South China Morning Post
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US Air Force B-1B bombers (centre), F-22 fighter jets and South Korean Air Force F-35 fighter jets (bottom) fly over South Korea during a joint air drill on January 1. On February 2, North Korea threatened the “toughest reaction” to the US’ expanding joint military exercises with South Korea to counter the North’s growing nuclear weapons ambitions, claiming that the allies were pushing tensions to an “extreme red line”. Photo: South Korean Defence Ministry via AP
Opinion
Gabriela Bernal
Gabriela Bernal

South Korea must reach for diplomacy, not nuclear arms, to defuse tensions with the North

  • Yoon government’s hawkish stance is raising inter-Korea tensions as more South Koreans grow in favour of nuclear arms
  • But this could lead to arms proliferation in the region and growing risk of conflict – when a return to diplomacy is needed instead
Gabriela Bernal
Gabriela Bernal
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Earlier this week, Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited South Korea to discuss common security challenges, including the North Korean issue. The meeting was condemned by the North, which has vowed a strong response to Seoul’s increasingly hardline policies.

During the meeting, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol asked Stoltenberg and the transatlantic security alliance to play more “active roles” to deter North Korea’s “reckless provocations”. The Nato chief invited Yoon to attend the Nato summit in Lithuania scheduled for July, which the president said he would consider.

Past South Korean presidents have tried to maintain a more balanced diplomacy between China and the United States while focusing more on a diplomatic strategy than a military one regarding North Korea. But the Yoon administration is increasingly adopting a hardline stance. Seoul has chosen not only to respond militarily to North Korea’s provocations but also to openly align itself with Washington and Tokyo.

This latest meeting underscored the Yoon government’s hawkish approach towards North Korea.

But so far, Yoon’s strategy has not been conducive to reducing tensions on the Korean peninsula. Since last September, South Korea has reacted militarily to the North’s provocations. The result is that in December, the two Koreas went as far as violating the armistice established after the Korean war by sending drones into each other’s airspace.

In response to Stoltenberg’s Seoul visit, North Korean media published an article on Monday slamming Nato’s “sinister intention” in Asia and warned that South Korea and Japan were moving closer to an “extreme security crisis” by increasing their cooperation with Nato.

Stoltenberg’s visits to South Korea and Japan are “a prelude to confrontation and war as it brings the dark clouds of a ‘new cold war’ to the Asia-Pacific”, it declared.

01:55

Nato chief visits South Korea and Japan to discuss North Korea, Ukraine war, China

Nato chief visits South Korea and Japan to discuss North Korea, Ukraine war, China

Pyongyang sees Nato as being controlled by the United States and its plans to expand military cooperation with states in the region as an excuse to keep China and North Korea in check. The more South Korea deepens its cooperation with Nato, the more likely North Korea is to react aggressively.

While Seoul aligns with Washington and Tokyo, Pyongyang is also deepening ties with old-time allies in Beijing and Moscow – a development that has come under the spotlight with the war in Ukraine.

North Korean media recently bashed the US decision to supply tanks to Ukraine, calling it “an unethical crime aimed at keeping the international situation unstable”. It also warned Washington it could face “a really undesirable result” if it continued to spread “rumours” about North Korea selling arms to Russia.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, has also issued a statement, condemning the US decision as “crossing the red line”. She expressed her country’s full support for Moscow, saying North Korea “will always stand in the same trench with the service personnel and people of Russia”.

The two Koreas appear to be growing increasingly apart with few, or indeed any, options for diplomacy for now.

02:01

Atomic scientists set ‘Doomsday Clock’ closer to midnight than ever before as nuclear threat rises

Atomic scientists set ‘Doomsday Clock’ closer to midnight than ever before as nuclear threat rises
Public opinion in the South has been growing in favour of a national nuclear force. The idea has been floated before but Yoon broke with precedence last month when he publicly mentioned the possibility of South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons.

What had seemed unthinkable is suddenly being discussed seriously. A survey published on Monday found that 76.6 per cent of South Koreans see a need for the country to develop an independent nuclear programme to counter the North Korean threat. Also, 77.6 per cent thought it “impossible” that North Korea would ever denuclearise.

This is a worrying trend. In the short term, it could lead to increased military provocations by the South aimed at the North – provocations that could quickly escalate and result in deaths or even all-out conflict.

After year of escalation, North and South Korea must return to dialogue

In the long term, such thinking could embolden Seoul to adopt an unproductive, hawkish strategy that would leave no room for diplomacy; instead further harming inter-Korean relations, reinforcing the North’s beliefs about the US and the international community, and closing the door on arms control for good. This would especially be the case if Seoul were to acquire nuclear arms capabilities.

Many South Koreans worry that the US “nuclear umbrella” of extended deterrence is no longer enough to protect the country from a possible North Korean attack. But Washington is not supportive of Seoul going down the nuclear route. As recently as Monday, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin reaffirmed that “the US extended deterrence commitment to the [Republic of Korea] is ironclad”, and highlighted the two allies’ “determination” to confront the North Korean issue.

02:29

US, South Korea defence chiefs vow to step up drills to counter North Korea

US, South Korea defence chiefs vow to step up drills to counter North Korea

President Yoon and his supporters, however, seem sceptical. Given North Korea’s ability to strike continental US, many question whether Washington would be willing and even able to protect South Korea in case of a North Korean attack aimed at the US and South Korea at the same time.

This concern, although valid, should not be the reason for Seoul to turn to nuclear weapons. Doing so would only result in a domino effect of arms proliferation in the region, leading to an increasingly militarised environment in Asia and the risk of conflicts that could affect major parts of the globe.

Instead of focusing on military options, South Korea and the West must place more importance on reviving diplomacy and on the long-term consequences of their policies for the region and the world.

Gabriela Bernal is a North Korea analyst and PhD scholar at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, South Korea

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