How South China Sea rows thwart Philippine hopes to improve ties with China

Filipino presidents tried to improve ties with China throughout 20th century, but time and again, domestic scandals and territorial disputes got in the way
Clashes between Filipino, Chinese vessels in South China Sea have renewed public anger towards Beijing, making diplomatic efforts more risky and more necessary

Richard Heydarian

Published: 1:30am, 16 Aug 2023

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“Stop bullying us … just because we are a small country, you think you can do this to us. We need mutual respect,” Philippine Senator Christopher “Bong” Go said last week amid rising tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

The Philippine Coast Guard have accused Chinese vessels of using water cannons to impede a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, a contested area precariously occupied by a Philippine marine detachment aboard a grounded ship. For its part, China has demanded the Philippines vacate the area where it claims “indisputable sovereignty”.

The incident provoked an uproar in Manila, where a host of prominent figures and top administration allies have called on President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr to take more decisive action against China. Senator Go’s tough statements, which clearly had a domestic audience in mind, is a sign of the rapid deterioration in Philippine-China relations in recent months.

As a special aide to former president Rodrigo Duterte, Go was at the centre of years-long efforts to build a special relationship with Beijing. He even helped arrange Duterte’s recent trip to China to help ease tensions. “During the six years of Duterte presidency, we gave you a load of respect. Our administration was good to you,” Go said, lamenting the lack of reciprocity from Beijing.

The increasingly critical statements from even top Duterte allies who have consistently advocated for warm ties with China over Western powers underscores the political fallout of the maritime spats.

Short of a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough, Marcos is likely to be forced to further align with Washington by granting maximum access to the Pentagon to a variety of prized Philippine facilities.

02:13

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

Historically, Filipino presidents have tried to pursue warmer ties with China. This was partly because of Beijing’s growing economic importance as a top trading partner as well as a deepening desire among Filipino leaders to diversify Philippine foreign policy beyond traditional Western allies.

Fed up with an overbearing George W. Bush administration, then Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo pursued a “golden age” of bilateral relations with China. But her outreach to Beijing was ultimately torpedoed by corruption scandals engulfing Chinese-backed projects as well as a controversial joint energy exploration deal in the South China Sea which the Philippine Supreme Court recently ruled was unconstitutional.

All her successors tried to keep bilateral ties with China on an even keel, at least initially. The reformist Benigno Aquino skipped the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony for Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo to avoid worsening diplomatic tensions. But the naval stand-off with China over the Scarborough Shoal crisis less than two years later pushed Aquino towards a more confrontational stance, which culminated in new defence cooperation with the United States as well as an international arbitration case against China.

His successor, Rodrigo Duterte, was even more determined to pursue warm ties with China. Not only did he distance himself from the arbitration case against China, he tried to downgrade military cooperation with the US.

Activists burn paper Chinese flags during a protest against the sinking of a fishing boat by a Chinese vessel at the Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila on June 21, 2019. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said the sinking in the West Philippine Sea was a maritime incident and that deployment of naval ships was not needed. Photo: EPA-EFE

Yet it was another maritime incident, namely the sinking of a Philippine fishing boat by a Chinese militia vessel in Reed Bank, which galvanised public opposition to Duterte’s Beijing-friendly foreign policy. China’s net trust rating dipped to minus 24 per cent following the incident, forcing Duterte to adopt an increasingly tougher stance on the South China Sea.

Similar to his predecessors, Marcos tried to shift ties with China “to a higher gear” and pursue a “new golden era” of bilateral relations. But having failed to secure any major concessions during his state visit to Beijing earlier this year, he began doubling down on strategic ties with traditional allies.

Likely in response to Marcos’ decision to expand defence ties with the US under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, China began tightening the noose in the South China Sea. In recent months, Philippine authorities have accused Chinese vessels of directing a military-grade laser towards Philippine Coast Guard crew, “swarming” the Philippine-controlled Iroquois Reef in the Spratly Islands and, most recently, firing water cannons at a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal.

As a result, Marcos is coming under growing pressure to adopt a more confrontational policy, with most Filipinos demanding closer defence cooperation with allies to keep China at bay. In the Philippine Senate, there are calls for taking the South China Sea disputes to international bodies, including lobbying for a United Nations General Assembly resolution.

01:50

Chinese military ship accused of shining laser light at Philippine coastguard vessel

After filing hundreds of diplomatic protests, Manila might eventually even consider recalling its ambassador to Beijing or suspend bilateral dialogue mechanisms to express its discontent. Marcos also has the option of embracing a more aggressive approach, including seeking US assistance to fortify Philippine facilities in places such as the Second Thomas Shoal. After all, Washington has made it clear that any attack on Philippine forces could activate mutual defence treaty obligations.

In short, the ongoing brinkmanship could eventually push bilateral relations to a point of no return, further plunging the Philippines into the vortex of US-China rivalry. To avert a downward spiral, Manila and Beijing should actively lower tensions, prevent collisions between their vessels and pursue a mutually acceptable compromise which dissuades either side from unilaterally altering the status quo.

Blocking Philippine resupply missions and basic maintenance activities only reinforces the Philippines’ anger against China’s own large-scale island building activities in contested areas.

Manila can try reassuring Beijing its defence cooperation with the US won’t pose a threat to China but instead enhance the Philippines’ own defensive capabilities. Pursuing a mutually acceptable compromise will be an uphill struggle, but there is no better alternative to robust diplomacy.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise