Why South Korea must lead efforts to denuclearise the peninsula
- The US’ past attempts to denuclearise the peninsula have been too dependent on ‘sticks’ and a resolution is not the matter of life and death it is to South Korea
- Yoon Suk-yeol must offer Kim a deal which has China’s support and that offers the regime a better chance of survival without nuclear weapons
Only Yoon can resolve the issue, by formulating a viable shared policy involving all stakeholder states. This must include a comprehensive and economically transformative package deal offered in return for the cessation of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s nuclear weapons programme. The deal must provide North Korea with a genuine chance of survival, trading its nuclear weapons for a bright future.
There are four critical reasons the South Korean government must take the lead in devising a shared policy aimed at the denuclearisation of the peninsula.
Second, Yoon’s government should lead the talks as there is a critical difference in the core policy objectives of the US and South Korea.
In addition, the North must pave the way for a bright future with sustained economic development, transforming into a market socialist system, and receiving enough financial resources from the South Korean government to support economic prosperity.
For the US, North Korea is a regional threat, but for South Korea, the issue is one of life and death.
Without South Korea leading the efforts, rather than the US, the chances are slim that China would come on board.
Some conditions will also need to be met to secure Chinese support. Denuclearisation must be accompanied by the realisation of permanent peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. It should not take place in a way that results in the demise of North Korea.
Moreover, North Korea, as a non-nuclear weapon state, must contribute positively to regional peace and stability, and serve as a buffer to counter US military influence on the peninsula.
Fourthly, for the deal to succeed, it must offer North Korea a better chance to survive without nuclear weapons. The Kim regime perceives the nuclear programme as a strategic asset that is essential to its survival for several reasons.
To survive, the regime must be compensated for these attributes. It thus follows that security guarantees, peace treaties and the lifting of sanctions alone will not suffice to ensure North Korea’s survival.
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The only way for North Korea to survive is to secure legitimacy through the achievement of sustained, dynamic and robust economic development, with global economic integration, implementing market-oriented reforms and securing sufficient funds. For North Korea to survive as a non-nuclear state, Pyongyang must lay the foundation for economic modernisation by achieving 10 per cent growth per annum for at least a decade.
For the package deal to ensure the survival of North Korea as a non-nuclear state, it has to be not only transactional, but also transformational, converting a distorted socialist economy to market socialism.
Dr Chan Young Bang is the founder and president of KIMEP University, principal investigator at North Korea Strategic Research Centre, and a former economic adviser to the first president of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev