Why is Australia focusing on defence and a vague China ‘threat’ when relations are warming?
By basing its defence overhaul on a perceived threat, Canberra leaves too many questions hanging, including how this will deter or even contain China’s ambitions
With Australia’s growth slowing and relations with China thawing, it might be wiser to focus on economic cooperation and peaceful overtures instead
The China “threat” has long been trumpeted in Australia, yet there have been few details about what the threat actually consists of. The government’s latest defence strategic review now calls for an overhaul to arm its forces with long-range capabilities, hyping up an undefined China “threat” to justify the expenditure.
The concepts used to garner public support look similar to American tactics deployed during the “war on terror” in Afghanistan – where the strategy was unclear, the goals never defined, but the “threat” was always active and elusive. As Australia’s defence review states, there is “at present only a remote possibility of any power contemplating an invasion of our continent”.
Despite this, Canberra points to China’s military build-up as contesting the global order, failing to mention it is doing so within its own territory. In contrast, Australia’s shift in defence policy is aimed at defending jurisdictions beyond its immediate borders by increasing the range of its missiles to hit targets 500km away or further, from the current 40km.
This defence review is not Australia’s first attempt to shift its military posturing. A similar report in 2020 outlined a plan that included a A$270 billion (US$180 billion) shake-up of the defence forces. For China, Australia is not a point of contention. Still, policymakers in Canberra are trying very hard to make it so, despite seeking a thaw to return relations to how they were before 2020.
Australia’s economic growth is expected to slow this year, and provisions for the project will come from either by halting or limiting other defence projects in order to procure new off-the-shelf solutions.
The latest defence review acknowledges that two years after the government established its Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) Enterprise, to build its own guided missiles, the initiative still “lacks available financial resources over this decade and lacks the required workforce. It is yet to produce a strategy.” There is also a “lack of clarity around roles and responsibilities”.
A high-mobility artillery rocket system, or HIMAR, produced by Lockheed Martin, is fired from a truck during combat training in the high desert of the Yakima Training Centre in Washington in 2011. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies are strategic partners in Australia’s Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance Enterprise. Photo: AP
Still, the government clearly intends to invest in long-range capabilities. It recently bought 20 Lockheed Martin high-mobility artillery rocket systems for an estimated US$385 million, is preparing to host US B-52 bombers as part of a A$1 billion facility upgrade, and will spend up to A$368 billion on nuclear-powered submarines over the next few decades to deter China.
But policymakers have yet to acknowledge or inform the public of the measures they will have to take to protect the country from retaliatory strikes if it engages with China. Any military deployment is bound to turn all regions, including capital cities, into legitimate targets.
Brandishing alarming ideas in an official document without providing robust solutions only heightens tensions in the Indo-Pacific. Unlike Australia’s Aukus alliance with the United States and Britain, where the purpose and concept are clearly defined, Australia’s defence review leaves many questions unanswered. For example, there is no mention of the specific hostile assets that require a military response.
What actual threats, as opposed to perceived threats, are causing Australia to change from a defensive force to one with a more forward outlook? What alternative strategies have been considered, and what is the viability of each of those options? The doctrine also does not outline how the shift in strategy will uphold US interests in the region, deter or even contain China’s ambitions – the reason for Australia’s forward posturing.
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Australia unveils biggest defence reform in decades, prioritising long-range missiles
Australia unveils biggest defence reform in decades, prioritising long-range missiles
Australia has meticulously played up the China threat in two defence reviews, exhibiting the same tone despite a change in government, urgently calling for off-the-shelf solutions as China continues to upgrade and expand its submarine fleet.
Yet the main beneficiary of this arms race is the US, as Australia does not have the infrastructure, workforce or technology to rapidly deploy indigenous solutions. America’s Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin, as well as Norway’s Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace, are set to profit while local defence companies are braced for significant cuts as funding is diverted towards procuring missiles. This will have ripple effects on companies connected to the domestic defence industry.
This is a year in which Australia’s economic relations with China are on the rebound. West Australia Premier Mark McGowan recently led a business delegation to China to take part in a strategic dialogue with Chinese business delegates, while a 15-strong industry delegation has visited the industrial and commercial hubs of Hong Kong, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Tsinghua.
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Chinese, Australian foreign ministers meet in Beijing in sign of relationship thaw
Chinese, Australian foreign ministers meet in Beijing in sign of relationship thaw
It is essential to look at the bigger picture of economic cooperation and peaceful overtures which previously defined Australia’s relations with China, rather than resort to sabre-rattling.
War-mongering at the behest of a third party only increases anxieties and distrust in a region that has avoided conflict by using diplomacy to overcome misunderstandings.
The recommendations from Australia’s latest review will be used to formulate its national defence strategy, set to be released next year. By then, Australia will have nothing to show except elaborate theories and spreading public fear.
China will continue to manufacture and expand its defence capacity in the Indo-Pacific, while Australia is left to play catch-up, seeking ways to finance its military upgrade while fending off economic pressures, especially if the world sinks into a recession.
Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia
