Asean wants no part in US-China rivalry or an unjust war over Taiwan

Southeast Asia sees China as a challenge but not an existential threat like the US does. And war over Taiwan would be misguided, unjust and catastrophic
US efforts to contain China risk embroiling the world in war. Asean and other like-minded democracies must continue to pursue peace

Peter T. C. Chang

Published: 3:30am, 18 Mar 2023

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Asean supports a free world but it is not taking sides in the US-China rivalry because it could lead to an unjust and catastrophic war, misguidedly waged in the name of liberal democracy.

The US policy of “strategic ambiguity” has for decades facilitated development on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, and Beijing is unlikely to seek reunification by force, unless it is provoked by Taipei’s moves towards independence.

But, from Washington’s perspective, the relative stability of the past few decades has disproportionately benefited China, eroding America’s global dominance and even possibly posing a threat to US sovereignty. So China, the thinking goes, has to be contained before it’s too late.

While some US Republicans have expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to have no sympathisers in Washington. As shown by the recent “spy balloon” incident, a feverish anti-China phobia is gripping the United States.

The groupthink on China has led to a reckless one-upmanship between the Republicans and Democrats to out-hawk each other on China. Thus, the campaign to contain China is pushing their already tense rivalry into ever more dangerous territory.

With US General Mike Minihan warning of a possible military conflict with China by 2025, talk of war is becoming more prevalent. The groundwork is being laid to prepare the American public for war with China.

According to the just war theory, war can be justified when all other options have been exhausted and there is a reasonable probability of success; in other words, the potential benefits must outweigh the harm caused.

By most accounts, war over Taiwan does not qualify as a last resort, and there would be no clear winners. Additionally, it risks escalating into a wider conflict with overwhelming costs. Given the devastation already caused by the Ukraine crisis, a war over Taiwan would have catastrophic global consequences.

This is the main reason Asean is not taking sides in the US-China rivalry: the Association of Southeast Asian Nations wants to avoid becoming complicit in a morally unjustifiable war.

Most countries in Southeast Asia are democracies, and while China presents challenges, such as territorial disputes in the South China Sea, it is not seen as an existential threat. These challenges should be managed diplomatically.

Contrary to the “end of history” hypothesis, Southeast Asia’s pluralistic world view holds that liberal democracy is not the only way to achieve good governance. Just as the world is inevitably multireligious, the ideological landscape should also be diverse.

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No one religion or ideology has a monopoly of virtue and few are inherently evil. The responsibility lies with both democracies and non-democracies alike to strive towards their ideals.

America’s democracy is experiencing a crisis. The rise of authoritarian sentiments, attempts to overturn election results and the spread of conspiracy theories have cast doubt on the effectiveness of the US system.

In addition, the stagnation of working-class living standards and the polarising cultural wars over issues like race, abortion and gender identity are tearing the country apart. These challenges represent a significant setback for America’s soft power and global leadership.

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Thus, America is waging a two-front war to defend liberal democracy: domestically and internationally. Restoring its democracy should be Washington’s top priority, as a strong and exemplary American leadership is seen as crucial to preserving the free world.

Relentless US efforts to contain China run the risk of a catastrophic war, which is unlikely to make the world or America safer.

The most acute threat to US democracy comes from within the country. Founded on the enlightenment ideals of liberty and equality, America is fracturing along racial, ideological and religious fault lines. Christian nationalism wants to return the US to its Christian roots, while the far right and left vow to fight to the end to preserve their versions of America. Not since the civil war has the republic been at greater risk of open, armed conflict.

The fissures cutting across the US sociopolitical landscape are deeply rooted in American soil. They did not originate from China and are unlikely to disappear even if China is contained.

03:13

US intelligence chief calls China the ‘leading and most consequential threat’ to the US

Sadly, the baneful American ethno-religious impulses are also felt abroad, particularly in the vilification of China. A former US state department official, in framing China’s rise as a peril, noted that it was a non-Caucasian civilisation. In the Christian nationalist grand narrative, the China threat is often placed within a world view of an epic battle between good and evil.

Another principle of the just war theory is that war must be waged for a justifiable cause. To invoke war in the name of race and religion does not constitute just cause. The US and its allies have placed themselves on a war footing, not so much to defend liberty and equality but to preserve America’s ethno-religious hegemony.

The 21st century faces a looming crisis. The world is in danger of becoming embroiled in an unjust war that would not only be catastrophic but waged on the false premises of defending liberal democratic values. Asean and other like-minded democracies must continue to make the case for peace and help pull humankind back from the brink of disaster.

Peter T.C. Chang is deputy director of the Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia