Why Britain joining the CPTPP is clearly not about the economy
- ‘Global Britain’ needs new friends and trading partners as the economic harm from Brexit becomes clear
- The Asia-Pacific bloc, by holding Britain’s feet to the fire, can burnish its liberal credentials and define membership barriers that an unreformed China would find impossible to surmount
Britain’s Department for International Trade has said its membership will “boost the CPTPP’s economic clout” and put Britain “at the heart of a dynamic group of countries, as the world economy increasingly centres on the Pacific region”.
Economic modelling by the UK Department for International Trade back in 2021 predicted that joining the CPTPP would increase exports by £1.7 billon (US$2.07 billion) and imports by £1.6 billion, with most of the import increase coming at the expense of the UK farm sector and food processing, and export gains for the motor industry and beverages.
Whether such predictions prove accurate, they are chicken feed compared with the United Kingdom’s £559 billion trade with the EU in 2021, and the Brexit losses estimated at around £100 billion a year. This deal is not about the economy, stupid.
For CPTPP members, Britain’s membership is also clearly not about the economy. But that does not make it insignificant. First, and obviously, it projects the grouping as a significant global player, rather than a regionally focused bloc.
With a CPTPP grown so large, how could the United States plausibly remain outside? But how, also, could it comfortably join alongside China, the very economy the TPP was conceived to block?
This lends particular significance to Britain’s membership negotiations, and their importance as a template for other applicants. The CPTPP distinguishes itself as a “high quality” agreement that includes services, digital trade, labour, the environment and regulation of trade and investment.
What is the CPTPP and why is China eager to join?
By holding Britain’s feet firmly to the fire, CPTPP’s members not only burnish their “high quality” credentials, but define membership barriers that an unreformed China would find impossible to surmount.
Senior CPTPP officials meet in Auckland in a month, and a final deal might just be cut then. More cautious pundits are talking about a deal by the time of the ministerial-level CPTPP Commission meeting in July.
For the impatient Sunak government, my only advice is that they would be wise to beware what they wish for: membership of this dynamic Asian grouping might expose Global Britain to some competitive forces that have not been anticipated, and may not be welcome.
David Dodwell is CEO of the trade policy and international relations consultancy Strategic Access, focused on developments and challenges facing the Asia-Pacific over the past four decades