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Samsung Electronics unveils the Galaxy S20 Ultra 5G smartphone in San Francisco, California, February 11, 2020. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Michael Davies
Michael Davies

5G network operators will need to think big to justify the huge price tag

  • For dedicated followers of entertainment, 5G speeds can be a big draw for virtual reality devotees and gamers
  • For operators, making 5G pay is a big challenge because the network investment is so significant.

With near warfare breaking out among telecoms rivals over whose network offers the best 5G, and the global feud between Five Eyes members over putative national security concerns related to the adoption of Huawei technology reaching boiling point, the real benefits of these next-generation services can get completely lost in all the noise.

In the midst of this confusion, what does 5G mean for consumers and businesses?

Since the arrival of the mobile phone in the 1980s there has never been so much overstated publicity about a new technology. Take the 3 network’s latest video, which presents a veritable cornucopia of virtual reality, fulsome fun and folderol.

The message that seems to emerge from all the promotional clatter generated by the 3 network’s ad is that an Aladdin’s magic cave is about to be opened, borrowing for its inspiration from just about every cinematic influence over the past 30 years, including Blade Runner and Total Recall. 

Despite the dizzying cinematic cross references of 3’s video – and one likely needs to be a certain age to catch them all – the big challenge has to be to monetise this huge new investment because the benefits come with a huge price tag.

GSMA Intelligence forecasts that by 2025, network operators worldwide will have spent US$1.3 trillion in capex, presenting them with a significant challenge when, as most industry commentators recognise, 4G is good enough for most customers.

With most of the initial benefits of 5G being modest at best for most ordinary people, where does the ultimate value of introducing higher baud rates really lie?

Nubia's 5G gaming phone has a screen with a super-smooth 144Hz refresh rate

For network operators, the commercial payoff from 5G will be dependent on their working with a myriad of business partners, to realise the potential of creating significant value together, and then capturing for themselves enough of the value to make the venture worthwhile.

Certainly, for 5G operators, the amount of investment they must make means that market growth simply cannot be about the latest killer app proposition.

Instead, one needs to think about wholly new levels of investment in innovation, in intrapreneurship and in entrepreneurship, and likely entirely new commercial players being folded into the mix. As a guide, think of the many potential applications for IoT, and the range of new opportunities presented by the automotive and entertainment sectors.

For the would-be dedicated followers of marketing hyperbole, 5G network’s numbers promise much, with download speeds of more than one gigabit per second that will evolve to hit 10Gbps, more than 100 times faster than 4G.

Moreover, 5G will be able to deliver latency of less than one millisecond, tens of times faster than any 4G network – truly rendering Arthur C. Clarke’s famous quotation that “any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” into technicolour reality.

Consumers divided globally on whether to trade 5G speeds for privacy

For dedicated followers of entertainment, 5G speeds can be a big draw for virtual reality devotees and gamers. With self-driving vehicles coming into sharper relief, these speeds may also make a big difference. For users, Aladdin’s cave would seem to beckon – some day!

For operators, making 5G pay is a big challenge because the network investment is so significant. Given that 4G is plainly good enough for most mobile customers, how do network operators defeat that old marketers’ conundrum; how to make money from a product or service that does not yet exist?

What price can therefore be placed on simply having even higher download speeds? Success will likely come in the form of operators, working together with new partners developing new markets.

In Hong Kong, the Applied Science & Technology Research Institute has been greenlit by the Transport Department to conduct an autonomous vehicle trial at its Science Park to facilitate the system’s awareness monitoring within the 5G networks and to initiate research on related technologies.

Fully aware of the infrastructure support potential of 5G, and the potential of IoT machine type communications, the Hong Kong government appears to be doing all it can to support smart city type of developments, such as providing 5G equipment to thousands of government premises in readiness for new applications by mobile network operators.

Whatever new opportunities might come to fruition, Hong Kong will need to, as with the rest of the world, think big. This is a time, as the French might say, of the Grands Projets. The world waits with bated breath.

The author, a Visiting Lecturer for Strategy and Entrepreneurship at London Business School, is also an adviser to the UK, US and Australian governments on technology adoption, including 5G.

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