Indonesia’s Joko Widodo is showing Asean a way forward with steady, pragmatic diplomacy

The Indonesian president seems determined to contain multiple crises in Southeast Asia as well as head off a clash among rival powers in the Indo-Pacific
His cautious approach risks inaction that further deepens regional crises, but it also holds the promise of building a more capable, coherent Asean

Richard Heydarian

Published: 8:30am, 13 Sep 2023

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“All of us sitting in this room have an equal responsibility to create peace, stability and prosperity in the region. We all have the same responsibility to refrain from creating new conflicts, to refrain from creating new tensions, to refrain from creating new wars,” Indonesian President Joko Widodo said during the East Asia Summit in Jakarta.

With leaders from all of the major Indo-Pacific powers in attendance, Widodo reiterated how the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) “will continue to contribute to peace and stability” and called on his peers from across the region to “continue to make this region an epicentrum of growth”.

Far from offering empty talk, he seemed determined to contain multiple crises in the region as well as head off a clash among rival powers in the Indo-Pacific. Asean faces multiple challenges in its own neighbourhood, especially the rising tensions in the South China Sea and the festering civil war in Myanmar.

However, Asean fell far short of making a decisive move to address urgent crises in its own backyard. The lengthy chairman’s statement produced largely vague commitments without any concrete action. The upshot is growing doubts, especially among external powers, about the efficacy of Asean as a driver of regional integration.

Upon closer examination, however, it’s clear that Indonesia’s strategy is to focus on Asean’s economic strength, upgrade ties with like-minded middle powers and maintain balanced ties with competing superpowers. It seems determined to play the long game, giving Southeast Asian nations more opportunity to build their own capacity and gradually address challenges through collective action.

As this year’s rotational chair of Asean, Indonesia was doubly under pressure. To begin with, the country’s broadly successful chairing of the influential G20 summit last year raised expectations to new heights.

Indonesia managed to deftly navigate the issue of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by emphasising the importance of territorial integrity and national sovereignty while also nudging Russia to facilitate steady outflow of food and basic commodities from the conflict zone amid global inflation.

Just as crucial was Widodo’s successful hosting of a timely summit between the leaders of the United States and China. The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in Bali last year helped reduce geopolitical tensions in the wake of then US speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

03:33

Xi, Biden discuss Taiwan and Xinjiang in first in-person meeting

Moreover, Indonesia’s long history of constructive leadership in Asean raised hopes of decisive action this year. The last time Jakarta was in charge of the regional body, it helped prevent full-scale armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and successfully nudged them to resolve their dispute through international arbitration.

Shortly after, it also prevented complete fragmentation of Asean following Cambodia’s decision to block any discussion of the South China Sea disputes. Indonesian foreign minister at the time, Marty Natalegawa, combined diplomatic subtlety with strategic proactiveness to foster a semblance of unity even on deeply divisive issues.

With Indonesia’s emergence as a bigger global player in recent years, many naturally expected it to play an even more decisive role in Asean this year. For Widodo, who is in his last few months in office, Indonesia’s chairmanship of the regional body this year will greatly shape his legacy. He said earlier this year that “Asean unity is needed to formulate the way forward”, but the bloc faces several daunting challenges.

For example, China’s ill-timed new “standard map”, which covers much of the South China Sea and other disputed territory, has enraged the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam.

As if that were not enough, some Asean states are pushing for more radical responses to the Myanmar crisis. For instance, Malaysia implied the potential expulsion of Myanmar’s junta by emphasising the need for “strong” measures against the country’s ruling generals.

02:21

Indonesian president calls for ‘more unity’ to resolve Myanmar crisis

However, this month’s Asean summit ended with a lengthy statement which largely sidelined the South China Sea and Myanmar issues. Instead, it focuses on reinforcing Asean’s economic momentum as well as deepening relations with like-minded powers.

By all indications, Widodo settled for a more pragmatic approach which upheld three important elements.

First, he ensured Asean remains a neutral, constructive platform for dialogue among major powers. By preserving the bloc’s status as an inclusive multilateral platform, Indonesia hopes to maintain balanced relations with rival powers, in particular the US and China. Not only has Asean refused to take sides between the two, it has, via quiet diplomacy conducted by key members, coaxed Washington and Beijing to embrace healthy competition, especially in the realms of trade and investment.

US can’t rely on military prowess alone to counter China in Asia

This brings us to the second factor, which is Widodo’s determination to focus on Asean’s growth momentum. This explains Asean’s theme this year – “epicentrum of growth” – and the prominence of trade and investment issues in its joint statement. For Indonesia, it is paramount for Southeast Asian states to enhance their economic competitiveness, which in turn will help strengthen their geopolitical position.

Finally, Indonesia’s leadership of Asean has seen a steady expansion in the bloc’s strategic cooperation with a whole host of like-minded middle powers. By building a diverse network of partnerships, Indonesia hopes to strengthen the collective voice of non-aligned nations who are increasingly worried about the prospect a full-blown cold war in the Indo-Pacific.

There is the risk that Widodo’s relatively cautious approach could result in further inaction, thus deepening multiple crises in Asean’s backyard. Even so, it also holds the promise of building the foundations of a more capable and coherent regional body by carefully eschewing seemingly intractable challenges. No less than Widodo’s foreign policy legacy is at stake.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise