Taiwan, US elections and South China Sea tensions could make 2024 even more geopolitically perilous
Rising Philippine-China tensions over disputes related to the South China Sea have coincided with deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington
Elections next year in Taiwan and the US could further inflame tensions in the region. There is an urgent need for a mutually acceptable compromises on high-stakes issues
“We have to do something that we have not done before. We have to come up with a new concept, a new principle, a new idea,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr said in response to escalating tensions in the South China Sea.
“We do not want to go to the point where there are incidents that might cause an actual violent conflict. Maybe from a mistake or a misunderstanding, and these things happen all the time,” he added, emphasising the need for nothing less than a “paradigm shift” in the country’s foreign policy.
The stark comments by Marcos came shortly before an exchange between top diplomats of China and the Philippines. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned “China-Philippines relations are at a crossroads” in a call with Philippine Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo and called on the Philippines to act with caution.
The situation is increasingly dire. In the past three months alone, the Philippines and China have been involved in multiple dangerous encounters in the South China Sea, particularly over the Second Thomas Shoal. Both sides have taken an uncompromising stance on the maritime dispute, raising the risk of unwanted conflict.
To make matters worse, rising Philippine-China tensions have coincided with deteriorating relations between the world’s two superpowers. Elections next year, first in Taiwan and later in the United States, could further inflame tensions in the region.
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Marcos Jnr says China showing interest in South China Sea atolls that lie close to the Philippines
Marcos Jnr says China showing interest in South China Sea atolls that lie close to the Philippines
As Marcos correctly pointed out, we need a “paradigm shift” which allows each side to preserve their core interests while instituting sufficient guardrails to prevent unwanted conflict.
In terms of the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific, the past year was troubling. Not long after a seemingly promising meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Bali last year, the two superpowers quickly reverted to an antagonistic relationship.
China has cried foul over a new series of US sanctions against its strategic industries, especially semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has doubled down on military cooperation with a host of nations around China under an “integrated deterrence” strategy. The Biden administration has simultaneously strengthened multiple regional alliances, including the trilateral US-Japan-South Korea and Australia-United Kingdom-US (Aukus) groupings.
In addition, the US has increased its engagement with non-aligned nations such as India and Vietnam to counteract China. In response, Beijing has accused the US of trying to contain the rise of China by embracing a Cold War mentality.
US President Joe Biden (centre left) clinks glasses with Vietnam’s President Vo Van Thuong during a state luncheon at the Presidential Palace in Hanoi, Vietnam, on September 11. Biden arrived in Hanoi after attending the Group of 20 summit in India. Photo: EPA-EFE
Meanwhile, China has pressed ahead with a more assertive stance in adjacent waters, particularly in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Emboldened by its deepening alliance with the US and growing support from like-minded Indo-Pacific powers, the Philippines has doubled down on its own patrols in the disputed areas and promised to fortify its facilities on features which China also claims.
The upshot is a dangerous escalatory dynamic which saw Chinese vessels using water cannons against Philippine resupply ships, including one that had the Philippine military chief on board, while a Chinese fighter jet came within 10 feet of a US B-52 bomber flying over the South China Sea. But we could face an even a more geopolitically perilous year ahead.
First, Taiwan’s elections could end up cementing the position of pro-independence elements. The latest polls suggest the Democratic Progressive Party ticket of William Lai Ching-te and former Taiwanese representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim is still in the lead.
Next year will also see a particularly heated US election, likely pitting the incumbent Biden against former president Donald Trump. Notwithstanding partisan polarisation, an anti-China bipartisan consensus has emerged in Washington.
This seems to reflect broader public opinion in the US, with four out of five Americans holding unfavourable views of China and two-thirds viewing China as a “critical threat” in a Gallup poll earlier this year. As a result, Biden is likely to come under growing pressure to maintain a tough line on China to fend off hawkish Republican rivals.
The US is also likely to face growing pressure to stand with Taiwan as well as the Philippines. China has warned the Philippines against building structures over the Second Thomas Shoal, but Manila insists on full sovereign rights over the shoal based on a 2016 arbitral tribunal decision.
Should the Philippines press ahead with building permanent structures over the shoal and insist on US military assistance to ward off China, a military clash in the area would become a distinct possibility. With anti-China sentiment gaining ground in the Philippines, especially ahead of the 2025 midterm elections, Marcos is under growing pressure to do something drastic to reinforce his country’s claims in the South China Sea.
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Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues
Why the South China Sea dispute remains one of the region’s most pressing issues
However, there is sufficient strategic maturity as well as responsible statesmanship on all sides to avoid disaster. This was on display during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, on the sidelines of which Xi met his American and Filipino counterparts to discuss de-escalation mechanisms.
It goes without saying that the West shouldn’t underestimate China’s resolve to reinforce its claims in adjacent waters. However, Beijing should realise that smaller claimant states such as the Philippines are not pushovers. Aside from establishing robust guardrails and communications channels, it’s necessary for the US and its regional allies to pursue firm yet productive diplomacy with China.
The ultimate aim should be a mutually acceptable compromise on high-stakes issues coupled with a commitment to sustained de-escalation, especially in the South China Sea. Otherwise, the world’s most dynamic region could sleepwalk into a cataclysmic conflict.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise
