North and South Korea must return to peaceful dialogue after year of tit-for-tat escalation raises nuclear risks

Stakes are never higher as North Korea grows bolder in developing its nuclear weapons, passes a first-strike law, and cosies up to Russia and China
Petty behaviour by the South only makes it impossible to make any serious demands on Pyongyang

Gabriela Bernal

Published: 3:30am, 29 Dec 2022

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The year 2022 has seen major shifts in the wrong direction on the Korean peninsula, with the North and South engaging in a tit-for-tat escalation campaign that continues to this day.

With the war in Ukraine and intensifying US-China rivalry, the opportunity has arisen for North Korea to more closely align itself with old-time allies in Beijing and Moscow. Meanwhile, levels of trilateral cooperation not seen in years were also observed south of the 38th parallel between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.

With these two blocs fiercely pitted against each other, there seem to be few options for diplomacy and cooperation. This is problematic since the stakes have never been higher on the Korean peninsula. This year, North Korea showed the world its rapid level of missile and military technology development, ability to conduct continuous and multi-front military provocations, and growing arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, despite international sanctions.

North Korea has been particularly bold this year and this attitude was on full display on many occasions. An important example is the nuclear-use law adopted in September, under which North Korea could conduct a pre-emptive nuclear strike under certain conditions. What’s more, the law essentially scrapped any possibility of the denuclearisation of North Korea for now.

These are all major developments that have direct implications on not just the security situation on the Korean peninsula, but also on the wider region and potentially the world.

Another reason for concern is the speed at which North Korea’s weapons arsenal and military capabilities have developed in the past year. On November 18, for example, North Korea successfully launched a “new type” Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a highly lofted trajectory. The tests showed Pyongyang’s capability to deliver nuclear warheads against the continental United States and the constant modifications being made to its missiles.

This photo provided by the North Korean government shows the test-firing of what it says is a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile at Pyongyang International Airport on November 18. Photo: Korean Central News Agency / Korea News Service via AP

Then, on December 19, North Korean media announced a successful “important, final-stage test” for the development of a military reconnaissance satellite, expected to be completed by next April.

Another way North Korea has strengthened its position this year has been through support from Russia and China at the United Nations. Russia and China vetoed a US proposal in May for additional sanctions targeting North Korea. Although North Korea has been criticising such international sanctions for years, this is the first time that the two UN Security Council members came together at such a high level to directly block more sanctions against North Korea.

Diplomats at a meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss missile tests by North Korea on May 11 in New York. Photo: AFP

North Korea not only welcomed this support but also took the opportunity to strengthen its ties with both China and Russia. On August 1, North Korean Defence Minister Ri Yong-gil sent a message to his Chinese counterpart, Wei Fenghe, emphasising “that the Korean People’s Army would closely wage strategic and tactic-coordinated operations” with the People’s Liberation Army.

Not long after, in a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin by Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader hailed Moscow and Pyongyang’s growing “strategic and tactical cooperation, support and solidarity”.

That North Korea described cooperation with these countries using terms such as “strategic” and “tactical” points to the deepening of ties with its old-time allies, a trend likely to continue in the new year.

As the South Korean administration of President Yoon Suk-yeol takes an increasingly pro-US and Japan stance, some scholars have warned against the perils of Seoul joining a “bloc” that pits it strictly against its northern neighbour.

While the former Moon Jae-in administration tried to pursue a more balanced foreign policy, not choosing between Beijing and Washington, the Yoon government has clearly positioned itself in America’s corner.

01:14

South Korean President says China has the power to denuclearise North Korea

Repeated bilateral military drills with the United States and trilateral exercises involving Japan this year are cases in point. This choosing of sides has further embittered the leadership in Pyongyang, which has become all the more sceptical of engaging diplomatically with either Seoul or Washington.

The North-South division on the Korean peninsula seems deeper than ever. In recent months, for example, North Korea has referred to the South Korean president as an “idiot” and as “shameless”, and described his “audacious initiative” aimed at North Korea as “the height of absurdity”.

In turn, South Korea has chosen to respond to North Korea’s military actions through its own series of military provocations in recent months. The South even chose to respond to North Korea’s publishing of two satellite photos of Seoul and Incheon last week by sharing its own coloured satellite image of Pyongyang to prove to the North that its technology is superior.

01:42

South Korea opens fire as North Korea drones cross the border

This kind of petty behaviour by the South only emboldens the North further and drags South Korea down to a level where it becomes impossible to make any serious demands on North Korea.

With all that has happened in 2022, it is difficult to see a way where the two Koreas can return to diplomacy and amicable talks in 2023. Of course, this is not impossible. But for tensions to be eased and diplomatic engagement to become possible once more, the dangerous confrontations deepening the decades-long division of the two Koreas must be eased.

For this, tit-for-tat actions and threats must stop, and the priority placed back on building trust, regular communication and the establishment of a more realistic, long-term policy for dealing with North Korea in 2023 and beyond.

Gabriela Bernal is a North Korea analyst and PhD scholar at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, South Korea