German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr brief the media after a meeting at the chancellery in Berlin on March 12. During Scholz’s tenure, Germany has steadily moved away from focusing exclusively on economic concerns and seeking more global influence. Photo: AP
Opinion
Richard Heydarian
Richard Heydarian
How Germany is reshaping the world in era of US-China rivalry
Under Olaf Scholz, Germany has moved away from a passive ‘change through trade’ approach to take a more active role in global affairs
Few countries are better-positioned than Germany to promote a constructive, collaborative global order against the backdrop of intensifying superpower rivalry
“We want to do whatever we can to help settle tensions in a peaceful manner,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said of the South China Sea territorial disputes while standing next to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr.
“This is about adhering to international law, ensuring the freedom of navigation. We are working to ensure that the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea is being adhered to by all its parties,” Scholz added, emphasising the utmost importance of de-escalation and the code of conduct negotiations for the South China Sea.
Crucially, Scholz also referred to the 2016 arbitral tribunal award, which invalidated China’s expansive claims in adjacent waters. He made it clear that he believes it “to be very important that each and every one adheres to the legislation in place”.
During his state visit to Berlin, Marcos made it clear he had “no choice” but to defend his country’s sovereign rights in the area. But the Filipino leader also clarified that he was not just rejecting any proposals China made and that diplomacy was still his preferred option.
Scholz, who hosted three Southeast Asian leaders this month, at once positioned Germany as a global leader by expressing support for fellow democracies such as the Philippines, as well as underscoring the importance of regional diplomacy and international law in resolving conflicts in Asia. However, he steered clear of directly criticising China or signalling any alignment with the US “integrated deterrence” strategy against Beijing.
If anything, Scholz is expected to visit Beijing next month to further buttress Sino-German economic cooperation as well as exercise constructive diplomacy in areas of geopolitical divergence. Germany, now the world’s third-largest economy, is signalling its preference for a different approach to global diplomacy that seeks to both stabilise and transcend the US-China rivalry.
Scholz rose to national prominence when he served as finance minister under former German chancellor Angela Merkel. However, he initially struggled to escape the shadow of his predecessor, who dominated European politics for more than a decade.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Scholz to up his statesmanship, leading him to declare an epochal turning point in Germany’s foreign policy. Accordingly, he promised to revisit the country’s post-Cold War strategy, which deliberately eschewed an assertive defence policy in favour of a “change through trade” to approach authoritarian powers such as Russia.
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Vladimir Putin deploys troops near Finland border, warns that Russia is ‘ready’ for nuclear war
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Thus, Berlin began to reconsider its economic engagement with Moscow and adopted a more proactive defence policy, including the transfer of military hardware to Ukraine. When it comes to Germany’s Asia policy, however, Scholz has broadly held onto the country’s 2020 Indo-Pacific strategy, which underscored the importance of both economic engagement and a proactive defence policy.
Berlin has largely resisted Washington’s approach in favour of constructive engagement with China. A little more than a year into office, Scholz became the first Western leader to visit China after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, a decision that drew sharp criticism from Germany’s transatlantic allies as well as coalition partners at home.
The visit also came on the heels of Scholz’ decision to overrule Germany’s defence and political establishment, including his cabinet members, in favour of a major Chinese investment in a Hamburg port terminal. During his conversation with former premier Li Keqiang, the German leader made it clear that “we do not believe in ideas of decoupling”, though he did emphasise the importance of maintaining “economic ties as equals, with reciprocity”.
Far from ingratiating himself to Beijing, however, Scholz reiterated his country’s categorical opposition to any coercive change in cross-straits relations and that “any change in Taiwan’s status quo must be peaceful or by mutual agreement”. Meanwhile, President Xi Jinping reassured Scholz that he would oppose, in tandem with other major powers, Russia’s potential “use of, or threats to use, nuclear weapons” in Ukraine.
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‘Any change in Taiwan’s status quo must be peaceful,’ German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tells China
‘Any change in Taiwan’s status quo must be peaceful,’ German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tells China
By all indications, Scholz’s upcoming visit to China is likely to seek to build on his constructive approach to diplomatic engagement. In this sense, he is not only resisting the approach to China favoured by the United States but could also facilitate a more durable Sino-American detente by re-emphasising areas of shared global interests.
Crucially, Germany is also eager to develop ties with other emerging middle powers in the Global South. Based on my recent exchanges with the German chancellor and leading strategists in Berlin, it’s clear that Europe’s largest economy is actively seeking comprehensive strategic partnerships with rising powers, especially India as well as key Southeast Asian nations such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Germany’s frigate Bayern was dispatched to the South China Sea in 2021, the first for a German warship in almost two decades. Photo: dpa
Germany has an inherent interest in diversifying its economic partnerships to reduce its dependence on China as well as form deeper defence cooperation with like-minded players in Asia with a focus on maritime security and cybersecurity. To underscore its commitment, Germany is not only expanding its strategic investment footprint in the Indo-Pacific but also stepping up its defence policy and naval deployments there, albeit in a calibrated fashion.
The ultimate aim is to underscore Germany’s active contribution to a rules-based international order, build a network of partnerships with fellow middle powers in the world’s most dynamic region and help create a pluralistic order that transcends the whims of any superpower.
It remains to be seen if Scholz will succeed in his global strategy, which rejects subservience to any superpower. What is clear is that few countries are better-positioned than Germany in promoting a constructive and collaborative global order against the backdrop of intensifying superpower rivalry.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise
