The 1,000-day ordeals of Huawei Technologies CFO Meng Wanzhou and Canadian “hostages” Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig have ended. Canada suffered a series of migraines. China gained a heroine. The United States gained nothing at all.
But, in the short term, the deal is a win for all concerned.
Canada – the least blameworthy party – has secured the freedom of its citizens while upholding the rule of law. Many Canadians will be relieved that the timing of the release did not interfere with the election on September 20, though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, returned at the head of another minority government, may not be as pleased; had the deal been reached earlier, he might have fared better.
The US has reversed a decision that should never have been made. While the fraud case against Meng was solid – as she admitted before her release – having her detained was bad policy. In requesting Meng’s extradition in 2018, the Trump administration created a martyr and lent credence to Beijing’s claims that American law is a tool of American power.
Donald Trump himself implied that Meng was a political pawn when he said he might intervene in her case to seal a trade deal with China. The Meng issue created an unnecessary distraction at a time of inevitable friction in US-China relations. Holding her, moreover, did nothing to rein in Huawei; Trump’s decision to put Huawei on the Commerce Department’s “entity list” did that.
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Chinese netizens swoon over hero’s return and husband’s greeting for Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou
Chinese netizens swoon over hero’s return and husband’s greeting for Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou
In reaching a deferred prosecution agreement with Meng, the Biden administration removed a foreign policy distraction, aided its neighbour and created diplomatic space for Washington and Ottawa to align their China policies more closely. It did the right thing and strengthened a key alliance, even if the deal is a tacit admission that Meng’s detention was an American failure.
China is the biggest winner, in part because it is making the loudest noise and telling the least truth in the matter. The Chinese people are thrilled with Meng’s release.
Few of them know that Meng luxuriated in a Vancouver mansion and received every due protection under Canadian law, while Spavor and Kovrig languished in Chinese prison cells, were tried secretly, and denied full consular access. The common view in China is that Beijing’s actions were a bold, fair and effective defence of national honour.
Meng’s release gives President Xi Jinping a welcome boost during a tricky period. He has launched an economic and cultural rectification campaign which will slow China’s growth, wipe out fortunes, increase unemployment, and alienate entrepreneurs and innovators.
In the long term, the fallout from the Meng affair is more difficult to score.
Public opinion towards Beijing in Canada is arguably even lower than in the US. Canadians have learned that China will not hesitate to seize its citizens or threaten them with the death penalty if Ottawa takes actions Beijing dislikes.
That lesson will not be forgotten, even if China follows up on the dual releases with economic overtures designed to placate Canada and drive a wedge between Ottawa and Washington. China’s ambassador to Canada, Cong Peiwu, abused his hosts throughout Meng’s detention, calling them racists and tools of the US.
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‘Our China policy has not changed,’ says White House after release of Huawei CFO Meng
‘Our China policy has not changed,’ says White House after release of Huawei CFO Meng
What will Canadians make of such disrespect? Will Ottawa try to stay in China’s good graces, or will it take the Australian approach to Chinese economic coercion and strengthen its alliances?
Public opinion towards Washington in Canada has been trending downwards. The return of the Michaels may change some minds. Yet it is not lost on most Canadians that they were helpless in the face of Chinese belligerence.
In their view, Trump handled the Meng case recklessly and Joe Biden has seemed dismissive of Canadian priorities, such as the Line 5 pipeline and evacuating Canadian civilians from Kabul in a safe, timely manner.
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Biden vows US help to free Canadians held in China after first bilateral meeting with Trudeau
Biden vows US help to free Canadians held in China after first bilateral meeting with Trudeau
China is emboldened, but its brazen use of hostage diplomacy has been noted around the world and no major trading nation has supported Beijing’s claim that Meng is an innocent victim. The international community is likely to draw two conclusions from the end of this affair, neither of which favour China:
Chinese corporations will lie to foreign banks, regulators and governments to complete deals supported by Beijing; and, the Chinese government will take foreign hostages to achieve commercial and diplomatic ends.
The reputational costs of China’s victory may persist long after the celebrations die down. Chinese leaders may think their handling of the issue ensures that no one will mess with them. Their danger is that fewer nations and institutions will want to deal with them at all.
For the US, a misadventure has ended, but opportunity has been created. With the Michaels home, Washington has the scope to work more closely with Canada to shape both nations’ China policies. Consultations should begin at once, if they’re not already under way.
Closer partnership with Ottawa should be pursued in tandem with efforts to heal transatlantic rifts caused by the evacuation of Kabul and the roll-out of the Aukus security alliance. Canada should henceforth be a full partner in US-European Union discussions of the China challenge. American overtures in Europe will have a better chance of success if Canada is on board.
Over the past three years, it has exemplified the kind of mettle and principled patience that will be needed to compete effectively with China.
Christopher Sands directs the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute. Robert Daly directs its Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
