Letters | Moody’s vs Hong Kong officials: who’s right about the economy?
- Readers discuss Moody’s downgrade of Hong Kong’s credit outlook, giving RCEP more attention, and one easy way to make taxis more competitive
Whichever perspective one leans towards, it is widely recognised that understanding economic trends is complex – and even the most astute economists can misjudge, as history reminds us with Irving Fisher’s ill-timed assertion of a “permanently high plateau” for the stock market, made just days before the market crash of 1929.
Observations from high street also warrant a judicious appraisal. An increase in vacant shopfronts in Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui could be interpreted as a sign of immediate economic malaise, yet it may also be attributable to the inherently sluggish nature of rental adjustments, which often lag behind the economic cycle.
Navigating the macroeconomic climate becomes even more complex when considering the varied fortunes of different sectors. The retail sector struggles amid changing consumer behaviours and a downturn in tourism, while research and technology thrive, buoyed by government incentives. These contrasting sectoral narratives weave a complex economic tapestry.
While the economic realities in Hong Kong are multifaceted, the narratives – regardless of their precision – have the power to shape economic outcomes. Nobel laureate Robert J. Shiller, in Narrative Economics, emphasises that when a particular economic narrative gains traction, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Even simple economic stories can profoundly affect collective behaviour and influence individuals’ spending, saving and investing decisions.
For policymakers in Hong Kong, the challenge goes further than simply interpreting economic data; it entails formulating a narrative that engages the general public. If the populace adopts the government’s optimistic stance, it could enhance consumer confidence and spur increased expenditure and investment, thus potentially invigorating economic growth.
Rob Yau, Kennedy Town
China should put RCEP before the belt and road
US-China relations bring to mind the Chinese fable of the tussle between the clam and the snipe. If both do not let go, they will perish. Similarly, a decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies will create repercussions for the world, including themselves.
I believe the Belt and Road Initiative should be shelved for the time being, until China has enough funding to satisfy the appetites of developing counties in the queue. The cart of the belt and road should be put behind the horse, while RCEP is the locomotive that will bring wealth to all the nations in the partnership.
Lo Wai Kong, Tsuen Wan
To improve taxis, start with its lost-and-found system
To help passengers who inadvertently leave their belongings in taxis, Commercial Radio operates a lost-and-found hotline and online platform that broadcasts information about lost items, in the hope that taxi drivers who hear the message will return them.
Under the Road Traffic (Public Service Vehicles) Regulations, drivers who find an item left in a public transport should take the item to a police station within six hours, unless its owner has claimed it. However, there does not seem to be data on the type of items recovered or the number of items returned with the police’s help.
The Transport Department should work with the police to collect such data to assess the current system’s effectiveness.
Given the user-friendly feature of the Uber app for retrieving lost items, we urge the government to emulate Uber’s approach and develop a similar platform that facilitates contact information exchange between passengers and drivers, while taking the necessary measures to safeguard privacy.
Moreover, promoting public vigilance during travel and encouraging e-payment would help to expedite driver identification.
We believe these enhancements will help the taxi drivers stay competitive against their Uber counterparts.
Man Chak Hei, Ku Tak Chun and Wong Siu Chung, Kowloon Tong