To understand China’s plans for Afghanistan, take a look at Somalia
- Will the ‘Graveyard of Empires’ consume the dragon next? Terrorism concerns and its proximity to the US$63 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor make Afghanistan both a liability and an opportunity for Beijing
- China’s investments and security footprint in Somalia – where it has placed another high-risk, high-reward geopolitical bet – offer a blueprint for its likely approach
But speculation that China could play a military role in Afghanistan, including sending troops, are off the mark. In that respect, Afghanistan shares some similarities with another country in China’s orbit: Somalia. The African nation is part of a bold Chinese geopolitical bet for a high-risk, high-reward undertaking, and could shed some light on what Beijing could do next in Afghanistan besides promoting an Afghan-led and -owned solution.
Despite all this, geography is destiny, and Somalia’s coast along the strategic Gulf of Aden overlooks one of the world’s most-travelled sea lanes. With the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint nearby, Somalia is a pawn in a new “great game” – one that is unfolding in the Horn of Africa.
On the Arabian peninsula across the Red Sea, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are all strengthening their economic and security relations with Somalia. Turkey is in the mix as well, operating the country’s air and seaports as well as training its special forces troops. China, for now, has limited its engagement to diplomacy and economics. Beijing has stuck to its prognosis that economic development is a panacea for any security problem, but that might not last much longer as jockeying for influence continues in the pivotal region.
China is nonetheless firmly fixed on establishing a footprint in Somalia before the country is stabilised. A key tool for this effort is the use of Chinese private security contractors to protect the country’s investments there. The embassy, for example, has contracted its security to local militias. Chinese private security companies in the country for anti-piracy operations and VIP close security protection are eager for a bigger piece of the pie – they are bidding aggressively in Beijing for contracts to provide security for diplomatic staff.
According to Chinese official statements, there have been clear signs of progress in Somalia over the past few years, and China is eager to benefit from the peace dividend. Beijing is banking on Somalia’s return as a maritime logistics hub, thus making it a key component in the Maritime Silk Road component of the belt and road.
If the private security contractor blueprint in Somalia continues to move this progress along, Beijing could be encouraged to duplicate this approach in different complex environments, from Afghanistan to the Sahel, that are part of China’s Belt and Road of Anxiety.
Afghanistan and Somalia share similarities in terms of geostrategic positioning, as well as high risks. The latter could have belt and road credentials in the long run, Afghanistan does not. Nevertheless, one has lessons for the other as both sides affect Beijing’s core interests in different ways – Kabul because of its proximity to China’s borders and Mogadishu because it is a key node in the belt and road’s expansion in Africa.
The successful implementation of investments and security stabilisation measures taken in Somalia may well help China kill two birds with one stone.