Biggest threat to humanity isn’t AI but US-China hostility leading to war
Far from cooperating to address AI risks, the US and China are racing to weaponise the tech, making the prospect of a catastrophic world war a clear and present danger
Artificial intelligence (AI) could evolve into an existential threat to human civilisation. But it is the risk of a US-China war that poses the most immediate danger to humankind. As we did 75 years ago when formulating the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the global community must work together, to pull the 21st century back from the brink of an AI-assisted, but human-instigated, catastrophic world war.
In the letter calling for a pause in AI development, technological leaders warned that AI developers are “locked in an out-of-control race to develop and deploy ever more powerful digital minds that no one – not even their creators – can understand, predict or reliably control”. But the plea for a slowdown to deal with the “unknowable” risks that AI could pose to humanity is not working.
Elon Musk’s participation in the call for a moratorium, for example, has been criticised as a ploy by the billionaire to keep up with competitors. Despite acknowledging the risks, tech giants are unlikely to prioritise public welfare over corporate gains unless forced to do so. Last month, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, appealed to a US Senate subcommittee for the technology to be regulated.
Yet, historically, US lawmakers have been hesitant to regulate tech, concerned it could stifle innovation. And it remains unclear how Congress would proceed to oversee AI development. Meanwhile, the European Union and China have established regulatory frameworks to govern AI applications, albeit with different guardrails and varying rules. Experts, however, warn that an international norm is needed to mitigate the transnational risks posed by AI.
But, with the potential ban of TikTok in America and the deep mistrust between Washington and Beijing, the likelihood of forging a cooperative response seems remote. As with the environmental crisis, the tense geopolitical rivalry will impede the global community’s ability to collectively address the challenges posed by AI.
Despite talk of “de-risking”, the Biden administration is doubling down on restricting China’s access to advanced US technology. In response, President Xi Jinping has pledged to establish China as a self-reliant technological giant. The recent emergence of Chinese carmakers as leading players in the electric vehicle industry exemplifies the nation’s resolute determination.
However, it is artificial intelligence that plays a central role in the US-China battle for technological superiority and this competition has expanded into the military domain, where both sides are using automation. In a breakthrough development, China conducted tests involving AI integration within its satellite system.
Recently, retired US army general Richard Clarke warned that the future of warfare was in autonomous systems, enabled by AI, and that such wars would be won and lost in space and cyberspace.
Herein lies the stark reality: locked into an increasingly tense rivalry for global dominance, the US and China are racing to weaponise AI, with neither showing a willingness to pause to fully address the associated risks.
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Is China’s technology falling behind in the race for its own ChatGPT?
Is China’s technology falling behind in the race for its own ChatGPT?
In November, the United Nations will commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Under Eleanor Roosevelt’s leadership, the declaration’s drafting commission was diversely represented, notably including Charles Malik and Peng-Chun Chang.
The declaration is an affirmation of the universal rights and inherent dignity of all human beings. Just as importantly, it represents a pivotal moment of moral reckoning and resolution, in the aftermath of World War II, to keep humanity safe from the horrors of another global conflict.
Sadly, the 21st century is teetering on the brink of another world war, with US-China rivalry in danger of stumbling into the Thucydides Trap.
War is not inevitable, however. The prospect of mutually assured destruction (MAD) deterred the US-Soviet Union Cold War from escalating into a hot war. Both Washington and Beijing today also recognise that open hostilities would result in a similar MAD scenario.
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Taiwan residents living within sight of mainland China voice concerns over live-fire drills
Taiwan residents living within sight of mainland China voice concerns over live-fire drills
Yet, the military build-up continues apace across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. The Aukus alliance, for example, has caused consternation among regional countries. Adding to the risk of an accidental conflict is the incorporation of militarised AI, including the automation of nuclear arsenals.
At the recent Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore, upset by US sanctions imposed on him, China’s Defence Minister General Li Shangfu declined an invitation to meet US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin. In response, Austin warned that a lack of communication could lead to an incident which could very quickly spiral out of control.
The drumbeat of war is drowning out the call for a pause in AI development. Geoffrey Hinton, one of the “godfathers of AI”, has warned that, as generative AI’s capacity for self-learning has surpassed earlier expectations, it could soon become uncontrollable and an existential threat to human civilisation.
However, the spectre of a rogue AI annihilating humankind remains in the realms of fiction. The real and present danger is a potentially catastrophic war between the two superpowers, rather than a conflict with a malevolent AI, that could devastate human civilisation.
Without question, we are still the master of our destiny and our own worst enemy. If and when an out-of-control AI threatens our existence, it would surely have been a human who sowed the seeds of our extinction.
In 1948, the United Nations gathered to declare the universal rights of all individuals. Seventy-five years later, more than ever, we need to recapture the ethos underpinning this declaration – that is, to affirm the sanctity of human life and renounce the inhumanity of war.
If the bitter lesson of history is not learned, human enmity, not malevolent AI, could yet seal our fate with another catastrophic world war.
Peter T.C. Chang is deputy director of the Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
