After the 2022 summit season in Southeast Asia, the US and China remain locked in a geopolitical tussle. But a middle-power movement is taking shape that could help prevent the tense rivalry from breaking into a world war.
In the November US midterm elections, Americans voted to deny the Republican Party a “red wave”, handing President Joe Biden a rare electoral success.
Buoyed by this domestic victory, Biden travelled to the G20 Summit and struck a cordial note with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who had also just consolidated his rule at home. But the warm exchanges in Bali did not thaw the frosty Sino-US relationship.
In fact, the ongoing geopolitical reconfiguration remains tense. America is determined to ward off any challenges to its global dominance. But Biden’s campaign to defend the free world, framed as a battle of “democracy versus autocracy”, is in danger of trapping the world into a protracted state of conflict.
The Ukraine crisis, for instance, has reached a critical juncture. In the war against autocracies like Russia, is there room for negotiated peace?
On China, Biden’s strategy is to rally like-minded allies to contain its Asian rival. But it remains unclear how and to what extent an autocratic China can and should be tamed. Would containing Beijing include defending Taiwan? A military conflict across the Taiwan Strait would surely plunge an already crisis-plagued world into greater turmoil.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) shakes hands with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, on November 14. Photo: Reuters
Like the post-9/11 “war on terror”, today’s campaign against autocracies could morph into another perpetual war with no identifiable end. As it is, the Ukraine conflict is drawing on with mounting costs. But there is also increasing criticism that the risks and repercussions from the US-led campaign against autocracies are not shared evenly.
In Europe, for example, as the depth of winter approaches, some are asking why they are bearing the brunt of the fallout from Russian gas sanctions. And the Netherlands, among other allies, is reluctant to align with US restrictions on chips sale to China, given that America’s hi-tech war with China could inflict disproportionate damage to their national interests.
In early December, following in German Chancellor Olaf Schulz’s footsteps, European Council President Charles Michal visited Beijing. Both leaders sought to maintain economic ties with China even as they remain critical of its human rights record. With these delicate balancing acts, some US allies are taking preventive countermeasures amid growing concerns of a damaging decoupling of world economies.
In fact, some are voicing suspicions and objections that America’s economic nationalism has usurped Biden’s pledge to save the liberal world order. During his recent state visit to Washington, French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that the Inflation Reduction Act, with its “America first” underpinning, contravenes the spirit of free trade.
The recent defeat of the UN Human Right Council’s proposal to debate the Xinjiang crisis is another setback in America’s attempt to isolate China. Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, voted against the motion. The result is less a vindication of Beijing’s handling of the Xinjiang conundrum and more an indictment against Washington’s perceived exploitation of the situation for its own gain.
As chair of the G20 this year, Indonesia stepped onto the world stage to assume the role of peacemaker. President Joko Widodo successfully hosted the Bali summit, culminating in a joint declaration that addressed the Ukraine war, among other issues.
A cornerstone of Jakarta’s international diplomacy is its non-aligned credentials. Together with fellow member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Indonesia has long advocated an inclusive, multipolar world order.
Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo speaks to journalists as he arrives at the G20 Summit in Bali, on November 13. Photo: AFP
At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Bangkok, in a surprise adaptation of the Asean refrain, France’s Macron warned against forcing countries to “choose sides” in the great power rivalry. In a recent Foreign Affairs magazine article, Scholz reiterated that Germany’s stance is to engage rather than isolate China.
This shift to “neutrality” underscores long-standing European unease with the American depiction of the ongoing great power rivalry as a civilizational clash of “good versus evil”. And, lately, anxiety is growing that Washington’s evermore hawkish strategy to contain China is pushing humanity to the precipice of a world war.
Herein lies a crucial development: as in 1955 in Bandung, the non-aligned ethos has been rekindled in 2022 in Bali. But, this time, middle powers of the Global North are joining compatriots in the Global South, in the rallying cry for peace over war and coexistence over confrontation.
To some extent, a similar longing for the middle ground influenced the US midterm elections, with the outcome largely seen as a repudiation of the prevailing toxic politics and extreme partisanship.
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Mainland China conducts military live-fire drills as tensions soar over Pelosi visit to Taiwan
Mainland China conducts military live-fire drills as tensions soar over Pelosi visit to Taiwan
But America’s body polity is still fractured. The incoming Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, has pledged “no blank check” for Ukraine. On China, however, the Republicans appear determined to out-hawk the Democrats in confronting Beijing. McCarthy had previously expressed a wish to visit Taipei, as Nancy Pelosi did, a move that would surely escalate tensions across the strait.
US-Sino rivalry remains tense. And the Biden-Xi handshake moment in Bali did not ease that tension. But a consequential development has emerged from the week of summits in Southeast Asia, namely, an ensemble of middle powers, including some US allies, who are stepping forward as bridge-builders.
The global community must build on this momentum, to prevent the new cold war from flaring into a hot war. More than ever, the developed and developing worlds must come together to save the 21st century from impending calamities.
Peter T.C. Chang is deputy director of the Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
