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A People’s Liberation Army member looks through binoculars during military drills in waters around Taiwan in response to a visit by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on August 5. Taiwan’s frigate Lan Yang is seen in the background. Photo: AP
Opinion
Zhihua Zheng
Zhihua Zheng

Kevin McCarthy visit? How Beijing can nip the next Taiwan Strait crisis in the bud

  • Rather than repeat the military drills sparked by Nancy Pelosi’s visit, Beijing can make official the baselines of Taiwan’s territorial waters, clarifying the scope of China’s sovereignty
  • Only when Beijing and Washington can clearly see each other’s boundaries will they not sleepwalk into war
Zhihua Zheng
Zhihua Zheng
Why you can trust SCMP
What would happen if Kevin McCarthy, upon becoming Speaker of the US House of Representatives as widely expected, leads an official delegation to Taiwan? Will Beijing tolerate another Speaker’s visit or see it as a new normal? How can Beijing and Washington avoid sleepwalking towards war?
For a start, the Biden administration’s willingness to obstruct McCarthy’s potential visit appears low. US officials have repeatedly said the White House cannot stop the Speaker of the House, whoever that may be, from visiting Taiwan. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, addressing the issue in August, said: “Congress is an independent, coequal branch of government.”

From Beijing’s perspective, this, of course, is a very convenient excuse for Washington – the separation of powers is indeed the reality in the United States. But a Speaker’s visit to Taiwan still requires the cooperation of the executive branch, especially the defence ministry’s in providing military aircraft and other resources, without which the mission is impossible.

Against the backdrop of a serious lack of strategic mutual trust, Beijing’s simplest interpretation of Washington’s intention, if it helped McCarthy’s visit to take place, can only be the further “hollowing out” of the one-China policy.

Given what has gone on before, the possibility of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in Taiwan refusing to welcome the new Speaker’s visit is also extremely low.

Is there a better way for Beijing to head off the crisis that McCarthy’s visit could bring? What kind of response can reflect the principle of waging struggles “on just grounds, to our advantage, and with restraint” that the Communist Party has advocated?

Then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (left) speaks during a meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei on August 3, on a visit to Taiwan that has riled Beijing. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office via AP
As we know, Beijing’s diplomatic resistance to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last August did not work. The post-visit military blockade and exercises around Taiwan were criticised by Washington as unilateral changes to the status quo.
Under current circumstances, a recommended approach for Beijing may be to promulgate the baselines of territorial waters encircling Taiwan. Beijing has already announced the baselines of part of its territorial sea near the mainland, and those of the territorial sea near the Paracel Islands on May 15, 1996.
On September 10, 2012, Beijing also issued a statement to establish the baselines of the territorial sea of the Diaoyu Islands. So far, Beijing has been hesitant to do the same for the Taiwan region. On February 10, 1999, the Taiwan authorities themselves announced the territorial sea baselines of Taiwan’s main and affiliated islands.
According to Article 16 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), party states are obliged to draw, publish and deposit with the UN secretary-general charts and/or lists of geographical coordinates of points concerning straight baselines, the outer limits of their maritime zones and delimited maritime boundaries.

One purpose of this provision is to help those foreign ships and aircraft engaged in an international voyage to avoid unintentional entry into the territorial sea or national airspace of a coastal state. Obviously, the publication and depositing of baselines information is not only the right of a coastal state but also a treaty obligation.

Under Washington’s one-China policy, the US recognises the People’s Republic of China as the sole, legitimate government of China, and acknowledges Beijing’s view that Taiwan is a part of China.

One-China principle is the bedrock of peace across the Taiwan Strait

A total of 181 countries, the US included, have established diplomatic relations with China, based on recognising that there is but one China in the world and that Taiwan is part of China. China is a party to the UNCLOS, and Beijing has the right and also the obligation to publish the baselines of the territorial waters of Taiwan and its affiliated islands.

Announcing the baselines of territorial waters in the region will clarify the scope of China’s sovereignty over the land, sea and airspace in Taiwan’s region. It will reaffirm to the international community that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China. It could help Beijing to prevent interference and curb irresponsible provocations by drawing a clear red line.

02:04

PLA scrambles record 71 warplanes near Taiwan in response to increased US military aid

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Some may raise concerns that a Taiwan baseline announcement could lead to tension and conflict. But the announcement itself should not cause conflict – only an exercising of jurisdiction based upon it may do so. Moreover, it is possible to reduce provocations and conflicts by simply knowing each other’s bottom line.

It should be noted that Taiwan’s authority has announced its own baselines for the Taiwan region, but not for the mainland. This may have given the international community the impression of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan”. After all, the promulgation of baselines of territorial waters is an act of sovereignty, and local authorities do not have such power.

As long as Taiwan adheres to the one-China principle, its action of promulgating its baseline may be tolerated by Beijing. But major political changes have taken place on the island. The ruling DPP authorities have refused to recognise the 1992 consensus, continuing to push Taiwan’s independence education. People fear that Taiwan’s independence movement is a journey of no return.

The announcement of the baseline of territorial waters in the Taiwan region has political, legal and military implications. Only when Beijing and Washington can clearly see each other’s national boundaries will they not sleepwalk into war.

Dr Zhihua Zheng is a research associate professor and head of the East Asia Marine Policy Project at the Centre for Japanese Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

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