As warming ties with the Philippines show, the EU is quietly building a new golden age with Asean

Far from a routine exchange of diplomatic niceties, recent developments in EU-Philippine relations reflect a broader geopolitical trend in Asean amid US-China jostling
The EU’s constructive diplomacy has won Southeast Asian nations over, as economic synergies build trust and European strategic autonomy sits well with Asean neutrality

Richard Heydarian

Published: 8:15am, 8 Aug 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

“Security in Europe and security in the Indo-Pacific is indivisible,” said Ursula von der Leyen during the first visit by a European Commission president to the Philippines, emphasising how Brussels is “ready to strengthen the cooperation with the Philippines on maritime security” as South China Sea tensions grow.

Other than taking a jab at Beijing, von der Leyen also underscored her commitment to pursuing a more comprehensive partnership with the Philippines. Accordingly, she unveiled economic grants and revived negotiations for a free-trade agreement.

Eager to diversify their strategic relations, Southeast Asian nations such as the Philippines have warmly welcomed growing engagement with the EU. Unwilling to be dragged into a superpower conflict, Southeast Asian states broadly see the EU as a reliable third force.

Brussels is also expanding its strategic footprint in the Indo-Pacific to maximise economic opportunities and mitigate a Sino-American cold war in the world’s most consequential region.

Philippine-EU relations have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past decade. Under the reformist Benigno Aquino III administration, relations reached an apogee. Eager to tap European markets, the Aquino administration oversaw the lifting of bans on Philippine carriers and held off restrictions on Philippine fisheries’ exports.

On a 2014 trip to Brussels, Aquino said there was “no better time for us to build [a] strategically rounded partnership”, as trade and investment ties boomed. As a fellow democratic nation and a “new tiger” economy, the Philippines was also emerging as an attractive partner for Brussels.

But the election of authoritarian populist Rodrigo Duterte torpedoed relations. As president of the Philippines, Duterte lambasted Brussels and his administration accused the EU of undue interference. As European criticism of his human rights record grew, Duterte threatened to expel all EU ambassadors.

Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte gestures as he arrives to visit the Bureau of Jail Management and Penology on the outskirts of Manila on October 18, 2017. Photo: AP

But the election of Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has injected new life into Philippine-EU relations. The British-educated Philippine president has visited Europe several times, including for the Asean-EU summit in Brussels, World Economic Forum in Switzerland and coronation of King Charles III in London.

He has also hosted many high-level Western officials, including US Vice-President Kamala Harris, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

During her visit to Malacañang Palace, von der Leyen underscored her commitment to accelerating “a new era of cooperation” as part of a broader effort aimed at jointly “strengthening our democracies” and preserving a “rules-based international order”.

Philippines’ President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr receives European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the presidential palace on July 31. Photo: European Commission/dpa

On his part, Marcos hailed their “shared values of democracy” and emphasised his “desire to bring our bilateral relationship to greater heights”. Far from a routine exchange of diplomatic niceties, the warming of EU-Philippine strategic ties reflects a broader geopolitical trend in the region.

First, there is an emerging economic symbiosis between the EU and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Asean is the EU’s third-largest partner outside Europe after China and the United States, with bilateral trade reaching €271.8 billion (US$300 billion) last year.

Is China’s slice of export pie melting as geopolitical uncertainties heat up?

Similarly, the EU is Asean’s third-largest trading partner, accounting for a tenth of Southeast Asia’s trade. The picture is even more impressive on the investment front: the EU is Asean’s second-largest source of foreign direct investment with €350.1 billion in 2020.

In recent years, the EU has finalised free trade agreements with two Asean members, Vietnam and Singapore, which have emerged as the new global economic stars. In particular, Brussels called its trade pact with Hanoi “the most ambitious free trade deal between the EU and an emerging economy to date”. The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand are the next candidates.

09:10

Between two superpowers: Indonesia’s position in the US-China rivalry

With growing economic interdependence came greater strategic trust. The upshot is a shared appetite for deeper security partnership. In 2019, the EU signed a special defence pact with Vietnam, allowing the communist nation to participate in Europe’s crisis management operations as a special partner.

This is expected to serve as a springboard for tighter military cooperation, especially as Hanoi gradually distances itself from its long-time arms supplier, Russia.

During her Manila trip, von der Leyen also offered security help to the Philippines, with a focus on strengthening its coastguard capabilities. The key European powers of France, Sweden, Spain and Germany, meanwhile, have been pursuing increased defence cooperation with the Philippines. The EU is also courting closer defence ties with Indonesia, Asean’s de facto leader.

02:43

China and Asean renew agreement to develop code of conduct for South China Sea

Concerns over China’s increasing assertiveness in regional waters are a key driver of EU-Asean relations. But neither the EU nor Asean are in the mood to fully align with the US, which has ramped up sanctions and naval countermeasures against China.

This brings us to the final important factor: Europe’s quest for strategic autonomy via playing a greater role in the Indo-Pacific on its terms. Based on its 2014 Maritime Security Strategy, 2016 Global Strategy and 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels has committed itself to safeguarding a rules-based international order, including in the South China Sea.

How the Wagner revolt set back Macron’s vision of an autonomous Europe

But as French President Emmanuel Macron has made clear, the EU doesn’t want to play second fiddle to Washington, especially when dealing with China. After all, key European nations, especially Germany, are far more invested in expanding economic and strategic cooperation with the Asian powerhouse.

The EU’s constructive diplomacy has won Asean over. As a survey by a Singapore-based think tank shows, Southeast Asian policy elites view the EU as their top preferred “third party” partner, way ahead of Japan or India, amid growing concerns over the risks of Sino-American conflict in the region.

Steadily yet quietly, the EU is building a new golden age with Asean on their shared strategic interests and outlook.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise