On the US and China, Marcos wants the Philippines to have its cake and eat it too

The Philippine president is trying to achieve a ‘Goldilocks’ level – neither too hot, nor too cold – of military cooperation with the US without unduly provoking Beijing
Fully alienating China, a top trading partner, is not an option, not least because of domestic opposition

Richard Heydarian

Published: 12:30am, 9 May 2023

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“We are facing new challenges. And I can’t think of any better partner to have than you,” said US President Joe Biden in welcoming his Philippine counterpart, Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, to the White House. It was the first visit to Washington by a Philippine president in over a decade, after relations became acrimonious under Marcos’ Beijing-friendly predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, who refused to visit a single Western capital throughout his six years in office.

“Our countries not only share a strong partnership, we share a deep friendship – one that has been enriched by millions of Filipino Americans in the communities all across the United States of America,” Biden added, underscoring the depth of the alliance.

The high-stakes meeting came on the heels of renewed tensions in the South China Sea and Manila’s decision to expand US access to Philippine bases under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

Accordingly, Biden reaffirmed the US’ “ironclad” commitment against shared threats under their Mutual Defence Treaty. In turn, Marcos emphasised how “it is only natural” to expand cooperation with the Philippines’ sole defence treaty partner. Upon closer examination, however, Marcos was largely tentative in his statements about regional security issues.

Throughout his trip, Marcos emphasised the centrality of trade and investment to his foreign policy agenda. He seems determined not to fully align with the US in a new cold war against China, but instead explore a “Goldilocks” level of military cooperation which protects Philippine security interests without unduly provoking the Asian superpower.

Washington has launched a charm offensive aimed at Marcos, the namesake son of the former Philippine strongman who ruled with an iron fist throughout the 1970s and early 1980s. Biden was among the first to congratulate the Philippine leader for his emphatic election victory last year.

Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos, his wife Imelda and son Ferdinand Marcos Jnr appearing before college students undergoing a two-year compulsory military training in Manila on November 15, 1985. Photo: AFP

A few weeks later, Washington dispatched US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman to Manila for a very important mission, namely, reassuring the new Philippine president of his sovereign immunity from pending US court cases against the Marcos family over charges of corruption and human rights violations during their father’s rule.

Three cabinet-level US officials have visited Manila since then – Secretary of State Antony Blinken last August, Vice-President Kamala Harris last November, and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin in February.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last year, Biden made his intentions crystal clear in a meeting with Marcos. “We can do a lot together. I’m desperately interested in making sure we do,” he said, underscoring Washington’s determination to enlist Manila’s support in its intensifying rivalry with Beijing.

The White House’s soft-pedalling on the Philippines’ human rights record has provoked a backlash among civil society groups, including Biden’s fellow Democrats. But geopolitical exigencies seem to be the top priority for the Biden administration.

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While relishing Biden’s strategic embrace, Marcos has demurred from a full alignment with Washington. In welcoming expanded military cooperation under the EDCA, the Philippine president seems intent on enhancing Philippine defence capabilities without needlessly provoking China, a top trading partner.

A combination of three factors guide Manila’s approach to its alliance with the US. To begin with, the exact parameters of the EDCA seem to remain under intense negotiation. Following the Biden-Marcos meeting in the White House, the two countries agreed to institute “bilateral defence guidelines” to upgrade their alliance and jointly enhance the Philippines’ military modernisation.

Crucially, however, the two sides have yet to agree on the exact number of troops and the nature of weapons systems to be stationed in Philippine facilities under the EDCA. Nor do there appear to be concrete agreements on how EDCA facilities can be used by US troops in regional contingencies.

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Marcos has emphasised that the Pentagon will not use Philippine facilities as a staging post for offensive action against China. It’s worth noting that he has remained adamant on this despite the Philippine armed forces’ penchant for maximal cooperation with the US.

For Marcos, the US should instead help to modernise the Philippines’ deterrence capabilities without dragging it into a conflict with China. This brings us to the second key factor, namely Marcos’ abiding belief that fully alienating Beijing is not an option. China’s support represents a major economic prize for the Philippines, which is in desperate need of massive infrastructure investment.

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Although the US is set to dispatch a first-of-its-kind trade mission to the Philippines to boost economic ties, the Biden administration has yet to offer any concrete deal. Amid a severely protectionist mood at home, the White House has not even been able to pull off a digital free trade initiative nor is it in a position to negotiate a new free trade deal: its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework remains a broadly embryonic platform devoid of substance.

Aside from hopes of attracting big-ticket Chinese investments, Marcos is also determined to avoid a full-scale collision with Beijing-friendly elements at home, including Duterte and his daughter Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte, and Senator Maria Imelda Marcos, the president’s sister. Already, the EDCA faces widespread resistance in provinces such as Cagayan, where Chinese investments are a major source of local government revenue.

Cautious in temperament and shrewd in geopolitics, Marcos, like his late father, is trying to have his cake and eat it, with expanded US security cooperation and fruitful Chinese economic ties. Whether he can pull off a Goldilocks level of strategic cooperation with the US without provoking China remains to be seen. It will be an extremely delicate balancing act.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of “Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific”, and the forthcoming “Duterte’s Rise”