Four reasons Joe Biden and Donald Trump will not differ much on US trade policy
- Developments in Biden’s first 100 days in office suggest a swift return to the pre-Trump status quo of US relations with the rest of the world is unlikely
- While the Biden team is conducting a thorough review of Trump’s trade actions, it is clear there will be a high degree of continuity
This scepticism about the US has begun to undermine Biden’s ability to galvanise coordinated trade action as the US has done in the past.
Second, there will be no revival of big trade deals, but sectoral agreements are likely.
In reality, Hillary Clinton, his opponent in 2016, was also opposed to the TPP, meaning the demise of the agreement was a foregone conclusion. As secretary of state, Clinton was initially a vociferous promoter of the TPP.
Biden’s tepid enthusiasm for big trade deals is clear. The new administration’s 2021 Trade Policy Agenda, reported to Congress last month, did not call for an extension of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA), which is scheduled to expire in July. TPA provides for a straight up-or-down vote in Congress on trade deals and is generally regarded as a prerequisite for securing passage of any full-scale free trade agreement.
The absence of big, full-blown free trade agreements does not mean trade negotiators will be idle, though. Smaller, sectoral deals aimed at addressing specific areas of concern are likely.
Third, there will be a fair amount of continuity. One aspect of Trump’s trade legacy the Biden administration is embracing is the use of tariffs and the imposition of technology restrictions designed to blunt China’s pursuit of technological superiority through the use of predatory tactics.
Raimondo had previously stated her desire to maintain Trump administration restrictions on Huawei Technologies Co., and more recently she said the Commerce Department had added seven Chinese supercomputing companies to the restrictive “entities list”.
These moves represent a tacit endorsement of some of the most consequential policies pursued by the previous administration. While the Biden team is conducting a thorough review of Trump’s trade actions, it is clear there will be a high degree of continuity.
Presidential policy agendas laid out during the first 100 days in office frequently look far different by the end of the term, owing to the intrusion of unforeseen events, changed political fortunes after midterm Congressional elections and the success or failure of initial priorities.
Based on what we have seen thus far, here is what we can expect in trade policy in the next 12 to 18 months: a fair amount of continuity with the previous administration, especially regarding China, tariffs and tech policy; no major new trade deals; and an improved cooperative relationship with the EU and Asian allies, but one which falls considerably short of the hoped-for united front as traditional partners view the US with far more sceptical eyes.
Stephen Olson is a senior research fellow at the Hinrich Foundation