was driven entirely by arrests for immigration-related offences.

Immigrants wade through the Rio Grande as they cross the US-Mexico border to request asylum on March 13 in El Paso, Texas. The border between the two nations stretches from the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean and is marked by fences, deserts, mountains and the Rio Grande, which runs the entire length of Texas. The politics and controversies surrounding border and immigration issues have become dominant themes in the US presidential election campaign. Photo: AFP

If those are removed, arrest rates of non-citizens increased by only 5.1 per cent. In other words, when it comes to crimes that Americans can also be arrested for – such as theft or assault – the increase was lower for immigrants than it was for citizens.

But the other side of the debate also deserves some criticism. There is nothing necessarily xenophobic or bigoted about wanting to strengthen border security. Every country has a legitimate interest in controlling who enters its territory, just as every family has a right to decide who may enter their home. You can open your arms to your neighbours without removing the locks from your doors. This is common sense.

Immigration need not be a partisan issue. During Barack Obama’s presidency (when Biden was vice-president), the US deported more than 5.3 million people, or around 2.65 million per term, which is more than the 2 million deported during Donald Trump’s one term.

Activists with the pro-immigration organisation United We Dream block traffic on H Street near the White House in Washington during a June 5, 2014, rally to protest US President Barack Obama’s decision to delay for two months his revisions of deportation policies. Photo: EPA

Nor is the economic relationship between immigrants and natives as “zero-sum” as many assume. Although immigrants do compete with some Americans for jobs, the benefits they bring far outweigh the harms. One such benefit is tamer inflation. With around three job openings for every two jobseekers, the US urgently needs more immigrant labour.

Industries such as construction, agriculture and hospitality consistently rely on immigrants. When these jobs go unfilled, restaurants and other small businesses serve fewer people and fewer homes are built. These outcomes translate into higher prices for Americans and lower US competitiveness vis-à-vis other economies.

Economists typically find that immigration expands overall opportunities, raises wages and lowers prices. After all, if a factory in the US cannot find workers at globally competitive wages, it will go out of business or move to a location where labour is cheaper, such as Mexico or China.

Low-wage immigrant labour not only helps to keep the factory in the US. It also means that there will be more workers paying for housing, food, healthcare and consumer goods, thus creating more jobs and raising wages for other American workers.

Like it or not, migrants rich and poor will shape our economic futures

For demographic reasons, the US need for immigrant labour will only increase over time. In 2008, the US fertility rate dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman of child-bearing age. It has been falling steadily during the past decade, reaching 1.7 in 2021. Fewer births mean fewer workers in the future. An ever-smaller working population will have to support a larger retired population.

One concern is that low fertility leads to economic stagnation. Japan’s fertility rate dropped below replacement level in the 1970s and its average income stopped growing by the mid-1990s – not least because it remained wholly opposed to immigration. In China, now the world’s second-largest economy, low fertility has become one of the biggest challenges for long-run growth.

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The US has long been an exception precisely because its openness to immigrants has allowed it to keep growing robustly despite falling fertility. A steady stream of mostly healthy, young, eager workers from abroad has been key to maintaining economic dynamism. When managed properly, immigration benefits immigrants and native-born citizens alike.

But proper management calls for a thoughtful, evidence-based discussion. When cooler heads prevail, it is possible both to maximise the benefits of immigration while still maintaining border security and supporting workers in sectors that immigrants may enter. If US politicians are serious about serving the American people’s interests, they will abandon the overheated rhetoric and start doing their jobs.

Nancy Qian, professor of Economics at Northwestern University, is co-director of Northwestern University’s Global Poverty Research Lab and founding director of China Econ Lab. Copyright: Project Syndicate