Can John Lee heal Hong Kong’s deep political, economic and social wounds?

Early progress on urgent issues including the economy, housing and community healing post-2019 will build Lee’s credentials
But restoring Hong Kong’s reputation as ‘Asia’s world city’ will be challenging. And Lee’s advantages – no track record, a clean balance sheet – will not last long

David Dodwell

Published: 4:30pm, 24 Apr 2022

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We are calling it an election, but it is light years away from the nail-biting democratic antics in Paris, Pakistan or the Philippines. On May 8, John Lee Ka-chiu, 35-years a police officer, and more recently secretary for security, is set to be confirmed by an Electoral College of 1,454 patriots as Hong Kong’s fifth chief executive.

When the imperative from Beijing is for stability, after 2019’s traumatising street riots and two terrible years hermetically sealed from the world by the Covid-19 pandemic, Lee offers a stability many crave.

Whether he can lift a community out of its deep funk, heal crippling social divisions, revive a seriously injured economy and expunge the pariah status so many in the West have branded on us is another matter.

Lee is an enigma to most Hongkongers. We know next to nothing about his political manifesto. He admits to not knowing much about finance and economics, but sees that as no impediment to leadership. But no one can doubt the stability of his temperament or the steadfastness of his loyalty as a patriot.

He has promised three priorities: enhancing Hong Kong’s competitiveness; strengthening its foundations for development; and pragmatism: “I have always believed that aside from procedural compliance, our ultimate objective must be to achieve results,” he said. “I intend to effect changes on government philosophy, and ways of doing things, so as to enhance the effectiveness of policy implementation.”

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Those learned in deciphering such runic assurances say this means he will reduce bureaucracy and attack the obsessive procrastination that has characterised and hobbled Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s time in office.

After 35 years in the disciplined services, we can expect him to be decisive and – yes – disciplined.

Since he became secretary for security in 2017, he has built a Rottweiler reputation for focus and determination, first in attempting to push through the infamous extradition bill, then in managing the government’s handling of the 2019 riots, and finally in rallying patriotic support for the national security bill.

This has won him deep trust from Beijing, but vilification in the United States and Britain, and banishment from YouTube.

He seems willing to be a contrarian. Despite excellent exam results at the Jesuit-run Wah Yan College in Kowloon, he spurned a university place to study engineering, joining the police instead as a cadet.

There followed 35 steady years of his quiet, meritocratic rise to deputy police commissioner. Fascinatingly, his Wikipedia profile lists his duties as ranging from the Crime Investigation Department to Complaints Against Police Office, across service quality, personnel, training, information systems, finance, policy formulation, and planning and development, including being commander of the Kowloon West region – superb credentials to head the police force or for security secretary, but not obvious for Hong Kong’s top political office.

From the left, then deputy police commissioner John Lee with commissioner Andy Tsang Wai-hung and deputy commissioner Xavier Tang Kam-moon. at the Wan Chai police headquarters on January 6, 2011. Photo: David Wong

He, his wife of 42 years and two sons have led unpretentious lives, uncluttered by membership of fashionable clubs or any close links with the opulent business elite.

This blank political sheet may be attractive to Beijing. Lee understands but is not rooted in the bureaucracy being blamed for recent political and Covid-19 mismanagement. He may be untutored in business and economics but he is not indebted to any of the powerful vested business interests that have hummed around the administration over the past two decades.

This means he can address Hong Kong’s many challenges without being pressured by those interests. This is helpful, but does not make his task less daunting. If he is to build his credibility as a “result-oriented” leader, then early progress on several issues will be essential.

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First is the task of opening up the economy, both internationally and to the mainland, and engineering a recovery likely to be slow and painful. He will need to start by acknowledging the scale of the harm done – the companies destroyed, careers ruined, hardships suffered and schooling disrupted.

Credibly recreating Hong Kong as “Asia’s world city” would be challenging even for the most experienced economic teams, so Lee’s lack of economic management experience puts his feet immediately to the fire.

Tackling the chronic housing shortage and ensuing deep inequalities will be his second most daunting task – though people are already talking about using emergency quarantine facilities as a reservoir of emergency housing. Swift elimination of Hong Kong’s “caged home” embarrassment would have a powerful positive impact on his credibility.

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Speedy development of meaningful linkages with Shenzhen and the Greater Bay Area, and laying foundations for the Northern Metropolis, would be welcomed – even more so if it included the formal abandonment of the Lantau Tomorrow Vision.

Perhaps the gravest urgent challenge is to begin healing Hong Kong’s deep wounds post-2019. If Lee, or the patriots and mainland officials backing him, believe that calm and stability have been sustainably restored to Hong Kong, they are seriously fooling themselves.

The liberal-minded half of Hong Kong’s community that exploded irrationally and destructively on the streets in 2019 may have been defanged but they remain sullen, cowed and unforgiving. The embers of their grievances are still being fanned by those in exile or behind bars, and by many Western sympathisers.

The serious work of regenerating their support and engagement has barely begun, and will sit immediately at Lee’s door if, as expected, he emerges as chief executive on July 1.

At present, he has the advantage of no track record, and a clean balance sheet. That is an advantage that will not last very long.

David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view