How the Wagner revolt set back Macron’s vision of a strategically autonomous Europe
- In a recent interview, the French president talked up the need for Europe to take a more independent approach to global issues
- However, the Wagner mutiny in Russia has amplified the message that aligning with the US and standing firmly behind Ukraine is crucial
“For me, it’s very important to have a much more autonomous Europe and European Union. Why? Because it’s useful for the global order. I think it’s useful even for the US. It’s useful to have a more powerful Europe being in capacity to fix conflicts at its border,” Macron told CNN in Paris last week.
This cluster of leaders, while still small, offers the continent a fresh direction – embracing multipolarity while asserting Europe’s independence in shaping its destiny.
“There is a big risk of a global divide because of the war in Ukraine and the whole dynamic, and this divide is the West against the rest. And this narrative is pushed by some big countries, I would say for several reasons,” warned Macron in the interview.
Europe stands at a critical juncture, forced to forge its own path towards securing peace within its borders and beyond. The need to develop a robust capacity for maintaining regional stability has become clear to European leaders like Macron. By seeking to emancipate themselves from relying too much on any one country, like-minded European leaders are showing a keenness to shore up their strategic sovereignty.
Macron envisions a Europe capable of withstanding any challenge on its own, unaffected by the decisions of a United States that may be going in the opposite direction. In this narrative, the goal is not to isolate Europe or detach it from the global community, but to fortify its autonomy and resilience. Although Macron’s approach is the right one, the timing of his search for support among fellow European colleagues is inopportune.
It has generated a new confidence in Kyiv and European capitals that Putin’s authority is weakening and raised questions about his ability to win the war, but also aroused concern that a too-weak Putin could bring fresh chaos to Europe. “He is clearly losing the war,” said US President Joe Biden. “He is losing the war at home, and he has become a bit of a pariah around the world.”
The episode has served as a catalyst, amplifying the message that aligning with the US and standing firmly behind Ukraine is crucial in the face of shifting geopolitical dynamics. For the US and its allies, it is an opportunity to seize the narrative and harness it to their advantage. They are leveraging the Wagner incident not only to showcase the threats around Putin’s regime but also to invigorate transatlantic cooperation and solidarity and to mobilise greater support for Ukraine’s war effort.
Under such circumstances, Macron may have to stop banging the drum for EU strategic autonomy for a while, at least until Putin can effectively reassert his full authority over Russia. Ironically, a strong Putin would give Macron’s endeavours a boost, reinvigorating his push for strategic autonomy and igniting a surge in multilateralism.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan