India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, is counting on his self-portrayal as a strong leader to win a second term in seven weeks of elections that began on Thursday. His rock star approach to campaigning and nationalist rhetoric targeting arch-rival Pakistan have made him the most popular political figure in the country, but the world’s biggest democracy also has a highly fragmented political system. He has tactfully avoided focusing on the economy and creating jobs, the issues that won him office. It is an understandable strategy given that unemployment has soared to the worst level in 45 years and the nation is beset by a host of economic problems and challenges.

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party government had promised to create 10 million jobs a year. The benefits of impressive rates of growth have not been filtering down to the country’s poorest people. Banks have record levels of sour debt, listless exports mean that trade gaps have widened, and private investments have plunged. Not all the problems are of his making, but it has not helped that he had high-value banknotes pulled from circulation at short notice, introduced a poorly designed and implemented goods and services tax and has steadfastly refused to join China’s “Belt and Road Initiative”.

A flare-up in violence with Pakistan in February gave Modi reason to deflect attention. The retaliatory cross-border air strikes on suspected terrorist camps he ordered after a car bombing in Kashmir that killed 44 soldiers have led to a surge in popularity; he told voters that under him, “India has emerged stronger on land, in air and in space”. There is every chance that this could swing the election, even though the economy is what bothers many Indians. That amounts to a significant challenge for main opposition leader Rahul Gandhi and his Indian National Congress party.