Amid Asia’s arms race, US and Chinese militaries must restart dialogue

US-China competition is adding to an already volatile climate in the Asia-Pacific
Military build-ups in the region are heightening the risk of conflict. Given this, the US and China must keep communication channels open

Mariam Shah

Published: 3:00am, 15 Jun 2023

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The Asia-Pacific has long been a hotbed of geopolitical tension and conflict. A complex web of territorial disputes, great-power rivalries, historical grievances and non-traditional security challenges has created an unstable environment.

More than the unresolved disputes involving multiple countries in the South China Sea, it is the competition among major powers, particularly between the United States and China, that is generating instability as they seek to either assert influence or maintain regional dominance.

In the past few years, tensions between the US and China have risen over issues spanning trade, technology and spying allegations. At present, bilateral relations are at an all-time low, creating apprehension about the future of the relationship and what it may mean for the Asia-Pacific.

Military-to-military meetings were suspended by China last August following then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Since then, tensions between the two countries have been exacerbated by the controversy in February surrounding a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon in US airspace.

At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu and his US counterpart Lloyd Austin did not have a meeting but instead gave speeches that were critical of each other’s countries, dashing hopes that the security summit could be an opportunity for the two powers to improve and stabilise relations.

Without naming the US and its allies, Li said some countries were engaging in actions not conducive to stability in the region. This remark came soon after a near-collision between a Chinese warship and a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait.

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Li also warned against the establishment of Nato-like military alliances in the region, and accused a great power of meddling in China’s internal affairs by supporting Taiwan militarily and conducting high-level visits to the island.

While countries including the United States recognise that Taiwan is part of China, the US has been hollowing out the one-China principle with its actions.

Furthermore, this is related to another destabilising factor in the region: an arms race. Amid military build-ups across the Asia-Pacific, countries have been conducting joint military exercises. In recent years, even European countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany and France have made their military presence felt in the South China Sea, by deploying naval vessels to the region.

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Worse, Aukus was announced in 2021 as a trilateral security alliance under which the UK and the US would help Australia develop nuclear-powered submarines. This announcement has undoubtedly added to regional uncertainties, while intensifying US-China military rivalry.

This month, Li Song, China’s permanent representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, criticised the Aukus deal. At an IAEA meeting, he said the agreement involved the transfer of weapons-grade highly enriched uranium, thus undermining the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

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Meanwhile, Nato’s planned new office in Japan is a matter of concern not only to China, but also to other countries, as it would add to the apprehension in the region.

As a French official pointed out, “Nato [stands for] North Atlantic, and both article V and article VI [in its statutes] clearly limit the scope to North Atlantic.” But it is no secret that Nato is “an extension of the US military machine”, to quote Post columnist Alex Lo, who pointed out that the current Nato chief, Jens Stoltenberg, often uses the same narrative against China and Russia that the US propagates.

Certainly, the struggle for dominance in the region has put pressure on the smaller countries to side with either China or the United States. However, many Asian nations are actively pursuing stability and urging both Beijing and Washington to manage their differences better. A further deterioration in US-China relations would cause geostrategic instability.

At the Shangri-La Dialogue, Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen expressed profound concern over the decline in exchanges between the US and Chinese military establishments, as well as the potentially disastrous consequences for the region.

He emphasised that Singapore and other Association of Southeast Asian Nations members “are not disinterested bystanders”, with regard to worsening US-China relations. He went as far as to say, “For Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region, the US–China relationship is central to stability.”

Currently, the military operations of the US near China’s shores contribute to an escalation in conflict risk, on top of the existing volatility in the region. With the growing militarisation, the presence of US military assets in the region and Nato’s proposed expansion, it is no wonder that China feels encircled.

In the militarisation across the region, there are echoes of the Cold War with its bloc politics. Peaceful coexistence and stability in the Asia-Pacific is becoming a distant dream.

The region is increasingly characterised by major-power competition, notably that between the United States and China. The arms race and military build-ups in the region could escalate tensions and heighten the risk of conflict, particularly if trust and communication channels are lacking.

Thus, there is an urgent need for the US and China to resume security dialogue and crisis communication; diplomatic channels must remain open and active to avoid confrontation. But most importantly, both the United States and China must demonstrate a willingness to moderate their positions and adopt a more conciliatory approach to resolving their differences.

Mariam Shah is a PhD scholar in peace and conflict studies