Why India’s G20 triumph means much more than the tangible results

New Delhi is framing the summit as the country’s coming-out party, capping a year of milestones and on a par with the Beijing 2008 Olympics
India has hit a geopolitical sweet spot, and is in a stronger position today than it was the last time it had a prominent international role, under Nehru

Chietigj Bajpaee

Published: 9:30am, 19 Sep 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

The symbolic outcomes of the recent G20 summit in India are as significant as the tangible outcomes.

With its Group of 20 presidency, India has managed to democratise the summit both within the country – by hosting G20-related events across the country and thus opening what has historically been a largely elite-driven event to the masses – and globally by raising the voice of the Global South. Notably, the African Union was added as a new permanent member, effectively turning the G20 into the G21.

India’s G20 presidency brought India to the world, but it also brought the world to India as it served to invigorate public debate on global issues while simultaneously highlighting the growing importance of India to the world. This will undoubtedly be another feather in the cap of Prime Minister Narendra Modi ahead of next year’s general election (which could partially explain New Delhi’s decision to delay assuming its G20 presidency by a year by swapping with the intended 2023 host, Indonesia).

The Modi government has referred to India as “vishwa guru” – a teacher of the world offering Indian solutions to issues of global governance ranging from climate change to digital public infrastructure and global health. India’s commitment to globalisation – albeit a more equitable model of globalisation – also contrasts with the more insular world view that has taken hold in the West in recent years.

In getting the disparate group of G20 countries to sign off on a joint statement – an outcome that had been in doubt – India highlighted its convening power, collaborative approach and ability to get things done. In this context, India is not only a voice of the Global South, but also a potential bridge between the Global South and the West (prompting a reference to India as a “South Western country”).

However, this symbolic triumph is a double-edged sword. India’s G20 presidency also reflected the challenges of navigating a climate of growing geopolitical polarisation amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine and widening fissures in the US-China relationship.

03:15

US, Russia praise G20 summit declaration as India meeting closes without Putin and China’s Xi

The absence of the Chinese and Russian presidents from the summit proceedings, for example, gave the lie to the theme of India’s G20 presidency, “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (“One Earth, One Family, One Future”). These fissures will make it harder to reach consensus on issues of global governance including pandemic response and climate change.

While the New Delhi summit did manage to produce a joint statement, the fact that references to the Ukraine conflict had to be watered down (there was no criticism of Russia) demonstrated that consensus comes at a cost.

Of course, this does not take away from India’s achievements. New Delhi is framing India’s G20 presidency as the country’s coming-out party, on a par with China’s 2008 Olympics.

It comes as a culmination to what has been a year of milestones for the country, including the recent moon landing, the red-carpet welcome for Modi in Washington, and India surpassing China as the world’s most populous country and the United Kingdom as the world’s fifth largest economy.

The country is finding a geopolitical sweet spot, and the government has acknowledged this by characterising the current period until India’s centenary in 2047 as a critical period, or “Amrit Kaal”. India stands to benefit as the shine comes off China’s economic model amid slowing growth; meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for India, amid expectations that it will be the fastest-growing major economy this year.

India is also a potential beneficiary of the push to de-risk supply chains from China, particularly in areas involving critical and emerging technologies.

Labourers work at a building construction site in Mumbai on September 12. The IMF has raised its forecast for India, amid expectations that it will be the fastest-growing major economy this year. Photo: AFP

However, India’s rise is not inevitable. The last time India sought to play such a prominent role in global leadership was during the tenure of India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. During this period, India projected itself as a voice of what was then referred to as the Third World.

It was architect of the Non-Aligned Movement and also played an important mediatory role during various conflicts, including the Korean war. However, this phase of Indian internationalism came to an abrupt halt when geopolitical developments and domestic politics derailed India’s global ambitions.

India is of course in a much stronger position today. It is expected to surpass Germany and Japan as the world’s third largest economy by the end of this decade. It now maintains a world-class military, unlike in 1962, when it suffered a humiliating defeat to China in their brief border war.

While the Indian policy of non-alignment forced it to choose between the US and Soviet Union during the Cold War, today the Indian government maintains good relations with both the United States and Russia and all major poles of influence in the international system today (with the notable exception of China).

However, India’s ability to leverage and retain this geopolitical sweet spot will be dictated by its ability to navigate a challenging global geopolitical environment and a divisive domestic political climate.

Chietigj Bajpaee is a senior fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, a London-based public policy think-tank