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Opinion
Gabriela Bernal
Gabriela Bernal
As Kim Jong-un fires off more missiles and threats, South Korea’s hardline strategy is failing
- Several North Korean missiles have been fired in response to US-South Korea drills as Pyongyang warns of war provocations, and talk in Seoul turns to nuclear arms
- Rather than fanning the flames, the Yoon administration should focus on balanced diplomacy, dialogue and long-term stability and peace
Tensions are rising again on the Korean peninsula with US-South Korea military drills under way. North Korea has responded by firing missiles before and during the 11-day exercise, raising fears of a direct military confrontation.
It appears that the balanced diplomatic strategy South Korea has long pursued is being increasingly neglected. Given its complex geopolitical position, Seoul has had to strike a fine balance to ensure its long-term stability and security. Under the previous Moon Jae-in government, the country’s long-term diplomatic vision aimed to secure lasting peace through diplomacy, rather than military means.
But the current Yoon Suk-yeol administration has made a 180-degree turn, adopting a hardline approach centred around trilateral cooperation with Japan and the US. This strategy risks putting South Korea in a strictly pro-US bloc with unwanted consequences for its relations with North Korea, China and others.
The drills are the latest manifestation of this approach, aimed at strengthening the bloc’s deterrence to counter the North. But last year’s US-South Korea military exercise resulted in a record number of missile tests and military provocations from North Korea – and this year’s is unlikely to have a positive impact on the security and stability of the peninsula or region.
The exercises kicked off one day after North Korea said it had launched two strategic cruise missiles from a submarine. On the second day of the drills, Pyongyang launched two more short-range ballistic missiles. The launches came after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un emphasised the need “to always stay alert for all sorts of more frantic war preparation moves being committed by the enemy recently”, a likely reference to preparations by Washington and Seoul for their joint drills.
Besides strengthening military cooperation with Washington, Seoul has also worked to repair its relationship with Tokyo. Such efforts were on full display last week, when the Yoon government announced a compensation plan for Korean victims of forced labour during Japan’s colonial era, a plan that many strongly criticised for being hastily concluded without enough regard for the victims’ wishes.
President Yoon also emphasised in his March 1 Independence Movement Day speech that trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan “has become more important than ever to overcome the security crises”, citing both global and North Korea-related security concerns. In contrast, former president Moon’s final March 1 speech last year called on Japan to “squarely face history and be humble before it”.
By choosing an all-in approach with the US and Japan, South Korea risks alienating important neighbours and jeopardising its role as a potential mediator for diplomacy and peace, not just on the Korean peninsula but in the region. Moon was keenly aware of the need for cooperation with both China and the US to end the Korean war and build lasting peace on the peninsula, and he tried to strike a careful balance in his diplomacy with major powers.
While many have criticised his failure to achieve his goals with the North, it is worth remembering that, despite the many obstacles and tense geopolitical circumstances, his administration prevented a dangerous military confrontation with Pyongyang, helped improve US-North Korea relations and resumed high-level negotiations and direct exchanges with North Korea.
Yoon, however, seems more likely to start another conflict, given that his decisions and actions are mainly focused on undoing his predecessor’s work, pleasing his conservative support base and short-term wins.
Clearly, Seoul’s approach to North Korea is not working, with the North showing a bolder and more confident stance. Last Sunday, Kim warned that Seoul and Washington’s “war provocations” were quickly reaching a “red line”, calling for the North’s “war deterrent” to be used in a “more effective, powerful and offensive” way.
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North Korea test-launches two missiles from submarine as US-South Korea drills begin
North Korea test-launches two missiles from submarine as US-South Korea drills begin
His sister, Kim Yo-jong, also issued a statement earlier, saying the “military moves” by the South and US “undoubtedly provide the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] with conditions for being forced to do something to cope with them”, and that Seoul and Washington should refrain from behaviour that could further “aggravate” things.
In response, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification called on the North to “stop escalating tensions with its reckless nuclear and missile development and military provocations and to take the right path towards lasting peace on the Korean peninsula while looking after its economy and people’s livelihoods.”
But North Korea is unlikely to “take the right path towards lasting peace” as long as other relevant players, particularly the South and US, say one thing but do another.
North and South Korea remain as divided as ever, 70 years after truce
North and South Korea remain as divided as ever, 70 years after truce
China’s UN ambassador Dai Bing made this clear last month when, in discussing the Korean peninsula, he said: “Certain countries, in particular, should give up their geopolitical manipulation, stop the clamour about war, and refrain from resorting to pressurisation at every turn through military exercises [if they want to] create an appropriate environment for political settlement.”
The war clamour is intensifying, it seems. Besides military drills with the US and North Korean missile tests, another recent example was Seoul mayor Oh Se-hoon’s call last Monday for South Korea to possess nuclear weapons.
Instead of becoming the cause of a potential nuclear domino effect in the region, this South Korean administration should focus on balanced diplomacy, dialogue and long-term stability and peace for the Korean peninsula and the region.
Gabriela Bernal is a North Korea analyst and PhD scholar at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, South Korea
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