As Ukraine war drags on, why not give China’s peace plan a chance?
- Suspicious of Beijing’s motives, the West has dismissed the plan for having no actionable solutions
- But with leverage over Moscow and skin in the game, there is no other country better placed to mediate
There are basically two ways that wars end: in an outright victory or with a negotiated settlement. After a year of fighting in Ukraine, there is a growing consensus that neither side can secure a total victory any time soon.
If neither side can prevail, the only way the bloodshed can end is at the negotiating table. Granted, that too seems unlikely – but not impossible.
With no end to the war in sight, the plan deserves proper consideration – if only as a stepping stone to a ceasefire and seven-party peace talks under the UN, to include the five permanent Security Council members, Ukraine and the EU.
There are two main criticisms in the West of Beijing’s proposal. But neither is sufficient to dismiss it out of hand.
The first is that the paper doesn’t offer actionable solutions. Indeed, it is largely a reiteration of principles and leaves crucial issues unaddressed. But it should be taken as a starting point. There is no way China – or any other party – can provide ready-made answers. Specifics must be thrashed out through negotiations between the key players.
China’s refusal to join the campaign against Moscow may not sit well in the West, but it remains the majority stance elsewhere. More importantly, it is precisely this reluctance to intervene that puts Beijing in a unique position to help mediate.
Many are suspicious of Beijing’s motives for stepping in now. There is no doubt China has much to gain if it can help broker an end to the war.
Cynical motivations aside, China remains best-placed to mediate – and the only one with significant leverage over Moscow. Beijing’s skin in the game only raises the chance of success; mediation does not have to be an act of altruism to work.
US President Joe Biden said the idea of China helping to negotiate a peace is “just not rational”. But it seems to me the objection is driven more by emotion and moral outrage.
Beijing’s self-interest and failure to take a stance against Russia do not negate the fact that peace would benefit everyone and let us focus on our other manifold challenges. The West would be cutting off its nose to spite its face if it dismisses a potential path to peace just because it came from China.
Securing a multilateral resolution to the crisis in Ukraine is a long shot. China will have to stick its neck out further than it has ever been willing to, for there to be any chance of success. But there is no country better placed to do so. The West should give it a chance.
Wang Huiyao is the founder of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based non-governmental think tank