Trump-Kim failed, but can Japan’s Abe reach North Korea through China?

With Washington and Pyongyang in a stalemate, Tokyo has an opportunity regarding Japanese abductees in North Korea
But if Abe is next to ‘face Chairman Kim’, he’ll need a hotline to Pyongyang. Who’s he going to call?

Rupakjyoti Borah

Published: 3:44pm, 4 Mar 2019

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Last week’s failed summit in Hanoi between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is likely to have brought about a sense of relief in Tokyo.

Japan feared in the run-up to the leaders’ second meeting that Trump would make easy concessions to Pyongyang and had made clear it would not lift unilateral economic sanctions imposed in protest against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes.

It is unclear if and when Washington will restart denuclearisation talks with Pyongyang but what are Japan’s options going forward?

For a start, PM Shinzo Abe has indicated that he would need to “face Chairman Kim myself next”.

However, getting into talks with Pyongyang would be difficult for Tokyo without some measure of progress on the issue of Japanese abductees – Japan has listed about 17 men and women it says were taken by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 1980s. But Pyongyang says that only 13 were abducted, five were returned in 2002, while the remaining eight are dead (though the North has never provided any conclusive evidence).

US President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi. Photo: AP

It is possible that with the current stalemate with Washington, Pyongyang may be tempted to make some overtures to Tokyo. For Abe, the North Korean imbroglio also represents a huge opportunity. If he can bring back the remaining Japanese in North Korean custody before he steps down from power in 2021 he will cement his position in Japanese history.

Given that Japan under Abe has also reached out to Beijing, Tokyo may try to reach out to North Korea with help from Beijing. Last year in October, Abe made an official visit to Beijing to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the signing of a Treaty of Peace and Friendship between Japan and China. This was the first visit by a Japanese PM to China in seven years.

In addition, with both Beijing and Tokyo facing tough times on the economic front vis-à-vis Washington, Beijing could help set up a back-channel between Tokyo and Pyongyang, so that the two sides could test the waters, before the top leadership agree to meet (if at all). For Tokyo, things have quietened down ever since the US and the DPRK agreed to sit on the negotiating table. Before that, it was in 2017 that the North sent missiles flying over Japanese territory twice and had also threatened to “sink” Japan. However, the Singapore summit between Trump and Kim in June last year brought little cheer for Japan.

On the other hand, Tokyo’s worries were compounded by the fact that the US and the DPRK got talking without agreeing on any fixed timeline for eventual denuclearisation by the North. Pyongyang had also not broached the subject of short and intermediate range ballistic missiles, which have Japan in their crosshairs.

North Korean students read about the Hanoi summit between North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP

Trump seemed only to be concerned about the long-range missiles and nuclear weapons of the North, which are a direct threat to the continental United States and to US territories like Guam.

Though the rapidly fraying ties between Japan and South Korea seem to have added to Tokyo’s troubles, the failed summit in Hanoi may give an opportunity to Tokyo to work the hotlines to Seoul and work on a unified front with respect to North Korea. For Japan, the worst option would be Trump clinching a deal with the North (without denuclearisation) and the two Koreas sorting out all thorny issues, leaving only Japan in the lurch in the region.

Trump is a maverick and could go either way on the North. While he has lavished praise on the North Korean leader, he will be under tremendous pressure at home (and from within his own government) not to make any unilateral concessions to the North, especially as election season approaches in the US. Pyongyang’s economic condition will also determine how long it can withstand US pressure.

Even if Tokyo were to reach out to Pyongyang on its own at the PM level, it would not mean much without the US in tow. Trump is likely to visit Japan in May after Crown Prince Naruhito takes over as Emperor and again in June for the G20 summit. Abe would like to use these occasions to put pressure on the North through the US under Trump.

However, Tokyo could now look towards the backchannel with Pyongyang, with help from Beijing and Seoul. Sooner, rather than later, Japan would need to face the elephant in the room: North Korea, if it is to sort out all issues, including the issue of Japanese abductees.

Rupakjyoti Borah is with the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. The views expressed are personal. Twitter @rupakj

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