With US democracy in crisis, Global South must ensure peaceful transition to a more equitable world order

America’s tunnel vision on China and misreading of the Global South’s aspirations are pushing the realignment of geopolitics towards open conflict
As a result, developing nations must remain resolute in pursuing collaboration over confrontation

Peter T. C. Chang

Published: 1:30am, 6 Sep 2023

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The stability of US democracy is facing existential challenges. Apart from the risk of a power transfer crisis at home, America is also grappling with a tense reconfiguration of the world’s geopolitical centre away from the Global North. Nations in the Global South must continue to advocate for collaboration over confrontation to facilitate a peaceful transition from the Western-centred world order to a more equitable one.

Despite having five prime ministers in as many years, Malaysia’s stance on the US-China rivalry has remained constant. During his keynote address at the Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur last month, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim reiterated Malaysia’s call for the two superpowers to coexist for the betterment of the global community.

Malaysia’s consistent non-aligned stance, however, is the exception rather than the norm. In countries such as the Philippines and South Korea, changes in national leadership triggered major shifts in foreign policy. The administrations of Ferdinand Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and Yoon Suk-yeol, for example, have reversed their predecessors’ balancing strategies and adopted a more pro-US posture.

Next year will see two crucial elections with significant geopolitical ramifications. In January, Taiwanese will vote for a new president. A victory for front runner William Lai Ching-te, seen as pro-independence, is likely to escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The US presidential election in November 2024 carries even more complicated implications. President Joe Biden is widely anticipated to face Donald Trump in a divisive rematch that will exacerbate America’s polarisation. Whatever the election outcome, US-China rivalry is expected to remain tense.

Unlike with the Ukraine crisis, where some Republicans have voiced admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Americans are united on confronting China. Presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy, for instance, proposes to let Russia keep the Ukrainian territory it has occupied if Putin cuts ties with China.

US entrepreneur and presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy raps after talking to Governor Kim Reynolds at the Iowa State Fair, in Des Moines, on August 12. Eminem has asked Ramaswamy to stop using his music on the campaign trail. Photo: AFP

But most countries have a more nuanced approach to China’s rise. Even among US allies like the Philippines and South Korea, opposition parties are advocating alternative strategies for engaging with Beijing. Should Marcos Jnr and Yoon’s tilt to the US lead to potential conflict with China, citizens of both countries could yet opt for a more balanced approach through the ballot box.

Similarly, in Taiwan, voters can choose candidates with a more conciliatory posture towards Beijing. But such a choice is not readily available to American voters.

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The US body polity has become ensnared in groupthink, sidelining alternative perspectives on China. This highlights a troubling reality regarding Washington’s increasingly hardline response to Beijing, and underscores a fundamental flaw in America’s democratic system – a failure to foster opposing viewpoints to ensure checks and balances in crafting strategies for something as consequential as China’s re-emergence.

Just as the public was misled about the Iraq war, Americans, it seems, are once more marching in lockstep towards another potentially misguided conflict, this time with China, the purported existential threat.

At the Asia-Pacific Roundtable, while reaffirming Malaysia’s neutrality, Anwar also articulated a shared desire for a new global order to better represent non-Western world values and interests. The Malaysian leader’s aspiration struck a chord with many across the Global South.

The recently concluded Brics summit in South Africa exemplified this aspiration. Positioned as a counterbalance to the G7, this bloc, marked by its expanding membership, has conveyed a resounding message: countries in the developing world seek an economic order that is no longer dominated by the West.

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In May 2022, during a speech outlining the Biden administration’s approach to China, Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted that China was the only country with the intent and capability to reshape the US-led international order. The emergence of Brics is challenging this assessment. Countries across the Global South are as keen to reshape the system.

To be sure, most Brics members remain committed to the non-alignment principle, and are sidestepping the democracy vs autocracy dichotomy. The Brics grouping’s aim is to push for a multipolar world where no single superpower or bloc dominates.

Michael Pillsbury, author of The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, posited that the US-China rivalry is a defining feature of the 21st century. But Brics’ growing clout suggests it may well be the shifting of the world’s geoeconomic and geopolitical centre from the Global North to the Global South that defines the future world order.

Unless this reality is acknowledged, an America overly preoccupied with China may have difficulty managing the reconfiguration of power from the US-led international system to a more inclusive one.

Meanwhile, America could face a separate power transition crisis at home. At its core are the indictments against former president Trump, encompassing allegations of election interference. A conviction for Trump could tear the country further apart. Conversely, an acquittal could embolden Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

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A fundamental tenet of democracy is the peaceful transfer of power, with the ballot box serving as the primary mechanism to resolve conflict. But some Americans have lost faith in the democratic process. It is uncertain whether the coming election can bridge the deep divisions and facilitate national healing.

The 2024 US election is critical, with the fate of the republic hanging in the balance as bitter partisanship continues to fracture a once-great democracy. At the same time, America’s tunnel vision with regard to China and misreading of the aspirations of developing countries are pushing the realignment of geopolitics towards open conflict.

Nations in the Global South must remain resolute in pursuing collaboration over confrontation, and strive towards a peaceful transition of the Western-centred world order towards a more representative one.

Peter T.C. Chang is deputy director of the Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia