Three reasons foreign policy driven by security concerns will make the world poorer and more dangerous
- The world order that drove globalisation and allowed prosperity to spread is crumbling and being replaced with one based on security rather than economics
- New security arrangements can lead to a spiral of mutual suspicion, stifle growth and innovation, and hamper our ability to address global threats like climate change
Will the new world that emerges from this tumult be prosperous and peaceful? Will we be able to cooperate and manage global challenges, or will globalisation and the international order that supports it collapse?
In 1945, architects of the post-war order such as US President Harry Truman and Secretary of State Dean Acheson pondered similar questions as they surveyed a world destroyed by two global conflicts. A decade earlier, the Great Depression brought a vicious spiral of protectionism, economic hardship and nationalism that crippled global trade and sowed the seeds of war.
Economic cooperation was the foundation of the recovery from World War II, and it also helped us rebuild from the 2008 global financial crisis. Unfortunately, as we begin to emerge from the pandemic, current trends more resemble the isolationist 1930s than the post-World War II period.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a sea change in foreign policy across Europe. The European Union plans to create a rapid deployment force, and countries are abandoning long-held taboos. Germany is increasing its military spending, and Finland and Sweden are moving towards joining Nato.
The picture is more mixed in Asia. The region has become a focus of economic multilateralism, but at the same time security concerns are rising.
The past two years have shown how vulnerable we are to supply chain disruptions. Shifting priorities from efficiency to resilience and security is understandable and desirable, but now there is a danger the pendulum will swing to the other extreme.
As new security initiatives create risk, curtailing free trade and investment also weakens the benefits of these linkages. Putin’s invasion shows economic cooperation doesn’t prevent war, but it can still be a force for stability by linking countries’ interests and humanising trade partners.
Second, turning inward will stifle growth and innovation at a time when the global economy is already under severe strain from inflation, supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. This risks tipping billions of people into poverty, destitution and hunger.
Finally, turning our focus from economic cooperation to traditional security concerns will hurt our collective ability to address global threats. Progress on developing solutions will falter if US and European scientists collaborate less with their Chinese and Russian counterparts. Our ability to implement joint solutions will also suffer if global cohesion and governance mechanisms are further weakened.
World leaders must recognise these risks and their power to shape what kind of world emerges from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. We must not allow security concerns to dominate policymaking and make our world more fragmented and militarised.
Instead, we must find ways to ensure economic cooperation thrives so we can build a world that, even if divided, is peaceful, prosperous and better protected from planetary disasters.
Wang Huiyao is the founder of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a Beijing-based non-governmental think tank