Explainer | What to know about Australia’s Aukus subs and why it’s causing anxiety in Asia
- Southeast Asian nations are concerned that Australia’s nuclear-propelled submarines may mainly operate in their region, particularly in the South China Sea
- Critics worry that the deal could set a dangerous precedent that can be used by other states to hide highly enriched uranium or plutonium from international oversight
Starting this year, Australian military and civilian personnel will integrate with US and British navies and submarine industrial bases.
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Critics have also raised concerns that the Aukus deal may undermine the non-proliferation regime, as it is the first time a loophole in the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been used to transfer fissile material and nuclear technology from a nuclear weapon state to a non-weapons state.
Here’s what you need to know about the Aukus pact and its implications for Asia.
What was revealed about the deal?
The programme would start with a A$6 billion investment over the next four years to expand a major submarine base and the country’s submarine shipyards, and to train skilled workers, said Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
“This will be an Australian sovereign capability built by Australians, commanded by the Royal Australian Navy and sustained by Australian workers in Australian shipyards,” he said in San Diego, California on Monday.
Albanese also said the scale, complexity and economic significance of the programme was comparable to the creation of the Australian automotive industry in the post-war period.
The total cost of the programme will account for around 0.15 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product each year and would create 20,000 jobs in Australia over three decades.
“Australia can’t afford not to do this … it will be worth every cent when it comes to our national security, our national economy,” said Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who called the government’s decision “a game-changing investment”.
In the first part of the programme, the US and UK will train Australian officers and engineers to operate nuclear-powered submarines, before the UK and Australia begin production and operation of the “trilaterally developed” submarine class.
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Britain intends on delivering the first SSN-Aukus, which is what the new class of submarines are called, by the late 2030s as Australia begins construction later this decade to deliver the first boat by the early 2040s.
After that, one sub will be built every two years in Australia until the late 2050s.
The HMAS Stirling, a Royal Australian Navy base situated on the west coast of Australia, will also host a rotational presence of British and US nuclear-powered submarines to build Australia’s experience.
What are the issues over nuclear proliferation?
The deal sparked concerns that it would set a dangerous precedent that can be used by other states to hide highly enriched uranium, or plutonium, the core of a nuclear weapon, from international oversight.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations nuclear watchdog, urged the three states to implement safeguards and remain committed to global nuclear non-proliferation.
“In their communications, the Aukus Parties reaffirmed their previously stated commitment that maintaining the integrity of the nuclear non-proliferation regime and Agency safeguards remains a core objective in relation to Aukus,” it stated.
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The Aukus scheme uses a loophole in paragraph 14 of the NPT that allows fissile material utilised for non-explosive military purposes, like naval propulsion, to be exempt from inspections and monitoring by the IAEA.
Before the announcement of the deal, the Aukus partners had held discussions with the IAEA about the plans and taken steps to limit proliferation risks.
Why are Asian countries concerned?
In a series of tweets, the Indonesian foreign ministry said it expected Australia to “remain consistent in fulfilling its obligations under the NPT and IAEA safeguards” and develop a verification mechanism that was effective, transparent and non-discriminatory.
Meanwhile, the Malaysian foreign ministry warned about a possible “arms race” in the region, urging states to refrain from any provocation.
Experts who spoke to This Week in Asia say the deal, which gives more muscle to Australia’s naval capabilities, is not seen as helpful, given that there are already measures in place to deal with China and such a move might be seen as antagonistic.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, international relations professor at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University said previously that Asean had become increasingly split on the US-China rivalry, with most member states having strong economic ties with China but depending on the US for security.
With the presence of China’s nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine fleet already active across Southeast Asian waters, this may spell trouble for states in the region, some experts told This Week in Asia previously.
What is Australia doing to allay Asia’s concerns?
As a “middle power” like most of the countries in the region, Wong said: “We seek to acquire this capability in order to help keep the peace. We want a peaceful, stable, prosperous region, as Singapore, as Malaysia, as Indonesia do.”
Australia seeks to “replace an existing and ageing submarine capability with a new capability, which is nuclear propulsion, very different to nuclear-armed”, she said.
Responding to a question about China’s views and the possibility of destabilising, instead of stabilising, the region, Wong reiterated the reason for acquiring nuclear-power submarines.
“We want a region where no single country is dominated, (and) no single country dominates,” she said.
But the move may destabilise the security situation in the region, according to a Singapore-based analyst.
“The deal will heighten tensions with China despite Canberra’s attempts to restore some degree of good relations with China,” said Alan Chong, an associate professor at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
He added that Southeast Asia’s nuclear free zone may be undermined if Australian nuclear-powered submarines patrol there.
But Chong expects a muted response from Asean, as “they do not want to antagonise both Beijing and Canberra”.