Where now for cross-strait relations?
Developments in Taiwan are often unpredictable, and the past year has been no exception. Thus, a review of events on the island in 2006 may provide useful insights into the future course of cross-strait events.
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian's popularity continued to wane, as numerous scandals were uncovered in the first family and the presidential office. Attacks escalated on Mr Chen from the opposition, and three recall votes were held in the legislature within six months.
Support for Mr Chen within his own party also flagged. In the summer, a group of scholars sympathetic to the Democratic Progressive Party circulated a petition urging Mr Chen to assume moral responsibility for Taiwan's democracy. In mid-November, two high-profile DPP legislators quit the party. But growing dissatisfaction with Mr Chen did not result in his removal.
DPP legislators chose not to put at risk their party's support for renomination by voting for the president's recall. Moreover, while they were angry with Mr Chen, they did not want to side with the opposition, which has doggedly sought to undermine the legitimacy of the DPP's mandate to rule.
Contrary to some expectations, widespread discontent with Mr Chen did not harm his party's performance in the mayoral and council elections last month. The results demonstrated that the DPP was a resilient party machine whose candidates and ideas still continued to attract significant voter support.
The Kuomintang has failed to capitalise on Mr Chen's quandary. Ma Ying-jeou, the party's likely nominee for president, is increasingly seen as indecisive and unprincipled. Mr Ma has yet to achieve unity in his own party, leading to doubts about his ability to bridge the ethnic divide as president.
Mainland officials continue to warn that Mr Chen may challenge Beijing's 'no-go zones' on independence. There is particular concern about his constitutional re-engineering plan. It should be evident, however, that the prospect of creating a new constitution, or even implementing changes that would antagonise Beijing, is remote under an opposition-dominated legislature.
Internal squabbles in both parties will sort themselves out to some extent this year as the presidential campaign begins in earnest. The KMT-led opposition is likely to retain its majority in the legislative elections, which may be held at the end of the year or with the presidential election next year. Nothing is certain about the outcome of the presidential election, and a DPP victory should not be ruled out.
Interaction between Taiwan and the mainland is expanding rapidly. Direct passenger charter flights during holidays have expanded, direct cargo charter flights have opened, and a non-governmental mechanism for negotiating travel by mainland tourists has been established.
Beijing should adhere closely to, and further develop, its policy of promoting peaceful unification with Taiwan. It should seek to advance co-operation with Taipei on functional issues that would benefit both sides. These include joint efforts by law enforcement agencies to clamp down on organised crime, human trafficking and smuggling of drugs and firearms; information sharing and preparation of joint response measures for infectious diseases such as bird flu; and co-operation on environmental protection and disaster relief.
At present, prospects for negotiating military confidence-building measures look bleak, but unilateral and bilateral steps could be taken to begin the process of trust-building. Furthermore, the mainland should be more transparent about its military deployments and exercises. Dialogue could be initiated by appointed security specialists, on both sides, on the content of each other's defence planning.
Finally, Beijing should establish authorised channels of communication with the DPP and the government in Taipei. The establishment of a mechanism for communication would provide confidence that messages are accurately sent and received, and diminish the possibility of misunderstandings that could heighten cross-strait tension.
Bonnie Glaser is senior associate at the Pacific Forum CSIS and the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Distributed by Pacific Forum CSIS
